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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by Crackmonkey (Micro/Small Stakes)

Time Link to 00:00:43

100euros is a little bit less than 600 dollars.

100euros is a little bit less than 600 dollars.

My lame attempt at humor

Time Link to 00:20:17

I would definitely expect KQ to fold to a river shove some % of the time. It is difficult against unknown but I think his range is capped to KQ/AQ at best and some players are definitely capable of folding these if we bet 22 on the turn and jam the river. I think if the pot was a little less inflated or stacks were deeper it would be a nice spot to bet the turn and overbet the river.

Guess its pretty spewy doing that without reads though.

Time Link to 00:23:40

Haven't seen the results yet but I think river is a fold. I think he plays KQ and AQ like this 100% of the time which is 24 combos. It's also not beyond the realms of possibility that he flats QJ or 66 here a small % of the time with the fishy player left to act behind on the flop. That's not including QT which we should include if we include KT.

I don't think we can automatically assume players flat KTs or T9s here preflop and some c/r the flop and of the spade draw hands AQ/KQ and maybe QT beat us, AK likely 3 bets pre, ATss, KTss T9ss and 98ss likely checkraise the flop, so that leaves 87s which is also discounted because it will c/r the flop some % of the time and in the case of may not call pre. Definitely don't think we can just assume the offsuit connectors are in his range. I think this is far from a clear call.

Time Link to 00:27:05

QJ hand, On a wetter board I would be very much inclined to just stick it in here. Its like you just mentioned "what does his bet size look like he wants from us" and to me this looks like he wants a fold. But on this board texture there are basically no draws he can have to semibluff. It seems like a strange texture to just spaz bluff for no reason and I would expect people to want to bluff cheaper.

On the other side of the coin I don't expect a set to play this fast as he doesn't want to scare us off. If this was a two tone board I would probably just stick it on but on a board this dry I think his most likely hand is either KQ/AQ type hand that wants to retardedly "protect" or AA/KK where this guy is a fish and thinks his devilish preflop trap has worked and now he's springing it.

Time Link to 01:00:51

Shoving seems to me to just making the easiest decision rather than the best one. Surely just calling twice is better than shoving because it costs less when we run into his value hands and at least allows him to continue bluffing. I think his bet sizing and timing make two pair very unlikely. So the hands we're trying to bluff are sets. I think trying to make people fold sets at 100NL is definitely going to be a costly exercise, especially as the only hand you really credibly rep with a shove is 99 as sets likely get it in on the flop and 8s don't typically overbet shove the turn. Shoving to protect against a weaker flush draw with overs is very poor in my opinion as its only 6 combos and only has 12ish % equity against us and it also prevents us from coolering him on the river and potentially stacking when he folds those hands. I think its really hard to make a good argument for shoving the turn.

Shoving seems to me to just making the easiest decision rather than the best one. Surely just calling twice is better than shoving because it costs less when we run into his value hands and at least allows him to continue bluffing. I think his bet sizing and timing make two pair very unlikely. So the hands we're trying to bluff are sets. I think trying to make people fold sets at 100NL is definitely going to be a costly exercise, especially as the only hand you really credibly rep with a shove is 99 as sets likely get it in on the flop and 8s don't typically overbet shove the turn. Shoving to protect against a weaker flush draw with overs is very poor in my opinion as its only 6 combos and only has 12ish % equity against us and it also prevents us from coolering him on the river and potentially stacking when he folds those hands. I think its really hard to make a good argument for shoving the turn.

I'm having a hard time articulating why i think shoving is a pretty good play there. I have a feeling its going to take me ages to explain and prob not that well.
I will say that calling and calling all rivers must be fine as well and can be convinced it is better.

I could say something along the lines of him being able to play the river better then we will if we call the turn. Its very hard to say.

