Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
Hero ($100)
BB ($119)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($52.25)
CO ($34)
BTN ($93.90)

Dealt to Hero A A

UTG raises to $3, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $2.50, fold

FLOP ($7) 2 T J

Hero checks, UTG bets $5, Hero raises to $16, UTG calls $11

TURN ($39) 2 T J 4

Hero checks, UTG checks

RIVER ($39) 2 T J 4 6

Hero bets $22, UTG calls $22

I almost always flat my premiums blinds vs UTG unless table dynamic tells me to do otherwise.
Villain is opening 18% from UTG, CBet:59%/Fold to C/R:47%/WTSD:27/AggF:39,37,29

I wasn't quite sure I should bet the turn here. I couldn't really see any worse hands calling apart from KK or QQ with a club that would call the turn but fold the river. So I decided to Ck turn and bet again the river to get value from worse hands than QQ and KK.

What do you think about the sizing on the river? Should I bet bigger?

the river bet makes sense as played, though i would go a bit bigger. he would bet turn with stuff like KQ and 98, so he should always have a bluffcatcher. people hate folding rivers when your line could still contain a lot of bluffs. i doubt it does when you check turn, but people will be going off your flop c/r.

preflop: there is a lot of merit to flatting AA here, and there is a lot of merit to developing a 3b range. unlike in some other spots, it will be hard to have a 3b range here v an observant opponent w/o AA, since your entire value range would be something like KK/AK or so. it is nice to protect your generally weak flatting range, too.

OTOH, people open way too much UTG still and it could be quite profitable to develop a bluffing range here. some of the comfort and confidence you need to execute that will come from seeing how people play against your value range. for instance, if you record that people fold to 3/5 of your value bets, you should be bluffing more!

flop: i don't think i would c/r this texture if i didn't feel that betting most turns would be profitable if flatted. you're almost always going to see a b/f or a b/c on this texture, so you should think about how the turn will go on many cards. clubs, J, 9, Q, etc are a lot of cards. i am concerned you didn't think enough about his range to b/c the flop or about how the turn might play out.

turn: see above, mostly

I think having a 3 betting range vs a 18% open is very reasonable. We can construct a 8% 3 betting range and nothing villain can do about it except play tighter.

On the river I think you should check. Betting reps no bluffs so villain has to be pretty bad to call with a bluff catcher. Anything that calls the river should also bet himself + he will bet some bluffs. Betting the river only has merit vs passive opponents who doesn't hand read.

what about donking the flop on this texture and him not being a chronic cbettor?

On the river I think you should check. Betting reps no bluffs so villain has to be pretty bad to call with a bluff catcher. Anything that calls the river should also bet himself + he will bet some bluffs. Betting the river only has merit vs passive opponents who doesn't hand read.

i agree with you, however i think most people are pretty bad in river spots like this and call way too frequently

flop: i don't think i would c/r this texture if i didn't feel that betting most turns would be profitable if flatted. you're almost always going to see a b/f or a b/c on this texture, so you should think about how the turn will go on many cards. clubs, J, 9, Q, etc are a lot of cards. i am concerned you didn't think enough about his range to b/c the flop or about how the turn might play out.

turn: see above, mostly

Having a 3B range vs loose UTG opens certainly make sense.

The fact that there are many cards that I am not happy about on the turn doesn't mean I can't get value on the flop by C/R? Since the board is very drawy I expect a lot to get called by worse. If the turn is a bad card for us then we reevaluate but shouldnt we get as much value as possible on the flop?

I would certainly give up on Q,9 but I am not sure about clubs. As played would you bet the turn?

I personally have AA mostly in my 3bet_range vs. many UTG-REGs b/c I also have there a decent wide Bluff3betrange.

Anyways,
I think the X/R on the flop is with the positions and the perceived tighter ranges just overplayed.
With later positions like exspecially BTNvsBB that would be of course another story then.

as played,
I am not so sure tbh if the turn is rly a check while we are blocking all the Nutflushes - could be though, I am just not sure about it - it is for sure obv. the most comfortable and easiest play here, which does not mean that it cannot be as well the best plays here - just not sure, tbh.

as played,
vs. a solid opponent you obv. rep zero Bluffs after have checked the turn on this card, so he should fold all his bluffcatchers.
The problem though is that a solid opponent should also not val.bet here worse vs. your perceived range.
-> hence i agree with terp and would just anyways bet myself, exspecially at NL100.
In such a spot where
- you can rep hardly bluffs by betting
- Villain will/should checkback his entire madehand-range,

you can just try an underbet.

Having a 3B range vs loose UTG opens certainly make sense.

The fact that there are many cards that I am not happy about on the turn doesn't mean I can't get value on the flop by C/R? Since the board is very drawy I expect a lot to get called by worse. If the turn is a bad card for us then we reevaluate but shouldnt we get as much value as possible on the flop?

I would certainly give up on Q,9 but I am not sure about clubs. As played would you bet the turn?

the board development is just one thing that goes into you flop decisions (lead c/c or c/r). your perceived range, your opponent's range and his tendencies are also very important. by the river, most runouts will place your hand pretty low in your perceived range and probably improve his actual range.

in short, c/r is probably overplaying your hand on this board.