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Party Poker $100 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1742744
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CO: $189.80
BTN: $100.00
SB: $102.20
Hero (BB): $205.10
UTG: $101.70

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with K A
1 fold, CO raises to $4, BTN calls $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $16, CO calls $12, 1 fold

Flop: ($36.50) 9 9 T (2 players)
Hero bets $18, CO calls $18

Turn: ($72.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $52, CO raises to $155.80 all in

Hero?

Villian is a loose agressive playing: VPIP/PFR/3B; 28/22/8.3
Fold cbet: 1/4 3b pot
Steal CO: 35(31), Fold resteal: 20(5), 4B:0(1) Hands: 243
Agfq% F/T/R; 42/41/44

Preflop
- I 3b for value

Flop
- When Villian calls I estimate his range to: QQ-55,AQs-A2s,K3s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,AQo-A4o,K9o+,QTo+,JTo,T9o. My plan is to cbet about half pot expect to get called here very often. And 2br any Ace, King or blank 2-5. I he will fold enough to 2br, to make this line +EV.

Turn
He call my cbet as I expected, I now put him on: TT-55,AQs-A9s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,AQo-A9o,K9o+,QTo+,JTo,T9o, 236 hands,

I think he only will call or shove my 2br with: TcTh,TcTs,ThTs,9c9d,AhQh,AhJh,Ac9c,Ad9d,Kc9c,Kd9d,QhJh,QhTh,Qc9c,Qd9d,JhTh,Jc9c,Jd9d,Tc9c,Ad9c,Ah9c,Ah9d,As9c,As9d,KQo,KcTh,KcTs,KdTc,KdTh,KdTs,KsTc,KsTh,Kc9d,Kd9c,Ks9c,Ks9d,QJo,T9o, 70 hands.

I am risking about 5 to win 7 --> he need to fold 3 out 7 times or 40% of the time, so a bet fold should be clearly +EV. But he shoves, I need 37% I only have: 31%, clear fold??

Board: 9s 9h Td 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.626% 31.43% 00.19% 816 5.00 { AcKh }
Hand 1: 68.374% 68.18% 00.19% 1770 5.00 { TcTh, TcTs, ThTs, 9c9d, AhQh, AhJh, Ac9c, Ad9d, Kc9c, Kd9d, QhJh, QhTh, Qc9c, Qd9d, JhTh, Jc9c, Jd9d, Tc9c, Ad9c, Ah9c, Ah9d, As9c, As9d, KQo, KcTh, KcTs, KdTc, KdTh, KdTs, KsTc, KsTh, Kc9d, Kd9c, Ks9c, Ks9d, QJo, T9o }

Thoughs?

Looks like you've worked out the math here already. How often does villain fold to 3b pre? I think the range you give him is ridiculously liberal. Obviously I have no reads on the guy but do you really think he is calling 3bs with K3s? Unless he is a giant station to 3b I think you can cut his 3b calling range in half at the minimum. Base on a 243 hand sample I don't think you should be assigning 3b calling ranges based on numbers.

I prefer c/j turn if villain is floating a lot to bluff turn, that way you get an extra bet out of his floats and you don't put yourself in a situation where you have to call off your stack with A-hi. You should have MASSIVE FE with a turn c/r.

Fold to 3b pre 25(8), and I assume he calls very light vs. resteals, to bluff IP on later streets(WTSD 7(41) combined with his high agfq.) so imo K3s is in there to. But maybe 8 times is to low to asume this on, (but it's 8 times vs. me fwiw)

Yea I think you're right that a c/j is higher EV. Because of the times you get the extra bet and still soime times you have 6 or less outs.

I dont know how this could ever be an easy herocall (doesnt exist btw ). The one hand you dominate and he might have is QJs. And then he will probably often show Q J which would have a good equity vs you

bet/fold > everything else right?

check jam seems spewy
bet/call seems really bad

just my 2 cents y0

bet/fold > everything else right?

check jam seems spewy
bet/call seems really bad

just my 2 cents y0

If we expect him to float here a lot then I think ch/r turn can be a good line to take

@zachd arent we risking a ton of money though? plus he might just check back a lot of hands he might fold to a double barrel
arent we generally betting our big pairs/trips on turn not check raising?
isnt this a pretty bad board for him to float anyway?

Is it right to 3bet AKo 5 handed CO vs. BB?

@mic depends on their ranges obv

Preflop
I don't like your bet sizing. You have a decent hand and your opponent is loose and call happy vs 3-bets. Charge him for doing so. Make it $18 or even $20.

Flop
Don't place any bet unless you have a plan for entire hand in your hand. I mean, don't just c-bet for the sake of c-betting.

This is actually one of the worst possible boards to c-bet with AK, because he is going to peel close to 100% of his preflop range (all pairs, all A-highs, all gutshots, OESDs and prob some more). Yes, you beat some of those, but c-betting is bad if you plan to give up on later streets (that's it is bad).

Furthermore, besides the fact this guy is loose, he is clearly a float happy player in 3b pots (providing that he stabs IP on the turn, which I think is true).

So against him, your WORST strategy is to c-bet OTF and x/f OTT. This is exactly what he wants you to do.

Your BEST strategy is to
- either x/f immediately or
- bluff catch by x/c if you expect some more stabs from worse A-highs, KQ, etc., or
- fire multiple barrels

Here w/o any further reads I would simply x/f right away OTF.


Btw, check the range you have given him one more time -> T9o, A4o, K9o - wtf man? His VPIP is 28%, he is not a total maniac.

@zachd arent we risking a ton of money though? plus he might just check back a lot of hands he might fold to a double barrel
arent we generally betting our big pairs/trips on turn not check raising?
isnt this a pretty bad board for him to float anyway?

I don't think this really a bad board for him to float. He will have a lot of QJ, KJ, KQ, and possibly other floats unless we expect him to just raise with these. I don't really like taking a ch/c line because I think it will put you in a lot of ugly spots where you are playing a complete guessing game. I think our best options here are either 2 barrel or ch/jam. In regards to whether we are generally betting our overpairs, I would say yes, but if I expect him to float a lot OTF, then taking this line with our value hands makes sense too. We get an extra bet out of his floats that might otherwise just fold OTT, and we can get the money in against hands that might have decent equity against us.

It's funny I had this exact same spot the other day. Same board and positions, everything. Except I was villain with KJo and hero called with AQo.

Based on that I feel like spite calling. I know I'm being completely biased.

Preflop
I don't like your bet sizing. You have a decent hand and your opponent is loose and call happy vs 3-bets. Charge him for doing so. Make it $18 or even $20.

Flop
Don't place any bet unless you have a plan for entire hand in your hand. I mean, don't just c-bet for the sake of c-betting.


Here w/o any further reads I would simply x/f right away OTF.


Btw, check the range you have given him one more time -> T9o, A4o, K9o - wtf man? His VPIP is 28%, he is not a total maniac.

Preflop
- Yes can bet more for value pre, I agree.

Flop
- My plan was to fire at least 2br, put had not a plan if i got raised OTT.

I also think x/f is best OTF without futher reads, because raise cbet 0(6)

True those hand is very unlikely to cal my 3bet pre.