Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

I am flopping a set but I get more and more disgusted with it as the hand progress. Is this just standard call and why - feel free to comment on flop and turn as well.

Villain is running af 14,41 / 10,34 over 229 hands. He is opening 8 percent from the UTG+1. He has cbettet 2 out of 2.

I am not fooling around with his range and he probably sees me 24 / 19 fold to cbet around 47 percent.

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $200.00
SB: $165.76
BB: $132.49
UTG: $233.52
MP: $220.57
Hero (CO): $238.48

SB posts SB $1.00, BB posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero has 5 5

fold, MP raises to $6.00, Hero calls $6.00, BTN calls $6.00, fold, fold

Flop: ($21.00, 3 players) 5 6 7
MP bets $15.00, Hero calls $15.00, fold

Turn: ($51.00, 2 players) K
MP bets $32.00, Hero calls $32.00

River: ($115.00, 2 players) Q
MP bets $70.00, Hero?????

Not sure why you aren't raising the flop and or turn? Do you put SC in tight villans range utg+1? Villan most likely had a 77+, or some decent broadways. You crush this range with your set, by check calling villan probably puts you on a weak pair like TT-JJ

I would be comfortable stacking off on this river. Its perfect for an all in shove that the villian will call most of the time. Worst case villian made a set on turn or river, but it seems unlikely. A good portion of villian's range could bet this line. A small number of hands beats us. It looks like acceptable risk.

Ok, so 89s beats you there. And maybe he's firing the 3rd barrel w KK or QQ, but that's a very small part of his range. Also in his range is 77-JJ, AK, AQ, KQ all of which you crush. You have over 80% equity against a range which includes all that.

Call the river (but should have raised flop or turn in my opinion)

Not sure why you aren't raising the flop and or turn? Do you put SC in tight villans range utg+1? Villan most likely had a 77+, or some decent broadways. You crush this range with your set, by check calling villan probably puts you on a weak pair like TT-JJ

You actually answered your own question.

Ok, so 89s beats you there. And maybe he's firing the 3rd barrel w KK or QQ, but that's a very small part of his range. Also in his range is 77-JJ, AK, AQ, KQ all of which you crush. You have over 80% equity against a range which includes all that.

Call the river (but should have raised flop or turn in my opinion)

Could you please explain the last sentence of raising the flop/turn?
If Villain has the above range, why do we want to raise against it? Seems to me that we possibly scare him by raising, and missing oppertunity's to get value from his range

Could you please explain the last sentence of raising the flop/turn?
If Villain has the above range, why do we want to raise against it? Seems to me that we possibly scare him by raising, and missing oppertunity's to get value from his range

Calling the flop is the right play. Simply becaue it is a little hard for us to rep a bluff unless we have some kind of crazy image we can leverage. By calling we can rep a wide range of hands. 88-JJ er certainly in our perceived range.

How about raising the turn? If he has AK or KQ/KJ he might put us on a FD and call a reraise. With 88-QQ he might also call, depending on what kind of player he is.

Ok, so 89s beats you there. And maybe he's firing the 3rd barrel w KK or QQ, but that's a very small part of his range. Also in his range is 77-JJ, AK, AQ, KQ all of which you crush. You have over 80% equity against a range which includes all that.

Call the river (but should have raised flop or turn in my opinion)

I am not sure if QKo is in his preflop-range. Most likely just the suited ones.

I don't think that 88,99,TT,JJ fires a third barrel. Firing a 3rd barrel would make him value bet quite thinly which doesn't match his super tight style. He is probably used to opponents giving him tons of respect so he's not the typical player to value bet thin. Why value thin bet if you are only looked up by strong hands?

Another thing is that the flop is just smashing into my range. All pairs from 44-99 just got a piece of the flop and the texture is pure jackpot for suited connectors. At least some of his high cards combos are just X-folding leaving even fewer AK,KQ in his holdings. AQo is for the most part giving up on flop or at least turn.

Lets say he looses half of his high cards on the flop. Leaving just 1 combo of QKs, 6 combos of AK and two combos of AQ (most are giving up before river). Then we add six combos of AA as well. Thats 15 combos - some of which I think is going to check or bet smaller on the river.

Lets say he has four combos of 89s and 12 combos of the sets that beats us. That makes us the winner of the hand around 40-50 percent of the time and we just need to be good less then 1/3. That makes a call pretty clear I guess - do you all agree?

As the hand was played I remember thinking: I don't like this. I don't know how to account for those feelings here but it should be part of the analysis whether it's his betsizing, timing tells or board texture that worried me.

Lastly I think shoving is just way too spewy. I think he is folding almost any hand that we beat - do you agree on this?

Raising river would def. be to thin against a tight player, since he will prob. lay down AK or AA, but calling is de. still good.

How about raising the turn? If he has AK or KQ/KJ he might put us on a FD and call a reraise. With 88-QQ he might also call, depending on what kind of player he is.

We never have a flush draw on the turn. We should stick to the plan and rep as weak a range as possible.

Ok, so 89s beats you there. And maybe he's firing the 3rd barrel w KK or QQ, but that's a very small part of his range. Also in his range is 77-JJ, AK, AQ, KQ all of which you crush. You have over 80% equity against a range which includes all that.

Call the river (but should have raised flop or turn in my opinion)

This range is way too optimistic.

Raise flop and it's not even close. The big preflop nits tend to be huge postflop stations.

I'd also raise flop here.

This range is way too optimistic.

Raise flop and it's not even close. The big preflop nits tend to be huge postflop stations.

Would you always cbet this flop with big pairs if you were villain? Would you never take a check / call line?

Would you always cbet this flop with big pairs if you were villain? Would you never take a check / call line?

Just be really careful to not project your own thought process onto your opponent.

This question can't be answered without the range you open.