Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

What assumptions would you make for calling ranges in this spot, in NL100?

if we don't know if he's good or bad, let's just assume people find it really difficult to fold TP and proceed from there. the hand is fairly trivial then.

and also not start pulling up stats like MP PFR and WTSD and PTR stats that give zero information about how villain actually reacts postflop in this spot to justify our play.

Dabbling w/ combonator I'd say it comes down to AK/AQ and how you think he plays his draws and sets/2pair/straights on the flop and turn. Villain is probably more likely to raise sets/two pair than draws on the flop. Halfpotting the river looks like an option too but then you obv need him to not raise his draws on flop/turn.

When it comes to the preflop range, I think you can make an argument that this might be pretty close. It might not be perfect, but meh, I think it's too nit picky to argue.

When it comes to the flop, do you think villain is aggro enough to raise/ship w/ KQs/98s or even 2pair/set of 4's for that matter? You're line looks so so so strong here when you donk lead into 3 other players so just curious why you think he raise/shoves here? Would you typically lead out here with your FD's? If so, does villain know that? Again, not saying he wouldn't, but just curious.

Yeah probably not. I think that he can raise/ship w 44's for sure. He probably calls those kind of hands. My bad. I don't lead FD's, I don't lead any kind of hand so, If he is checking my stats often he will know that.

if we don't know if he's good or bad, let's just assume people find it really difficult to fold TP and proceed from there. the hand is fairly trivial then.

and also not start pulling up stats like MP PFR and WTSD and PTR stats that give zero information about how villain actually reacts postflop in this spot to justify our play.

So, that's your assumption for NL100 Regs?

http://www.deucescracked.com/forums/34-Small-Stakes-Shorthanded-NL/425481-1001st-post

Even If he call, it is a very good spot for our image.

It think nawhead is trying to justify his shortsighted for this kind of spots.

Just an opinion no offense.

http://www.deucescracked.com/forums/34-Small-Stakes-Shorthanded-NL/425481-1001st-post

Thanks!

Even If he call, it is a very good spot for our image.

that's a pretty horrible reason imo. we could start using that argument for spewing all day. a -EV play is a -EV play. and there are other hands we could play for a donk,donk,donk bluff if we were trying to set up some super awesome bluffy image (tho this is even debatable considering how awkward and uncommon this particular spot is).

He has 2p here like always. C/f.

Won't this player also have a lot of draws that missed, especially flush draws? I think he raises the flop w/ JT, and the turn w/ AJ, right? Why would he play those passively on this wet of a board? Maybe he would play AT like this, or KJ/ QJ/ Jx/?

Also, what about just betting smaller? The sizing looks really big, I understand you want to be able get all in when the king of hearts rolls off, haha, but the why not bet like 8 on the flop and maybe like 15 on the turn, then you could bet/ fold on the river?

Won't this player also have a lot of draws that missed, especially flush draws? I think he raises the flop w/ JT, and the turn w/ AJ, right? Why would he play those passively on this wet of a board? Maybe he would play AT like this, or KJ/ QJ/ Jx/?

Why would he raise OP's donk here? OP himself said that he wouldn't donk lead here with FD's so this lead multi-way SHOULD be preceived as 2pair+ here.

Why would he raise OP's donk here? OP himself said that he wouldn't donk lead here with FD's so this lead multi-way SHOULD be preceived as 2pair+ here.

I guess to price out flush draws, etc, especially with another player yet to act. I meant I thought he would raise JT on the flop, not necessarily Jx. Would he really just call JT here?

I mean I guess I see the argument for raising JT if we're villain here being that we aren't closing the action.

However, just for a second, put yourself in villain's shoes...

You raise JT and it goes four handed. SB donks out to you on the same flop, BB folds, you raise, BTN folds and SB 3bets/shoves. What do you do then? JT is a bluffcatcher and has about 29% equity vs sets, JT and the 2-3 monster combo draws. If you're holding 44, you have about 33.9% equity. TT vs that range is 56.8% equity. Like I said before, JT is just about the same as 44 here...is villain capable of thinking like this, who knows, but I still stand behind the fact that villain's calling range is stronger than some are giving him credit for so do we think he's capable of folding 2pair+ here?

Maybe he's capable of folding 2 pr, however I think to sit there and say, Im gonna make him lay down two pair is kinda reckless. I think he'll have spades a lot and Jx a lot too though, and those hands will likely fold. I just think the pot is too bloated, and smaller betsizes would work better so we don't have to commit all the money in order to bet the river. I think we have the best hand on the river a good amount of the time, which is why I don't prefer to c/f river. And when we don't have the best hand, there are some hands that fold. I don't know, maybe just c/ f flop and avoid the river dilemma.

River bet is so clear here to me, seems so weak not to do so.

But op could make some range construction, and present some stove results.

I think a part of the problem with this that when we're leading here, we're repping a polarized range against which draws are very likely to take a passive line. If you're MP with KQo here, raising would only isolate you against the top of the donkbettors range, which you have very little equity against.

JJ/TT I think are still in your perceived range. It can be discounted a little because it could be squeezed preflop, but people will also flat with those hands because of this particular BB.

If you consider the types of hands the opponents will be calling your donkbet with, and how our particular hand plays on future streets vs those hands, it doesn't bode well for us. For instance, against hands like AJ, KJ, QJ, KQ, AQ, AK, the cards that increase our equity also either make their hand or increase their equity with two pairs and gutshots. In fact, there are very little turn and river combinations that don't have this problem. On high cards villain's average pot equity increases, on low cards our fold equity decreases.

I think there are still enough flops where we can play this hand profitably postflop with this particular BB. Without this player, I much rather prefer a squeeze to a call, being OOP.