I would definitely expect KQ to fold to a river shove some % of the time. It is difficult against unknown but I think his range is capped to KQ/AQ at best and some players are definitely capable of folding these if we bet 22 on the turn and jam the river. I think if the pot was a little less inflated or stacks were deeper it would be a nice spot to bet the turn and overbet the river.

Guess its pretty spewy doing that without reads though.

I definitely agree that the best hands he shows up with on the river are KQ, and sometimes AQ if he chooses not to 3bet that hand. As a default, I am not expecting AQ to fold to a river jam, and, without any reads on this particular player, it's really hard to say whether or not he folds KQ as well. If you jam and he insta-folds, he had a draw, and if he tanks and folds he probably folded KQ and you'll have your information.

I don't think I would say that it's spewy necessarily, but I would say that it's a very high variance play against an unknown.

Haven't seen the results yet but I think river is a fold. I think he plays KQ and AQ like this 100% of the time which is 24 combos. It's also not beyond the realms of possibility that he flats QJ or 66 here a small % of the time with the fishy player left to act behind on the flop. That's not including QT which we should include if we include KT.

I don't think we can automatically assume players flat KTs or T9s here preflop and some c/r the flop and of the spade draw hands AQ/KQ and maybe QT beat us, AK likely 3 bets pre, ATss, KTss T9ss and 98ss likely checkraise the flop, so that leaves 87s which is also discounted because it will c/r the flop some % of the time and in the case of may not call pre. Definitely don't think we can just assume the offsuit connectors are in his range. I think this is far from a clear call.

I am also taking his timing into consideration here. In my experience, these quicker bets tends to be bluffs more often than value hands. Were he value betting, I would expect him to spend a little time thinking about how much he could bet to get value from us.

This guy is an unknown, so the only assumptions we can really make about him are what the average player does. That's why I don't expect him to be flatting QJ or 66 much, if at all, on the flop, and I also don't expect that he is check/raising the flop all that often with draws when it's multiway.

We're getting about 2.5:1 on the call, so we don't have to be right all that often for a call to be profitable, plus, even if we do lose, we gain information that we can use against this player later on. If he shows up with a T9os type hand here, we can assign him weaker ranges preflop in later hands and adjust accordingly.

QJ hand, On a wetter board I would be very much inclined to just stick it in here. Its like you just mentioned "what does his bet size look like he wants from us" and to me this looks like he wants a fold. But on this board texture there are basically no draws he can have to semibluff. It seems like a strange texture to just spaz bluff for no reason and I would expect people to want to bluff cheaper.

On the other side of the coin I don't expect a set to play this fast as he doesn't want to scare us off. If this was a two tone board I would probably just stick it on but on a board this dry I think his most likely hand is either KQ/AQ type hand that wants to retardedly "protect" or AA/KK where this guy is a fish and thinks his devilish preflop trap has worked and now he's springing it.

I don't expect that these overbet type check/raises are ever bluffs. We're dealing with a guy that limp/called preflop, so we already know that he is a weak player. His random stack size isn't helping his cause either. I would expect to see a lot of AA and KK here, some sets, and almost never anything that we're ahead of.

Shoving seems to me to just making the easiest decision rather than the best one. Surely just calling twice is better than shoving because it costs less when we run into his value hands and at least allows him to continue bluffing. I think his bet sizing and timing make two pair very unlikely. So the hands we're trying to bluff are sets. I think trying to make people fold sets at 100NL is definitely going to be a costly exercise, especially as the only hand you really credibly rep with a shove is 99 as sets likely get it in on the flop and 8s don't typically overbet shove the turn. Shoving to protect against a weaker flush draw with overs is very poor in my opinion as its only 6 combos and only has 12ish % equity against us and it also prevents us from coolering him on the river and potentially stacking when he folds those hands. I think its really hard to make a good argument for shoving the turn.

