Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

$100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players -
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BB: $109.50
UTG: $296.05
Hero (CO): $107.95
BTN: $129.75
SB: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with A 5
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, SB raises to $9, 1 fold, Hero raises to $18, SB calls $9

Flop: ($37.00) 9 3 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $17.00, SB calls $17

Turn: ($71.00) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $72.95

25/19/1.1/28/26/(482)
3-Bet: 4.3% (7% vs CO open)
Fold to 4b: 50%

Fold to C-Bet F/T: 33 / 75

Preflop
Normally I won't mess up with tight guys, but I have a very good hand to 4b with. It has a CRE+flops well if called.

Flop
I expect a player who calls a 4b to do it with { AQ, KQ, TT and maybe JJ }. Vast majority of this range has missed. My plan was to c-bet about 1/2 or less OTF (to get some calls from A-highs) and shove the turn.

Turn
According to my plan I shoved.


Do you like my plan for this hand against this opponent?

what do you think is his range after the flopcall (according to preaction) - how often do you think he folds that on a more or less blank turn

Hero is CO with A 5
3-Bet:4.3% (7% vs CO open)
I have a very good hand to 4b with.

really?

what do you think is his range after the flopcall (according to preaction) - how often do you think he folds that on a more or less blank turn

After flopcall his range is:
- TT (6)
- maybe JJ (so let's throw 1 combo)
- some AQ too (there are 12 combos, I think he x/c with like 6)
- KQdd (1)

I think some AK combos are possible as well and he will prob x/c most of them. I don't know how many of them he may have in his 4-bet calling range, maybe 3-4?

This spot is close and close to 0EV I would say.


@blah234
What's wrong? Say he 3-bets about 6.18% vs open from CO and this range is:
{ QQ+,AKs,A8s-A2s,K9s-K5s,AKo }
He will prob 3b/5b { AK, QQ+ } - 2.6%, so 42% of the time he 3b/5b.

When I have As5s his 3-betting range shrinks from 6.18% to 5.47%.
His 3b/5b range { AK, QQ+ } also shrinks from 2.6% to 2.2%.
Now he 3b/5b 40.21% of the time.

We gained only like 2% of additional FEQ, but this is better than nothing. And if I get called I still have a chance to outflop him.

Just my opinion:
I don't think many people are calling a cbet on the flop in a 4bet pot with ace high out of position.

I think his range after calling you on the flop is pretty much always overpairs.

Depending on your image, he could easily flat preflop out of position with AA, KK, QQ - with the intention of letting you stack off with your bluffs.

His 3bet may be 6.18% vs cutoff, but that is vs all opponents and could include his 3bet % from the button, sb, and bb positions combined. I think when he 3bets from the sb this is a position he will more than likely have the strongest range from. Him flatting a 4bet out of position also indicates a strong range. I think fold to cbet and turn bet are not stats to put too much weight behind in this situation, remember this is not a standard hand, it is a 4bet hand - which a lot of tight players tend to lean towards fit or fold play, so these stats are more than likely irrelevant in this situation.

I don't think the turn card changes the hand at all, and don't really like the shove.

Also, if you really had a hand your are representing, wouldn't you want to bet a bit more on the flop that has numerous draws, like 2/3 maybe?

id prefer a hand with 2 blockers to 4bet bluff. do you always make it that small? i think a decent amount of opponents will call that rather light which is bad with your hand.
anyhow i think his range is tight enough that there isnt any need to mess with him.

you didnt include AA/KK in his range which is kinda important imo.

@lastfedor
Thanks for your input, very good post.
This sizing is my standard in 4b pots, usually even less.

@FatKing85
Yeah I 4b 2.0x IP usually, sometimes I add 1 or 2 additional BBs. I am not afraid of getting called, because A5s flops well, that's why I choose this hand instead of A7o.

I didn't include any slowplayed KK+, that's true. And this could possibly ruin the EV of my calcs.

@lastfedor
Thanks for your input, very good post.
This sizing is my standard in 4b pots, usually even less.

@FatKing85
Yeah I 4b 2.0x IP usually, sometimes I add 1 or 2 additional BBs. I am not afraid of getting called, because A5s flops well, that's why I choose this hand instead of A7o.

I didn't include any slowplayed KK+, that's true. And this could possibly ruin the EV of my calcs.

I think including QQ+ is important to consider. I know when I am in this spot I rarely have a 5bet shove range at all. I know my opponent either had the goods or he doesn't and my shove will only get called by the top of his range. Vs aggro players I just flat and let them shovel their chips over to me on the flop and turn with their strong range that I would have gotten it in with anyway, as well as their bluffs. 95% of the time they are going to at least put a cbet in, if not their whole stack. I can evaluate if I want to check raise shove flop or flat on a safe board to see a turn.

