Well, first of all, if you have exaclty 20% fold equity, that only means that shoving is better than folding, but since calling is also massively better then folding, you actually need a lot more FE to make shoving the best play.
That said, I think it is defenitly a viable option, even against a fish. A player who will take a donk/call /donk again on next street - line, will defenitly do this with a wide range. I would say Kx, 8x, FD's, T9, 97. On the Q turn, I think even most crazy/fishy/lose players will fold their 8x and their draws, which is good for you. On the other hand, if he has a draw and bets the river, you can't really get him off of it. It is very close in my mind.
Yup. Shoving is definitely not bad. Not sure how you did your calculation, but a reasonable amount of the time when you are called, J high will actually be the best hand. Also a Q is a scary card so he'll likely fold anything worse than a Q on the turn, mainly an 8. Also, he's betting $8 which might be some subconscious bet sizing tell that he has an 8 in his hand.
All that said, I still think calling is best.
You mentioned your using Poker-tracker now. I am using it only because I have a Mac don't believe HeM is available for MAC? Are you considering going back to HeM? I am having some concerns with Poker-tracker and never used HeM before.
- The player (table) stats seem to block the player balance, I havent figured out how to modify the window display if its even an option.
- Secondly Modifying the player stats doesn't seem to be user friendly. Any luck with this either?
This has become a two in one tread. Sorry about that. Feel very free to comment on the original topic.
@pally: I am not switching back right now since I am very much enjoying playing on my Mac.
I used to play poker through a program called Parallels. It costs around 60 bucks. Basically it creates a small PC within your MAC which allows you to run HEM and all the other windows stuff. Maybe one day I play like that again.
The player (table) stats as you mentioned is probably your Hud, right. You can just drag the numbers using the right button of your mouse. You can modify the numbers it in the configure hud options. It's also possible to download HUD from pokertracker.com.
There is a lot of guides on how to set it all up in pokertracker. There is even videos from other sites about it. You can even use other users setup. Find them here and take your time to read how to do it.
There is no away around using some hours on this....
The shove is bad for a number of reasons the first being that the ev of calling getting such good odds with our combo draw is completely demolished when we raise shove and now we are relying on a fish villain to fold top pair which they rarely do and 2, our shove looks like a draw.
Any strong hands would have raised the flop.