Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Hi,
I am feeling like this should be a fold on the flop. Villain is a TAG reg raise cbet 15%
I wanted to call a little more because he shoved the flop rather quickly.
These spots have been troubling me a lot lately, any suggestion for best post flop line to take here?
Sorry this is a FR hand posting here because this forum is awesome!

How do you think the fact that CO is a whale changes MPs calling range?
If you think it's a fold, what is the worst hand you are calling with?

Poker Stars $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - View hand 1724126
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $107.03 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 13, 3B: 6, AF: 3.5
Hero (SB): $141.53 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2.8
BB: $75.70 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 4.4
UTG: $117.63 - VPIP: 45, PFR: 21, 3B: 11, AF: 0.9
UTG+1: $100.94 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 8, 3B: 4, AF: 2.5
MP: $137.68 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 2.3
CO: $69.42 - VPIP: 42, PFR: 3, 3B: 5, AF: 2.8, Hands: 188

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with A A
2 folds, MP raises to $3, CO calls $3, BTN calls $3, Hero raises to $14.50, 1 fold, MP calls $11.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $11.50

Flop: ($47.50) Q 9 J (3 players)
Hero bets $27.00, MP raises to $123.18, BTN folds, Hero calls $96.18

Turn: ($293.86) 6 (2 players)

River: ($293.86) J (2 players)

Thanks for listening

Yeah I think I would be bet/folding here. You look really strong by squeezing pre and then cbetting this board into 2 players. I doubt he is ever raising as a bluff in this spot. The fact that you have the Ad takes away most possible flush draws, also. And you start the hand somewhat deep. So yeah I'd fold.

I don't know how to think in terms of FR stats and don't know what's 'standard' for FR but I'll offer my 2c. First, ask yourself, if villain is a TAG, what is his likely calling range in this spot when he is not closing the action. Are you perceived as a squeeze happy player, and is this a good spot for squeezing. Despite not knowing what's normal for FR, I'm guessing his calling range here is pocket pairs for setmining and AK.

Now on this flop. Ask yourself, is villain ever bluffing? I think the worst hand villain can have in this spot is TT, cause he can credibly rep a set and still have 8-10 outs when called if you have AA/KK, 8 outs vs QQ, and will fold out your the ~30% equity you have when you have AK. Also, since you have the Ad, it it makes it much less likely he has a diamond draw (I don't think JTdd is in his calling range). So his flop range here is likely 99-QQ which has you crushed. It is an easy b/f here vs a TAG

I think you should start with giving MP a callingrange here and break it down in stoxev. What is your image at the table? I dont think that we already rep strengths pre because he "should"suggest that you squeeze with a wider range for value with the "whale" in the hand.
any read if he plays his draws aggr. or in general any read on MP? he looks pretty nitty and i think you shouldn´t call here close to 100bb more b/c your chance of flipping against a 16/12 is pretty small in that spot imo.

Thanks for the great responses! I agree it looks like a pretty standard bet/fold. I think I just got a little carried away with the timing tell which never really works out. I think his range for flatting the 3bet is probably something like TT+, AQs, AK

So we need approx 33% equity to call the shove, putting a range of 99-QQ into poker stove shows we have 34.24% equity.

Board: Qd 9d Jh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.236% 33.63% 00.61% 4994 90.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 65.764% 65.16% 00.61% 9676 90.00 { QQ-99 }

This is not quite what I expected, it seems pretty close!

Do you think villain will shove KK/AQ here for protection?
Can we account for an occasional random flush draw here?
If so our hand becomes a lot more +EV to call.

Thanks for the great responses! I agree it looks like a pretty standard bet/fold. I think I just got a little carried away with the timing tell which never really works out. I think his range for flatting the 3bet is probably something like TT+, AQs, AK

So we need approx 33% equity to call the shove, putting a range of 99-QQ into poker stove shows we have 34.24% equity.

