Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

hello i m not sure about river play
$200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players -

Hero (SB): $410.30 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 17, 3B: 6, AF: 3.1, Hands: 293069
BB: $377.00 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 1.8, Hands: 439
UTG: $220.25 - VPIP: 29, PFR: 20, 3B: 4, AF: 3.5, Hands: 70
MP: $351.05 - VPIP: 46, PFR: 19, 3B: 10, AF: 2.0, Hands: 70
CO: $185.35 - VPIP: 35, PFR: 16, 3B: 7, AF: 1.3, Hands: 368
BTN: $197.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 8, AF: 3.8, Hands: 163

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is SB with A K
1 fold, MP calls $2, CO calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $12, 1 fold, MP calls $10, CO calls $10

i do not not what he can has, i never played him my only note is that he seems to open call, of course i raise for value and isolation

Flop: ($38.00) 7 K 8 (3 players)
Hero bets $30.00, MP calls $30, CO folds
since i do not know his calling range preflop it's hard to to what he can has, i believe it's the type of player who will call all Kx, all paires from 8x to TT, all str8 draws and flush draws so i beg quite big for value

Turn: ($98.00) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $74.00, MP calls $74
whe he calls i put him on weak hands and draws, weak hands are TP and pairs down to 8, i don"t think he will often call a 7 on suc a drawy board.
i expect him to raise his nut range on this drawy board (sets and 2 pairs)
so i bet big for value again

River: ($246.00) J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $235.05, Hero folds
ok 9T has a staight and KJ has a double pair
i think i do not have value to put a 3rd barrel so i prefer check/call his bluffs with missed draw
but when he puts a whole stack 235 into 246 i begin to believe that withtout information he he's valuebetting and i have to fold (i have to be good 48%)
any thoughts?
have a nice day

Don't play anywhere near these stakes, so won't comment on the hand itself but you've done the maths wrong: you'll have to be good here a little under 1/3 of the time to break even.

thanks (email notification did not work)
you re right it's around 33%, can you give me the formula? ( i did 235/(235+246) but it 's surely the fold % oppopent needs to make his bluff good)
have a nice day

thanks (email notification did not work)
you re right it's around 33%, can you give me the formula? ( i did 235/(235+246) but it 's surely the fold % oppopent needs to make his bluff good)
have a nice day

Hi,

Sorry to be so long in replying.

Here's the working I used:

Pot = $481
To call = $235
Set x = %win

Then just solve 481x -235(1-x) = 0 for the break even point

so 716x = 235

x = 235/716 = 32.8%


Surprised this thread hasn't had any more replies - seems quite an interesting spot.

thanks for the maths (i was out for a week),
last bump : nothing has an idea of how to play this hand?
thanks and have a nice day

How about reconsidering valuebetting the river instead?

You said that you wanted to bluffcatch, but didn't like it when he shoved. I think the most likely betsize for villain here, regardless of holding, is shoving.

hi thanks
what can you value river this deep?
why do you say his only option is to shove? it s a pot size 115bb bet

hi thanks
what can you value river this deep?
why do you say his only option is to shove? it s a pot size 115bb bet

I think that more that 50% of his callingrange on this river is a weaker Kx hand. Considering villain limpcalled pre.

No, not only option. His most likely betsize if he bets.

VS. a guy starting out at 46/19 you may find more non-combo flush draws in his range that calls on the turn, but in general VS. a lot of players a big turn bet and a paired board will get folds from a good % of their flush draws, so I think when you get to the river here it's mostly a c/f.

You want to think in depth about how HE progresses through the hand, what HE is likely to fold/call with on the turn and have that at the forefront of your river decision thought process.

Other info here is that he called w/a guy behind on the flop so that adds a bit of strength to his range (though it doesn't have to be a big sign here, it will be in some situations) and he's calling very liberally preflop which puts more 7x hands in his range. It also puts more Kx hands in his range so on a slightly better board I would be vb'ing thinly for sure.

I think villains range for calling is ax,axs kx, kxs, pp’, and prob sc

Against a weak player like villain, I’d be going for 3 streets of value. Villain could be calling with worse kx hand, flush draw, or straight draw. If villain comes over the top of my river vb then I think it’s safe to say tptk is dead and villain has fh, straight, or trips.

Really if you are checking the river to induce bluffs, you should probably stick with your plan of check/call rather than check/ think about it as you are quite possibly getting exactly what you want.

That said, I do think you are probably beat in this hand and if I checked, I’d probably fold to this river bet size. Unless he gets out of line often like this, it looks like for value.

VS. a guy starting out at 46/19 you may find more non-combo flush draws in his range that calls on the turn, but in general VS. a lot of players a big turn bet and a paired board will get folds from a good % of their flush draws, so I think when you get to the river here it's mostly a c/f.

You want to think in depth about how HE progresses through the hand, what HE is likely to fold/call with on the turn and have that at the forefront of your river decision thought process.

Other info here is that he called w/a guy behind on the flop so that adds a bit of strength to his range (though it doesn't have to be a big sign here, it will be in some situations) and he's calling very liberally preflop which puts more 7x hands in his range. It also puts more Kx hands in his range so on a slightly better board I would be vb'ing thinly for sure.

Is AA the weakest hand you valuebet here?

thanks for the answers, opinions are differents so that was a difficult spot it seems

Is AA the weakest hand you valuebet here?

to me AA = AK since there are few AK when we holds AA on Kxx board so we are valuebetting top pair 2nd kiker and worse

Played the flop and turn just fine, I like the sizing and reasoning behind it.

OTR I probably b/f something like 2/3 pot. Don't say you're "checking to induce" if you even have a decision when he bets the river. It should be a snap call. If you think you will be in a tough spot when he bets river just fire 3 barrels.

2/3 pot is a bet/call i cant bet 2/3 and fold for such a small bet river with a 200bb pot
so X/C is better since we keep his bluffs, doesn"t it (but im still not sure X/C is better than X/F)

AK/AA aren't the same b/c AA beats KJ. if you had AA it would put more K's in his range and you'd beat KJ as well so I'd be way more likely to value bet there.