Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

No reads on player, only 18 hands at the table, seemed taggish. I call turn to let him keep barrelling, but the river is imo a marginal spot. Comments?

Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1560924
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MP: $103.20
CO: $149.70
BTN: $100.00
Hero (SB): $100.00
BB: $100.00
UTG: $390.75

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with 8 A
1 fold, MP raises to $3, CO calls $3, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($10.00) K 8 8 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $7.10, CO folds, Hero calls $7.10

Turn: ($24.20) A (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $12, Hero calls $12

River: ($48.20) J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $25, Hero...

Super happy to shove here. Sure, he has KK and AA sometimes for a maximum of 4 combos, somewhat discounted in my opinion because of the smallish bet size, but he also has AK, AJ, QTs and the rare 8xs that can definitely talk themselves into making a bad call. You also rep so incredibly narrow that he can decide to herocall with even worse hands thinking that you turned 99 or something.

I'm thinking this is a squeeze or fold spot pre, but I could be wrong. As played, I'm shoving.

As played, I'm shoving.

his small turn bet scares me into thinking he might just check back the river, not much we can do about it tho.

Do you not think AJ and AQ would check back the turn? AK would bet the turn, and often bet the river, but not always. Can't see QT barrelling the turn, but it's possible. pocket pairs under KK also check back. It seemed to me at the time that his river value range would be quite narrow. He has AK, sometimes AJ, sometimes AA and KK, some 8s I guess, and that's about it. What part of this range calls a shove? Do we beat any of it?

Any ace is a slam-dunk valuebet for Villain on the turn since most of your perceived range is KQ, KJs, 99 TT and maybe JJ. If he shouldn't bet Ax for value on the turn you're folding way too many of your bluffcatchers and he can barrel the scary ace with tons of air.

The betsize is also very indicative of some thin value, and even though Villain probably showed up with KK this time it's still a profitable shove on the river.

Its alot closer then people make it look in this thread. When you take this line, you basically have trips or better always. Would be very optimistic of villain to call your ch/r on the river with AK-AJ.

the amount of combo's he can have that are better are just so minimal, 1x AA, 3x, KK and give him 1 combo of QTs. still if we look at his potential 8X hands, 89s, 87s. That is really it, maybe K8s and maybe 86s/T8s. Those are 5 combo's maximum if he never folds. Really if you look at it combo wise and assume villain wont call without trips or better, its a call.

The only way he can potentially talk himself into calling wider, is if he thinks you might ship Ax to get him off a split(turn a pair into a bluff), which isn't something your average tag assumes against unknowns.

Its alot closer then people make it look in this thread. When you take this line, you basically have trips or better always. Would be very optimistic of villain to call your ch/r on the river with AK-AJ.

Yeah, to me this is the important point. We can be ahead of his betting range but I think it is unlikely that he would call a shove with a hand we beat.

As played i think its close but i still be pushing the River and hope he talks himself into a bad call i mean him having a better Hand here is just so rare combo wise, but the real Problem is that on the River Ranges get so narrow on these types of Boards...

What do you guys think of a c/r on the Flop? I mean i wouldnt expect him ever to fold any Kx Hand and he might be even calling with QQ-TT once or Ahigh and ofcourse 8x, also you cant really expect him to secondbarrel too often without an A showing on the Turn, so you get stacks in vs a wider Range

lot of pessimism in this thread

when we have virtually 0 value combos we should be jamming them as a default unless we have a very good reason. ppl bet plenty of hands on the turn and river that can call here. we need him to bet call five hands worse than KK to call here. QTs alone is four, making this breakeven if he never calls worse than a straight.

really easy jam

i'd have folded pre and played flop and turn the same

Imo preflop can be either a sqz or as well an overcall with Axs depending on the opponents.
Flop and turn are then fine.

River i would here tbh only call.
I mean, if his B/Call_range is this (w all four combos of QTs):

KK+,JJ,A8s,QTs,
you would have only 36% EQ vs. such a B/Callrange.
Hence X/Call seems for me better here.
Doubt that ppl would B/Call here lighter b/c you have just zero air in your range and likely less ppl would assume that someone would turn here a hand like KJs into a bluff.

really easy jam

i'd have folded pre and played flop and turn the same

I`d do the same exact. and river imo it`s a good shove. Because we play vs unknown and our play should be default, and by default it`s a shove. and I dont expect him betting half river with straight here or with full (nuts). And ppl do really more mistakes by calling than by folding, I mean they do bad call more often then bad fold (I mean hands like AK, AJ etc).

River i would here tbh only call.
I mean, if his B/Call_range is this (w all four combos of QTs):

KK+,JJ,A8s,QTs,
you would have only 36% EQ vs. such a B/Callrange.
Hence X/Call seems for me better here.
Doubt that ppl would B/Call here lighter b/c you have just zero air in your range and likely less ppl would assume that someone would turn here a hand like KJs into a bluff.

Villain has JJ like never which makes our equity vs that range 50% as terp mentioned. Also people like to click call and our line makes little sense.

Imo preflop can be either a sqz or as well an overcall with Axs depending on the opponents.
Flop and turn are then fine.

River i would here tbh only call.
I mean, if his B/Call_range is this (w all four combos of QTs):

KK+,JJ,A8s,QTs,
you would have only 36% EQ vs. such a B/Callrange.
Hence X/Call seems for me better here.
Doubt that ppl would B/Call here lighter b/c you have just zero air in your range and likely less ppl would assume that someone would turn here a hand like KJs into a bluff.

JJ makes no sense for him to have

i would overcall A8s closing the action three-way or call in the SB had two people called, but i can't really provide any math

XR flop ... hard for you to rep a weak range when you XC OOP 3way => Villain is not going to barrel many turns... A XR does not contain many value combos => hard for Villain to fold sd value... as played shoving and calling are close ... 100nl i would shove