Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

$100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players -
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $124.58
BTN: $44.70
SB: $139.17
BB: $99.00
UTG: $192.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with K J
UTG raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 2 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9.50) K J Q (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $7.12, Hero calls $7.12, BB calls $7.12

Turn: ($30.86) 4 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $20.00, BB raises to $53, UTG folds, Hero ? ? ?

UTG: 14/13/4.5/32/43/(293) | VPIP/PFR/AF/WTSD/W$SD/(Hands)
BB: 22/14/0.7/10/0/(92)

Preflop
I flatted pre, because of the 40/13/0.3 fish on the SB.

Flop
I can't really raise for value, but it is definitely a call.

Turn
When UTG checks I think we can rule out him having anything decent. On the other hand, slowplaying straights on such wet boards is also not a common habit, therefore I feel I can safely bet for value. And then the player on UTG makes a 2.5x x/r, leaving $36 behind.
The truth is, I don't rep anything good as well. Not sure if this guy is aware of this, but people usually prefer bluff catching, rather than bluffing, especially in massively bloated pots. I can't believe he plays any two pair this way.
He prob sqzes QQ+ pre, but JJ is possible. Not sure what about T9s.

I have really mixed feelings. What would you do?

pretty weird one, so little value hands he might have but the problem is that there are no bluffs in his range and i dont think he would go for a C/R with this size with a draw, pretty tough one to make i guess but it seems like a fold

weird move by villain, you expect him to bet all better hands as freecards would be horrible, but I havent seen that as a bluff with a draw or less in ages so Id just go with that and fold. I think he just wants to suck you AI and thats his best plan.

It's really really obvious that BB has the nuts which makes his line super fishy. it's not like he peeled the flop after you called on this board with nothing.

It's really really obvious that BB has the nuts which makes his line super fishy. it's not like he peeled the flop after you called on this board with nothing.

I folded to his x/r on the turned. I would also like to know if you like my line overall (flat pre, flat OTF, stab 2/3 IP OTT when checked to).

I folded to his x/r on the turned. I would also like to know if you like my line overall (flat pre, flat OTF, stab 2/3 IP OTT when checked to).

everything is fine except the turn bet is questionable. Depends on what range of hands do you expect BB to get to the turn with and what do you expect him to do with his range.

everything is fine except the turn bet is questionable.

Are you serious? lol I mean not betting turn is terribad IMO.

Are you serious? lol I mean not betting turn is terribad IMO.

lol?

Board: Kc Jc Qs 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.987% 37.50% { KhJh }
Hand 1: 62.013% 61.53% { JJ, AcQc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, QTs+, T9s, ATo, KQo, KTo }

this should be a reasonable range for BB to get to the turn with. UTG player will also not fold 100% of the times.

I think that its a pretty clear fold to his turn c/r.
I would also bet the turn in this spot to protect my hand.

lol?

Board: Kc Jc Qs 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.987% 37.50% { KhJh }
Hand 1: 62.013% 61.53% { JJ, AcQc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, QTs+, T9s, ATo, KQo, KTo }

this should be a reasonable range for BB to get to the turn with. UTG player will also not fold 100% of the times.

He can have a ton of other FDs, JTs, T8s, TT and other dumb stuff since he seems kinda passive. Also, and this is very important, those equity calculations suggest that he is as likely to c/c flop with JJ, AT and T9s (which I would think he c/r flop more often than not) than with KT, QT and FDs (which I think he tends to mostly c/c on flop). In fact, there are so many combos of AT alone that him c/r it 50% of the time on the flop (I actually think it's closer to 80% given flop texture) makes a huge difference to those equities.

Intuition alone should make it pretty clear that you have the best hand here more often than not and this is a very easy bet for value/protection.

Intuition alone should make it pretty clear that you have the best hand here more often than not and this is a very easy bet for value/protection.

now prove it with pokerstove.


oard: Kc Jc Qs 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.432% { KhJh }
Hand 1: 50.568% { JJ, AcQc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KQs, QJs, JTs, Tc8c, KQo }


Most optimistic range for villain continuing after our turn bet where he raises 100% of straights on the flop.

If you expect villain to call with like T8s without FD or like 54s then that's different hence why turn bet is "Questionable". I expect most reasonable players to not get here on this board multiway with weak draws even less so continuing on the turn facing another bet with them.

Seems reasonable. I definitely think he can have more FDs but it's probably close either way.

Wouldn't you agree that probably being ahead in equity against the two other ranges merits a protection bet, since they could say both have FDs/combo draws/tens while we have a made hand which is best unless someone has JJ (which seems unlikely) or KQ? Because you said UTG wont fold 100% like it's an argument against betting turn, while I think it's probably an argument for betting since their ranges might tend to overlap, and getting money three-way with say 35-40% equity is obviously +EV.

UTG is tight so he might not have many bare FDs, QTs or JTs (while in this case he might have AA/AK, and those also have outs) but, for the sake of the argument, lets say he's a 25/21. Don't you think the turn bet is close to mandatory?

Edit: sorry for my laziness about pokerstove but I dropped 9 BIs in 2 hours today at 100nl and I'm in no mood to click through all the FDs/combos I think they could have.

blah, this isn't the river so we can't just check behind and get our ev. there is value in inducing a fold, particularly three-way. i'll admit i've not done any math on this kind of spot, as it is rare, but it isn't hard to imagine conditions so that betting >> checking even if we are behind their calling ranges.

granted, it's pretty hard to see what is worse than the range you gave that BB can have (on this particular board) and which of those hands he can fold, so provided he isn't terrible this seems like a bad bet.

in general, you guys should be getting alarm bells when people overcall in spots where they can't have weak hands.

blah, this isn't the river so we can't just check behind and get our ev. there is value in inducing a fold, particularly three-way. i'll admit i've not done any math on this kind of spot, as it is rare, but it isn't hard to imagine conditions so that betting >> checking even if we are behind their calling ranges.

This is true in general. Just because we have less than 50% equity vs a calling range doesn't automatically make checking higher EV than betting. Pot equity is only a part of the EV equation which is why bet for value or bet as a bluff is an incomplete thought process unless we're IP on the river.

I don't think betting is clearly higher EV than checking in this hand thought. BB player's perceived range is super strong and UTG player will not fold 100% of the times and when either player continues we're probably crushed.

right, BB is the crux of this hand. his range is strong enough here that betting just is not better than checking.