Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Hi Guys.

***** Hand History for Game 4293363327 ***** (Prima)
$100 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, February 08, 09:53:49 ET 2012
Table Deal 273 (Deep) 5 Min (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: l6vikonserv ( $196.2 USD )
Seat 2: LuboMandev ( $166.2 USD )
Seat 3: 0o0MloYveP ( $101.5 USD )
Seat 4: Morphing1 ( $103 USD )
Seat 5: conrad_poos ( $120.7 USD )
Seat 6: Kuide ( $164.3 USD )
conrad_poos posts small blind [$0.5 USD].
l6vikonserv posts big blind [$1 USD].
Dealt to Morphing1 [ 2h Ah ]
LuboMandev folds
0o0MloYveP folds
Morphing1 raises [$3 USD]
conrad_poos folds
l6vikonserv raises [$10 USD]
Morphing1 calls [$8 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3h, Kh, Kc ]
l6vikonserv bets [$11 USD]
Morphing1 calls [$11 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3s ]
l6vikonserv bets [$22 USD]
Morphing1 raises [$81 USD]

I think it's clearly +EV to shove turn over Villian 2nd barrel, because Villain, imo, range is very wide, to make enough hands fold.Here is my though process(I use p as a potunit, instead of actual numbers, thanks WOT):

Preflop
AcAd,AcAs,AdAs,KK-JJ,AcKc,AdKd,AsKs,AcQc,AdQd,AsQs,AcJc,AdJd,AsJs,AcTc,AdTd,AsTs,KJs+,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs,AdKc,AdKh,AdKs,AsKc,AsKd,AsKh,AcQd,AcQh,AcQs,AdQc,AdQh,AdQs,AsQc,AsQd,AsQh,AcJd,AcJh,AcJs,AdJc,AdJh,AdJs,AsJc,AsJd,AsJh

Cbet range flop:
AcAd,AcAs,AdAs,KdKs,QQ-JJ,AdKd,AsKs,AcQc,AdQd,AsQs,AcJc,AdJd,AsJs,AcTc,AdTd,AsTs,KdQd,KsQs,KdJd,KsJs,AcKd,AcKs,AdKs,AsKd,AcQd,AcQh,AcQs,AdQc,AdQh,AdQs,AsQc,AsQd,AsQh,AcJd,AcJh,AcJs,AdJc,AdJh,AdJs,AsJc,AsJd,AsJh

Cbet range turn(52 hands):
AcAd,AcAs,AdAs,KdKs,QQ-JJ,AdKd,AsKs,AcQc,AdQd,AsQs,AcJc,AdJd,AsJs,AcTc,AdTd,AsTs,KdQd,KsQs,KdJd,KsJs,AcKd,AcKs,AdKs,AsKd,AcQd,AcQh,AcQs,AdQc,AdQh,AdQs,AsQc,AsQd,AsQh,AcJd,AcJh,AcJs,AdJc,AdJh,AdJs,AsJc,AsJd,AsJh

Etimating folding equty of a shove:

Prize we lay ourselves: About 2:1  we need to win ~ 33% of the time if called

Hands that will call a shove(13 hands): AcAs,AdAs,KdKs,AdKd,AsKs,KdQd,KsQs,KdJd,KsJs,AcKd,AcKs,AdKs,AsKd (two of three reaming AA)

Hands that will fold to shove: 39 hands

I risk 2p( 1p~4) to win 3p

Shove and fold: 1p

Shove and lose: 2p

Shove and win: 3p

Mental calculate: -2p-2p+3p: -1  Villain only needs to fold 1 out of 4 times

Would like to hear others thoughs?

Have a nice day

Sune

Sorry for not present my hand in real converted format, but I don't know why it came out this way, hope you guys can work it out anyway


Sune

Prima Network $100 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1631853
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $196.20
UTG: $166.20
CO: $101.50
Hero (BTN): $103.00
SB: $120.70

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with 2 A
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, BB raises to $11, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($22.50) 3 K K (2 players)
BB bets $11, Hero calls $11

Turn: ($44.50) 3 (2 players)
BB bets $22, Hero raises to $81

you rep a lot of Ahigh and underpairs when you call flop so if he's reasonably aggro he'll be two barreling here a decent amount, making this +EV. Given those assumptions calling and trying to hit or get to showdown is probably +EV too. Not sure which one is better, depends on how he plays the river prob.

Thanks you very much sir, how did you do duffle?

you rep a lot of Ahigh and underpairs when you call flop so if he's reasonably aggro he'll be two barreling here a decent amount, making this +EV. Given those assumptions calling and trying to hit or get to showdown is probably +EV too. Not sure which one is better, depends on how he plays the river prob.

Villain seems like a dishonest player: http://screenshooter.net/3651144/vssddvu , capable of folding to a shove ott, therefore shove > call.

I fold pf.

with marco thats a big 3 bet to be calling, even being IP.