In these spots I think a lot of clues are in timing tells, bet sizing, image, player tenancies, and game flow. So logic and range deduction can only tell part of the story of course.

@blah234
What's wrong? Say he 3-bets about 6.18% vs open from CO and this range is:
{ QQ+,AKs,A8s-A2s,K9s-K5s,AKo }
He will prob 3b/5b { AK, QQ+ } - 2.6%, so 42% of the time he 3b/5b.

When I have As5s his 3-betting range shrinks from 6.18% to 5.47%.
His 3b/5b range { AK, QQ+ } also shrinks from 2.6% to 2.2%.
Now he 3b/5b 40.21% of the time.

We gained only like 2% of additional FEQ, but this is better than nothing. And if I get called I still have a chance to outflop him.

Flop
I expect a player who calls a 4b to do it with { AQ, KQ, TT and maybe JJ }. Vast majority of this range has missed. My plan was to c-bet about 1/2 or less OTF (to get some calls from A-highs) and shove the turn.

Is JJ, TT, AQ, KQ in this guy's range or not? I'm fairly sure if villain has JJ in his 3betting range and your 4 bet is -EV even if he is 3betting 7%. If we add in TT, AQ to his range of not folding hands then it's super -EV. Now add that to your spazz of spew your stack off vs 12 combos of A high which he may or may not have, it super duper -EV.

3bet number is just an average I'm going to assume he 3 bets BU open more often than CO open from that position so his range should be tighter than 7% which means even if he has the range you give him the 4 bet is probably -EV anyways given that assumption.

I think including QQ+ is important to consider. I know when I am in this spot I rarely have a 5bet shove range at all. I know my opponent either had the goods or he doesn't and my shove will only get called by the top of his range. Vs aggro players I just flat and let them shovel their chips over to me on the flop and turn with their strong range that I would have gotten it in with anyway, as well as their bluffs. 95% of the time they are going to at least put a cbet in, if not their whole stack. I can evaluate if I want to check raise shove flop or flat on a safe board to see a turn.

In these spots I think a lot of clues are in timing tells, bet sizing, image, player tenancies, and game flow. So logic and range deduction can only tell part of the story of course.

this is not the greatest idea given they will play every single ak like that and see 5 cards with their 30% equity if they want to. if you 5b you win 100% of the time versus their bluffs

How does holding an Ace effect your perception of his range, before and after the cbet?

I think including QQ+ is important to consider. I know when I am in this spot I rarely have a 5bet shove range at all.

I suggest you do some EV calculations. You're not making the highest EV play under most circumstances. Don't just believe me, I could just be some random donkey posting stuff on forums. Prove it to yourself once and for all.

Wow I didn't know I made such a big mistake. So you say the biggest mistake was to 4-bet preflop a player, whose 3-betting range is just too tight? Furthermore, probably not enough information on this guy to make a move postflop?

I suggest you do some EV calculations. You're not making the highest EV play under most circumstances. Don't just believe me, I could just be some random donkey posting stuff on forums. Prove it to yourself once and for all.

I've done the calcs in the past and know from a mathematical EV standpoint my statement of dropping a 5bet range in this spot may not seem optimal. That being said, I don't necessary think an EV calc is all we should rely on in a situation like this (I think a lot of EV calcs are actually flawed because they are often based on combos, rather than weighted values which can significantly change results). The scope of this hand should involve a lot more dynamic components and I think additional value can be made from considering alternative lines. I've just found from my experience that some people that are a little too aggro at these levels can be trapped easily by flatting pre and letting them fire away. My suggestion is not for all opponents, but if I suspect an opponent may have a large bluffing range, this is a line I will probably take. It's just my opinion that has worked a lot for me. I could be entirely wrong.

I do find also taking a flatting line, such as my suggestion, may throw off our opponent's construction of our range. This will allow them to make incorrect assumptions.

One thing I do know for sure, they usually tend to slow down their 3bet/4bet frequency vs us after spewing.

P.S. blah234, I'm aware that you are not just some random donkey.

Wow I didn't know I made such a big mistake. So you say the biggest mistake was to 4-bet preflop a player, whose 3-betting range is just too tight? Furthermore, probably not enough information on this guy to make a move postflop?

I think the biggest mistake out of all of this would be the turn shove. I just don't think you really have that much fold equity, certainly not enough for the amount you are risking for this to be a good play. The turn doesn't change the hand really much at all, so his hand vs your hand should be the same as it was on the flop in his mind.