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Party Poker $100 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1691254
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SB: $122.00
BB: $27.00
Hero (UTG): $105.50
CO: $100.00
BTN: $176.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with A Q
Hero raises to $4, CO raises to $12, 3 folds, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($25.50) 9 J T (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $18.20, Hero raises to $93.50 all in

Villian seemed like a nit playing TAGish. 17/11 over 350 hands 3b: 2.5. Maybe is best to fold pre to avoid though spots OOP? idk. But I think Villian will play pretty honest even IP, so i think calling and playing OOP post is +EV. Cont. bet 3b pots: 33%(3)

Preflop
I think Villians range is like: AcAh,AcAs,AhAs,KK,QcQh,QcQs,QhQs,JJ-TT,AcKc,AhKh,AsKs,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs,AhKc,AhKd,AhKs,AsKc,AsKd,AsKh (2.7%, 36 hands)

Flop
I expect Villian to cbet his entire preflop range here, which i have about 33% equity against: Board: 9c Js Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.811% 66.07% 01.74% 19622 518.00 { AcAh, AcAs, AhAs, KK, QcQh, QcQs, QhQs, JJ-TT, AcKc, AhKh, AsKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh }
Hand 1: 32.189% 30.44% 01.74% 9042 518.00 { AdQd }

I think shoving here is +EV, because I need 33% pot equity given I have none FE.

Thoughs apreciated?

Thanks

Sune

You say he will play straight forward IP, so why do you want to bluff when he bets a board that your range absolutely crushes. Also, AQ is at the absolute bottom of your range on this board.

You say he will play straight forward IP, so why do you want to bluff when he bets a board that your range absolutely crushes. Also, AQ is at the absolute bottom of your range on this board.

I'am Semi bluffing, which I think is better than calling b/c we lose to AK and there is less FE OTT imo.

Are you suggesting ch/c flop and bluff turn?

I think you said you have none fold equity, how can you be semi bluffing with no fold equity? Basicly you put your money in where you have 33% or something like that without any pot odds. Also calling is quite bad since you really don't have implied odds here since the boards will be super ugly when you hit your straight. Also note the bet sizing is horrible by the villain since it really can't be a bluff, so you should note that and shove in spots where he doesn't bet this big and you have some equity. Also I would just muck AQ pre vs him.

I think you said you have none fold equity, how can you be semi bluffing with no fold equity? Basicly you put your money in where you have 33% or something like that without any pot odds. Also calling is quite bad since you really don't have implied odds here since the boards will be super ugly when you hit your straight. Also note the bet sizing is horrible by the villain since it really can't be a bluff, so you should note that and shove in spots where he doesn't bet this big and you have some equity. Also I would just muck AQ pre vs him.

By no FE I meant, that I am balanced by shoving, given my preflop range I gave villian is correct, if he fold some AKo's it's +EV, but I should have folded pre i think.

By no FE I meant, that I am balanced by shoving, given my preflop range I gave villian is correct, if he fold some AKo's it's +EV, but I should have folded pre i think.

villain would not b c betting ak on this board, as for pre flop doubt a 17/11 is 3 betting a utg opener with TT maybe not even JJ, is prob a fold pre but then a check call on the flop unless u think he might ditch an overpair on this board, maybe they shud but they never do, and his sizing in my experience is never ever a bluff, and ur pretty crushed by his range prefer even folding flop to jamming, wud say his range for c betting flop is JJ-AA which is far from 33% equity

I guess its bad because your overs are dirty vs. his non bluff c bet 4 value range. TT+. Now I have a question. If villain has for a fact a set or an over pair here and this flop was with 2 diamonds would this be an insta shove?

villain would not b c betting ak on this board, as for pre flop doubt a 17/11 is 3 betting a utg opener with TT maybe not even JJ, is prob a fold pre but then a check call on the flop unless u think he might ditch an overpair on this board, maybe they shud but they never do, and his sizing in my experience is never ever a bluff, and ur pretty crushed by his range prefer even folding flop to jamming, wud say his range for c betting flop is JJ-AA which is far from 33% equity

Agree..

I guess its bad because your overs are dirty vs. his non bluff c bet 4 value range. TT+. Now I have a question. If villain has for a fact a set or an over pair here and this flop was with 2 diamonds would this be an insta shove?

