Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

IPoker Network $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1727729
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CO: $390.65
BTN: $332.40
Hero (SB): $370.00
BB: $374.10
UTG: $233.15
MP: $479.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is SB with A A
1 fold, MP raises to $6, 2 folds, Hero raises to $24, BB calls $22, MP calls $18

Flop: ($72.00) 2 T 8 (3 players)
Hero bets $54.00, BB folds, MP raises to $120, Hero ?

http://imgur.com/mJfy6

BB was a 48/12_Fish

So the thing is that when I 3bet pre and cbet 3-way OOP with a fish on not the best "Cbet-Board", then my range looks very strong imo.
Hence I would guess that his Bluffingfreq is mostly very low and that he also cannot raise worse for value vs. my perceived range...

What you think?

Indeed, you look strong and i think you ll see sets more often than draws or overpairs b/c you holding the Ah reduce a lot of combos. this is a spot where i used to go broke a lot in the past. it still depends on your image and history with him but i wont level my self in to a call or push here where others obv would say auto broke interested in other opinions.

You have c-bet a board, that usually doesn't hit your 3-betting range very well. Moreover, the pot is 3-way and your sizing is also pretty big, therefore you look really strong here. Furthermore, this guy seems to be a honest player. You also do block A and I don't think he would raise here with a hand like KhQh (he would have flatted mostly). That being said you will see a set more than 80-85% of the time imo, so b/f should be the best play (not sure if I would force myself to do so in the game though...)

agree with b/f

ok, thx so far^^

villain wud likely play kk or qq this way no? maybe JJ also, folds 22 pre and possibly 88s, is true is pretty much never bluffing here but i don't think ur crushed by his value range, wud stack off here all day in a vacuum

I doubt he folds his pockets w/ a bad player in the hand and getting pretty good odds deep vs a reg?

I doubt he folds his pockets w/ a bad player in the hand and getting pretty good odds deep vs a reg?

That's true. He can easily have all 9 combos of sets and 2 combos of two pair with T8s.

That deep I will re-raise preflop OOP less often so we can 3 bet bigger because people will call more, 4bet for value with worse less often anyway.

Your flop play seems exploitable. If you bet/fold AA here (top of your range), you are bet/folding almost always even with T8 if you 3bet that hand. How do you play AK AQ ?
For example we can construct our range like:

-bet/fold our big Broadways with one heart or 2 diamonds (AK,KQ) , all our jacks, QQ without Q and our occasional one pair/straight draw hands which we 3bet bluff preflop with

-check/fold our other big broadways and random 3bet bluff stuff : This will happen fairly often which leads us to balance with check/calls & raises especially with a TAG on the button

-cc/cr or cc/cc/cc with AA and KK
With QQ you are blocking bluff combos (which have better equity against QQ than KK and AA) like suited brodways so check folding more often OTT seems ok. You can had KQ in that range because you will pick up often additional outs OTT and getting in OTF can be dangerous that deep because of draw domination, esp. vs tighter regs.

-bet/shove with AQ type hands, bluffs that flopped combo-draws like J9 and your made 'top of range' hands AA/KK (you crush AQ, KQ)

"Your flop play seems exploitable" thats not really important here, more important here is that we are c-betting pretty bad board to c-bet into a 2 players one of which is a fish and 2nd thing is that villain seems pretty passive (not really a guy who will try to exploit us here)

As played bet/folding seems ok, but with AA without I will lean towards shoving.

You lean towards shoving because you expect him to show up with additional 11 NFD combos (assuming he raises all of them 100% of the time while being IP), which have 38.4% equity vs your hand?

Board: 2h Th 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.596% 61.60% 00.00% 6098 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 38.404% 38.40% 00.00% 3802 0.00 { AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h }

Add 9 combos of sets and your equity is now only 36.534%. This means you simply can't shove for value. All you do by shoving is value cutting yourself.


I am wondering if we could call his raise, but if we don't expect him to bluff here, then b/f seems to be the best choice.

Against his calling range we are almost flipping (maybe a bit optimistic with QQ and some fd).
Sometimes he is bluffing and folding to our shove...



Board: 2h Th 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.113% 48.11% 00.00% 16671 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 51.887% 51.89% 00.00% 17979 0.00 { QQ, TT, 88, 22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, Jh9h, Tc8c, Td8d, Ts8s, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 7h6h }

If we are flipping against his calling range, we are crushed vs his top value raising range:

Board: 2h Th 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.035% 30.04% 00.00% 5947 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 69.965% 69.96% 00.00% 13853 0.00 { TT, 88, 22, AhKh, AhQh, Ah8h, QhJh, Jh9h, T8s, 9h7h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h }


- Fold Equity: 25%
- Equity: 30.544%
- Pot Size: $123 ($72 + your c-bet $54 - $3 rake) -> your $54 is already considered as 'dead money'
- Villain's Bet: $120
- Our Raise: $292 ($370 - $24 - $54)

EV ~~ $0.00

There are 19 combos mentioned above. He has to bluff here with about 6-7 combos to make the shove break even.

why should he raise a NutFD while drawing to the nuts and having a lot of implieds to justify easily a slowplay by calling the NutFD, vs. a cbet 3-way with a fish involved on such a board where he cannot expect much FEQ readless -> only b/c I can fold here AA, that does not mean that ppl at this take do it often, as the thread shows clearly.

I also do not think that he should valueraise here worse given my perceived valuerange.

the thing of being potentially exploitable is true though b/c i am rly pretty top of my range - anyways, I think that is at least less of a deal when the pot is multiway and a fish is involved.