Board: Qd 9d Jh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.236% 33.63% 00.61% 4994 90.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 65.764% 65.16% 00.61% 9676 90.00 { QQ-99 }

This is not quite what I expected, it seems pretty close!

Do you think villain will shove KK/AQ here for protection?
Can we account for an occasional random flush draw here?
If so our hand becomes a lot more +EV to call.

Whao, that's much closer then I imagine. I guess he has 6 combos of TT vs 9 combos of sets.

Villain will only shove KK/AQ for protection only if he is terribad or monkey tilting.

This is a really interesting hand.

I think that after betting it's probably a big mistake to fold unless you know for sure that the villain is super tight and wouldn't shove a draw.

Having the weak CO player behind, in theory, should skew his range to be slightly stronger, however having an additional player left to act on the button might counter balance that. For instance, if you held AA, KK, or QQ would you really want to flat and risk having the pot go 4-way with the worst possible relative position? Additionally, he may not even be aware of the CO player or what that dynamic does to your 3-betting range. So I think AA can be removed, and KK / QQ need to be discounted heavily.

A possible range might look like:
KcKd,KcKh,QhQs,JJ-99,KJs-KTs,QJs,JTs,AQo

Hero is 46.173% against this range.

The villain could very easily (and correctly) play his entire continuing range, made hands and draws in the exact same way on this flop with the remaining stack sizes. The reason being that it would be a mistake to flat a draw, knowing that he will be priced out on the turn if he misses. There is only one more bet left. Made hands want protection, and draws want fold equity and to see both a turn and a river.

This is a really interesting hand.

I think that after betting it's probably a big mistake to fold unless you know for sure that the villain is super tight and wouldn't shove a draw.

Having the weak CO player behind, in theory, should skew his range to be slightly stronger, however having an additional player left to act on the button might counter balance that. For instance, if you held AA, KK, or QQ would you really want to flat and risk having the pot go 4-way with the worst possible relative position? Additionally, he may not even be aware of the CO player or what that dynamic does to your 3-betting range. So I think AA can be removed, and KK / QQ need to be discounted heavily.

A possible range might look like:
KcKd,KcKh,QhQs,JJ-99,KJs-KTs,QJs,JTs,AQo

Hero is 46.173% against this range.

The villain could very easily (and correctly) play his entire continuing range, made hands and draws in the exact same way on this flop with the remaining stack sizes. The reason being that it would be a mistake to flat a draw, knowing that he will be priced out on the turn if he misses. There is only one more bet left. Made hands want protection, and draws want fold equity and to see both a turn and a river.

Sure MP raises flop often. But seeing his stats he seems like a reg. Are you ever cbetting this board light? Is he just shoving a FD or kq? even JTd might just call because your hand looks really strong here.
It is a bet fold I believe.
I would be something more like 32 on the flop though. he will call with a ton of things. board is so wet and you hate so many turns, since you are never bluffing this board might as well bet larger.
even 37-42 might be better.

I don't know what you're implying by stating that he seems like reg. The larger you bet, the worse it is to fold.

If I played this hand I would also be doubting if bet/calling is good. But now I stoved it, im sure that bet/calling is okay.

The conclusion that I've come to in this hand is that it depends on how often he is shoving TT or hands like AQ. If he is shoving a few combos of each, then we have enough equity to call. If he is only shoving sets and like 2 combos of TT, then we should be folding. Imo, this comes down to reads and how we would expect him to play TT, AQ, etc. I personally wouldn't expect a player with these stats to shove TT or AQ that often in this spot, but I very rarely play FR. I just think we don't look like we are bet/folding very often when we cbet this board. Either way, interesting hand, and it appears a lot closer than I initially thought.

If I played this hand I would also be doubting if bet/calling is good. But now I stoved it, im sure that bet/calling is okay.

Yeah it's only really bad if he like only has sets.

he can also have KJdd, maybe TJdd, 78dd + the changes the fish will call something like Qx gives you a better price. But offcourse I will not be very happy.