Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

I think betting the river depends on what you expect him to do with certain hands on the turn. If you expect him to call again with like KJs, QJs, QQ, KK, then betting river is probably pretty good. He should fold all of these hands and some Axss hands. I think I would bet like 60 or 65 as opposed to shoving if I decided to bet.

is villain calling us down with 100% of his 20% opening range?

Never, but I'm leading flop against a 20% range and that's not a strong range. It gets narrow but he can probably have all Axs hands, that "should" fold the river to a big bet or a ship.

I think betting the river depends on what you expect him to do with certain hands on the turn. If you expect him to call again with like KJs, QJs, QQ, KK, then betting river is probably pretty good. He should fold all of these hands and some Axss hands. I think I would bet like 60 or 65 as opposed to shoving if I decided to bet.

These are datamined hand so it's hard to know what he would call turn with. I think that he can call with AJ, and Axs hands. I think that he would have raised combo draws on the flop. But AK, AQ, can call at least two streets. Don't know if AQ calls flop without a backdoor flushdraw.

Since you think he is a weak player I think AQ is definitely in his flop calling range. given that he is raising combo draws I think a majority of his range on the river is strong A's and two pairs, so I wouldn't bluff here.

I think you're giving someone way too much credit based on stats alone. This is why datamining sucks, but that's a whole other thread. The fact that in your OP you classify villain as fishy means he probably doesn't really pay too much attention to your "image" and is going to play his cards pretty much face up. This whole hand was played pretty strange, but as for the river, I think x/f>shoving for reasons already stated.

I think you're giving someone way too much credit based on stats alone. This is why datamining sucks, but that's a whole other thread. The fact that in your OP you classify villain as fishy means he probably doesn't really pay too much attention to your "image" and is going to play his cards pretty much face up. This whole hand was played pretty strange, but as for the river, I think x/f>shoving for reasons already stated.

I didn't said he was fishy. Stats in general are overrated. Reads/notes and generak assumptions from the stake you'r playing, are the most important things imo.

Thanks anyway.

Never, but I'm leading flop against a 20% range and that's not a strong range. It gets narrow but he can probably have all Axs hands, that "should" fold the river to a big bet or a ship.

we have a general template for this player who we assume is bad ("looser" note in OP means he's a losing player over 9K?) because he opens too loose in MP. so based on that alone we seem to be donk barreling him. but then we turn around and assume he's good enough (or maybe weak-tight?) to fold to 3 barrels after putting him on a range of mostly TP or better on this board. do you see any inconsistency in this thinking?

we have a general template for this player who we assume is bad ("looser" note in OP means he's a losing player over 9K?) because he opens too loose in MP. so based on that alone we seem to be donk barreling him. but then we turn around and assume he's good enough (or maybe weak-tight?) to fold to 3 barrels after putting him on a range of mostly TP or better on this board. do you see any inconsistency in this thinking?

I said he was a reg, Looser in 9k hands (PTR), that doesn't mean he is a Loosing reg. Sample size doesn't really matter.

I said he was a reg, Looser in 9k hands (PTR), that doesn't mean he is a Loosing reg. Sample size doesn't really matter.

so is he good or bad? he likes to open too wide in early position and also too scared to calldown with TP? it seems like we're cherry-picking the attributes that we need for villain to defend our bluff.

so is he good or bad? he likes to open too wide in early position and also too scared to calldown with TP? it seems like we're cherry-picking the attributes that we need for villain to defend our bluff.

I play on the team "foldments" and we are looking for new players.

Can we made a bid on you?

so is he good or bad? he likes to open too wide in early position and also too scared to calldown with TP? it seems like we're cherry-picking the attributes that we need for villain to defend our bluff.

He looks ok. Him being loosing doesn't mean he is bad. 20% Open UTG is too wide without donks in the blinds. That's probably a leak.

How are you going to get info about his calling down ranges if you are not willing to 3brl?
Because is different to see him calling against another reg.

What assumptions would you make for calling ranges in this spot, in NL100?

so is he good or bad? he likes to open too wide in early position and also too scared to calldown with TP? it seems like we're cherry-picking the attributes that we need for villain to defend our bluff.

+1 I agree with this. btu, I apologize for my first comment as I read the hand history wrong. However, when your only justifications for overbet/bluffing the river here is datamined stats which you say are overrated, then I can't help but want more info. I'm sorry if I seem like I'm nit picking, but unless you have specific reads of how villain plays in these spots, then you're just clicking buttons blind IMO. I'm not saying either way if it's a good play or not, but instead of stating what his WTSD% is or that he opens 20% from MP, how about construct a preflop range for us, then conduct a donk flop/turn calling range and then based on that we can discuss if shoving here is a good play.

+1 I agree with this. btu, I apologize for my first comment as I read the hand history wrong. However, when your only justifications for overbet/bluffing the river here is datamined stats which you say are overrated, then I can't help but want more info. I'm sorry if I seem like I'm nit picking, but unless you have specific reads of how villain plays in these spots, then you're just clicking buttons blind IMO. I'm not saying either way if it's a good play or not, but instead of stating what his WTSD% is or that he opens 20% from MP, how about construct a preflop range for us, then conduct a donk flop/turn calling range and then based on that we can discuss if shoving here is a good play.

So, we can't do things just because we don't know how villain is going to react? I think most villain's in NL100 will fold that river quite often to a ship. If i don't have reads/stats, I have to follow my one assumptions about NL100. Maybe they're wrong. Or I would by playing NL10k for sure.

Opening range: 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,A9o+,KJo+,QJo (19.2%)

Flop: I think he would raise/ship flop w KQs, JT, 98s, JJ/TT/44.

Turn: He get's there w AJ, KJ, not sure about AK/AQ (probably the one's with backdoor flush), A2s-AKs (without ATs and A4s off course) and probably nothing more.

River: He gets there w AJ for sure, A2s-AKs (without ATs and A4s off course)

These are my assumptions against a std reg in NL100. Some will fold the turn with some of these hands, others will call.

Opening range: 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,A9o+,KJo+,QJo (19.2%)

Flop: I think he would raise/ship flop w KQs, JT, 98s, JJ/TT/44.

Turn: He get's there w AJ, KJ, not sure about AK/AQ (probably the one's with backdoor flush), A2s-AKs (without ATs and A4s off course) and probably nothing more.

River: He gets there w AJ for sure, A2s-AKs (without ATs and A4s off course)

These are my assumptions against a std reg in NL100. Some will fold the turn with some of these hands, others will call.

When it comes to the preflop range, I think you can make an argument that this might be pretty close. It might not be perfect, but meh, I think it's too nit picky to argue.

When it comes to the flop, do you think villain is aggro enough to raise/ship w/ KQs/98s or even 2pair/set of 4's for that matter? You're line looks so so so strong here when you donk lead into 3 other players so just curious why you think he raise/shoves here? Would you typically lead out here with your FD's? If so, does villain know that? Again, not saying he wouldn't, but just curious.