Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Villain standard TAG, small sample, I decided to flat pre since he folds all worst hands to 3b. What should I do on the river here facing raise? Would your decision change here with a weaker Q.

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1731659
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Hero (BTN): $201.37
SB: $200.00
BB: $252.28
UTG: $250.82
CO: $200.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with A Q
1 fold, CO raises to $6, Hero calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($15.00) 2 Q 9 (2 players)
CO bets $8, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($31.00) 2 (2 players)
CO bets $20, Hero calls $20

River: ($71.00) 4 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $47.74, CO raises to $166 all in

Final Pot: $166.48

super gross spot especially without specific reads.

there are so few value hands that he reps here, but in my experience everytime I look up a decent/not spazzy player they just have it.

We shouldn't beat any hand vs his value range (something like 22, 99, A2s, QQ+), so you need to know If villain is capable bluff on this dry uncoordinated board. His line smells abit with those betsizings and river c/r but i would b/f this readless vs std tag.

And villain can´t really assume that you´ll fold your AQ there so he may bluff with a little lower freq.
I also b/f without reads

What hands are calling our vbet on the river? I only see QJ and KQ calling us. Is this enough to to make a vbet? If he is giving up on the river we don't get called by worse often. Anyone checking behind?

It is definitely a weird spot on the river. What hands that we got to the river this way are we vbetting river? What hands are bluffs? Looking at this spot, if he is calling KQ/QJ, that is 15 combos of each, we chop with the other 8 combos of AQ and lose to 3 combos of AA and 6 combos of KK he decide to not vb river.

so

30 combos he might call with worse
8 combos chop
9 combos we lose to

sorry but there are only 16 combos of worse Q's if we think he will bluffcatch with QJ and KQ.
8 * KQ and 8 * QJ.

Anyway, still more combos we beat than combos that beat us so agree we should bet.

I think he´ll often fold QJ there so you can discount some combos but its still worth it

just a thought from a little microstakes player here... but why isnt villain leading the river with all his value hands? What makes him so certain you will bet that its worth the risk checking when he are certain your ahead (which if he's raising for value he is certain). To me bet/bet/check-raise just seems a weird value line? If villain is feeling a bit safe he might check/call an overpair but check/raise?

Basically I think anything that has the strength to check/raise for value is leading the river, or losing value when you check behind.

Thoughts?

I agree with you Eternity. But it could be possible. He might do this once in a while for balance reasons.
Also a hands that makes sense is JT..

sorry but there are only 16 combos of worse Q's if we think he will bluffcatch with QJ and KQ.
8 * KQ and 8 * QJ.

Anyway, still more combos we beat than combos that beat us so agree we should bet.

My bad, I'm a counting fish

just a thought from a little microstakes player here... but why isnt villain leading the river with all his value hands? What makes him so certain you will bet that its worth the risk checking when he are certain your ahead (which if he's raising for value he is certain). To me bet/bet/check-raise just seems a weird value line? If villain is feeling a bit safe he might check/call an overpair but check/raise?

Basically I think anything that has the strength to check/raise for value is leading the river, or losing value when you check behind.

Thoughts?

Interesting take here. If you look at my hand range I can get to the river with, I will almost never have QQ-AA here, so if you break it down by combos

1 combo of 22
3 combos of 99
12 combos of AQ
12 combos of KQ
12 combos of QJ
??? combos of bluff

So my river better range is pretty mediocre here. Wonder if that makes this river a check back.

It doesen't make much sense c/r here with value hand, but it's somewhat obvius that we have a made hand here, double floats with pure air here is pretty rare. that kind of board is also rly bad to bluff GTO wise.

pretty interesting c/r - but you need more reads. pretty standard tag doesn't tell us anything about anyone. you should at least say how many hands you have together and what your image might be, so people could guess whether someone's range might be weighted one way or the other without ANY other reads. i'll assume small sample is small enough that this just isn't available. (OR it's a switch hand!)

i'd not bet KQ or QJ on the river against everyone, and i'm not sure what people expect you to do here. if i had absolutely no info to make a decision, i would go off the fact that most people are not bluffing with this kind of line. your betting range is strong, and they are often c/r rather than betting out of greed, even if you check back quite often here.

and they are often c/r rather than betting out of greed, even if you check back quite often here.

Is it really right though to call betting for value in this spot being greedy? Surely risking the check behind to be able to c/r is more greedy? e.g. betting a set on the river and getting called ...Hooray! ...or checking your set on the river hoping to be able to c/r...Greedy!

To go out on a limb here... im saying villain knows you have an average made hand and thinks he can push you off it. If im wrong... fair enough (and I probably am as these spots are usually where hero called and lost and wants to know if he made the right choice or not!)