I would yea imo, to secure I get called also when I have sets overpairs.

Board: Jd Td 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.094% 49.93% 01.16% 8898 207.00 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 48.906% 47.74% 01.16% 8508 207.00 { TT+ }

1) Comment on the assigned range: I don't think there are TT's and JJ's in nitfish's 3bet vs Open from UTG range. I'd say {QQ-AA, AKs}.
2) Fold Equity vs this range would be: 4 combos of AKs / 16 combos of a whole range = 25% but I don't think he cbets AKs (and this big).
So it is less than that and even with 25% Fold Equity your shove is at least -4bb/100 in EV (very likely -20bb/100 for FE = 0).
3) As played on the flop: You have 8 or 9 outs. The nitfish might check behind on a lot of turn cards. You have 34% equity, your direct pot odds dictate 30%. With some implied odds (not a whole stack on 4str board though) + opportunity to bluff on J, I think it should be a check-call now and check-fold on the turn.
4) Fold pre-flop.

Is there enough cards to come ott to warrant a call otf? I count 18 cards that either improve equity or make a strait.(nine diamonds), (four 8s), (four Kings) (two Aces). The AA outs may be dirty so I only counted half of them. The Kings and the 8s being clean outs. He would have some implied odds vs. the AA, KK, QQ parts of villains range if the King or the diamond come. How do you calculate equity based on cards to come? Sorry if these questions don't make any sense. Thanks.

These are very good questions. First we have to start with counting cards that make villain fold. 8 straight cards, 1 or 2 aces, 3 jacks, say 1-2 tens, 1-3 queens (would make AA ckb). So let's say 15 in overall. So 15/45 = about 33% of the time villain will be FORCED to check behind (we can donk obviously). From other 67% he might check behind VOLUNATIRALY and be pot controlling AA or KK. This board is especially conducive to 'pot control frequency'. Let's say this happens half of the time, including (rare) instances he gives up with AK. 66% x 50% = 33%.
So we can assume that 33% + 33% = 66% of the time we realize our whole Equity. In other words, we get only 66% out of our EQ (34%) so our "effective equity" is 22% (34% x 66%). We need 30% and we lack 8%, so we have to find X for the lacking 8% which are breakeven implied odds. If villain pays off 17$ bet into 61$ pot the times we hit, then our implied odds compensate for the lacking 8%. If he is a station, then EV of the flop check-call is bigger obviously.
And please note that implied odds for flush cards are also bigger + [as always when calling ] we get value in the shape of information/experience.

These are very good questions. First we have to start with counting cards that make villain fold. 8 straight cards, 1 or 2 aces, 3 jacks, say 1-2 tens, 1-3 queens (would make AA ckb). So let's say 15 in overall. So 15/45 = about 33% of the time villain will be FORCED to check behind (we can donk obviously). From other 67% he might check behind VOLUNATIRALY and be pot controlling AA or KK. This board is especially conducive to 'pot control frequency'. Let's say this happens half of the time, including (rare) instances he gives up with AK. 66% x 50% = 33%.
So we can assume that 33% + 33% = 66% of the time we realize our whole Equity. In other words, we get only 66% out of our EQ (34%) so our "effective equity" is 22% (34% x 66%). We need 30% and we lack 8%, so we have to find X for the lacking 8% which are breakeven implied odds. If villain pays off 17$ bet into 61$ pot the times we hit, then our implied odds compensate for the lacking 8%. If he is a station, then EV of the flop check-call is bigger obviously.
And please note that implied odds for flush cards are also bigger + [as always when calling ] we get value in the shape of information/experience.

WOW! The math aspect is so way over my head! And to be able to do what you just did in game would be flat out scary to me. I am pretty sure you said yes there would be enough turn cards to come making a decision to call otf +EV. You also counted the remaining Jacks as heros bluff outs, or reasons for villain to pot control (I didn't think of that). I think these types of hands are important because I noticed playing live, huge pots are won in these types of spots. Plus you talk about pot control frequency which is something I haven't thought about before. Pot control frequency should be considered on certain boards (note to self). I see some good players win in these spots where villain was ahead otf but didn't realize heros range or outs ott, otr. These type of hands make ok players weak tight if they cant figure out these type of spots. Thanks for the breakdown.