Crackmonkey
599 posts
Joined 06/2009
Dont you think AK is in his range? I know its hard for him to call the flop with AK but like you said maybe he can call and then see what we decides to do in the turn, specially given that he has position on us
No I think you'll see a lot more cold 4 bets with AK than calls here. I think someone who does cold call the 3 bet here with AK is calling because they'd rather try to flop a pair than get stacks in preflop and probably are not planning to continue when they miss. If he can ever have AK on the turn, I think it's a small enough % of the time that it doesn't affect the profitability of barreling off.
Posted over 1 year ago
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tirofish
2 posts
Joined 07/2011
i agree that the best play is to shove, just thought maybe we had to put at least one combination of ak on his range.
one thing i was also thinking is if we know that we may get called on the turn by a hand with a high flush draw, cant we make the turn bet smaller so that the river shove doesnt give our opponent such good odds. if any non hearted card comes on the river we want our opponent to have a really hard time calling our bet.
Posted over 1 year ago
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Crackmonkey
599 posts
Joined 06/2009
i agree that the best play is to shove, just thought maybe we had to put at least one combination of ak on his range.
one thing i was also thinking is if we know that we may get called on the turn by a hand with a high flush draw, cant we make the turn bet smaller so that the river shove doesnt give our opponent such good odds. if any non hearted card comes on the river we want our opponent to have a really hard time calling our bet.
Even when villain is getting almost 3:1 on the call like in this hand, I still don't think he's going to call with the types of hands that we expect him to get to the river with. You could bet the turn here a little smaller, but I wouldn't bet much less than half pot. The reason villain is calling on the turn is because he thinks that while there is a really good chance he is behind, he still has a way to win the pot ( flush ). Once the river comes a non-heart, all he's going to think is that he's behind with no more cards to help him out. Yes, you are giving him good odds to call on the river, but he also knows that you know that, which just makes your line look even stronger.
Posted over 1 year ago
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Branch10
583 posts
Joined 07/2010
Branch10
583 posts
Joined 07/2010
Time Link to 00:53:41
If villain's range is 99-JJ with a heart and KQ,AQ he will fold 33% of the time and with a 1/2 pot bet we need 33% FE but we're not sure if he would always flat 99, TT, JJ preflop(he might sometimes 4-bet or fold) and when we add only a few combos of slowplays our bet comes -EV, thus I think it's a check on the river.
Posted over 1 year ago
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UknowMe
98 posts
Joined 07/2010
Board: 4h3hQcAhKc
Equity Win Tie
MP2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% { 6d6c }
MP3 100.00% 100.00% 0.00% { JJ, KdKh, KhKs, KhKc, QdQs, KhQh, AdQh, AsQh, AcQh, KdQh, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KsQh, KcQh }
thats 17 combos total. If Villian has only JJ (not 99;TT) in his range and fold it to a river shove he folds 6 out of 17 combos wich is 35,3% so the shove its slightly +EV
Posted over 1 year ago
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