This hand is really interesting because I think villain's turn play completely contradicts the range we established on the flop. He bets so fast on the turn that there is almost no hand that he is check/raising on the flop that wouldn't need to at least think about what to do on this turn card. If he took 5 seconds to bet on the turn, I would be more inclined to include sets in his turn range, but given the timing and the expectation that he would check sets a good amount of the time, I just don't think he has any. I would apply the same logic to eliminating 2 pair hands from his range as well.

We're left with air, and maybe some funny TT or JJ type hand that didn't 3 bet preflop for some reason. We don't know his bluffing frequency on the river. He may just decide to give up with his air, in which case just calling and potentially letting him hit some sort of 6 outer isn't all that good. If we know that he is jamming all of his air on the river, calling the turn is obviously a much better play, but I don't give the average small stakes player much credit for being able to do this. I think it is much more likely he'll get intimidated by the thought of jamming his stack in the middle with nothing and give up.

I would probably think about this hand differently if we were playing 400NL+.

I am also taking his timing into consideration here. In my experience, these quicker bets tends to be bluffs more often than value hands. Were he value betting, I would expect him to spend a little time thinking about how much he could bet to get value from us.

This guy is an unknown, so the only assumptions we can really make about him are what the average player does. That's why I don't expect him to be flatting QJ or 66 much, if at all, on the flop, and I also don't expect that he is check/raising the flop all that often with draws when it's multiway.

We're getting about 2.5:1 on the call, so we don't have to be right all that often for a call to be profitable, plus, even if we do lose, we gain information that we can use against this player later on. If he shows up with a T9os type hand here, we can assign him weaker ranges preflop in later hands and adjust accordingly.

I think you're giving too much credence to an unconfirmed read on his timing. If you actually watch the hand back it takes him over ten seconds to bet once the river peels off. I don't think that's particularly quick at all, and I think some people play a very mechanical style and don't necessarily think too much about bet sizing. It doesn't take long to think "I have a Q, on a board this draw heavy he always bets a Q or better on the turn, I'm going to bet my standard 2/3 pot here".

Leaving aside the timing and just looking at hand combos I think for value he has about 24-26 combos. Call it 25 for easiness sake. 12 KQ, 12 AQ, and one combo to account for a slowplayed QJ/66 or a QTs. So 25 may actually be a teeny little bit conservative.

I don't think we can assume an average player calls T9o or KTo preflop here. So if we give him KTs, T9s and spade draws as potential draws on the flop. Of the spade draws AKs 3 bets pre, AQ/KQ/QT beats us, AT, KT, T9, 98 all c/r the flop leaving just 87s. (I don't think we can assume the average player calls 54s or suited gappers here or A2-A9s). so that leaves 6 combos of bare OESDs and one combo of 87s, and again even those hands might c/r the flop some amount of the time. Again, for easiness sake call it 5 combos of missed draws. That leaves his range weight 25:5 in favour of value hands. In order just to break even we have to discount his value combos by half based on an unconfirmed timing tell which actually wasn't even that quick of a bet. In order for this call to be breakeven disregarding the timing he has to have 8 extra combos of stuff like A2-A5ss or AThh type floats or something which I think is ambitious.

I think you're giving too much credence to an unconfirmed read on his timing. If you actually watch the hand back it takes him over ten seconds to bet once the river peels off. I don't think that's particularly quick at all, and I think some people play a very mechanical style and don't necessarily think too much about bet sizing. It doesn't take long to think "I have a Q, on a board this draw heavy he always bets a Q or better on the turn, I'm going to bet my standard 2/3 pot here".

Leaving aside the timing and just looking at hand combos I think for value he has about 24-26 combos. Call it 25 for easiness sake. 12 KQ, 12 AQ, and one combo to account for a slowplayed QJ/66 or a QTs. So 25 may actually be a teeny little bit conservative.

I don't think we can assume an average player calls T9o or KTo preflop here. So if we give him KTs, T9s and spade draws as potential draws on the flop. Of the spade draws AKs 3 bets pre, AQ/KQ/QT beats us, AT, KT, T9, 98 all c/r the flop leaving just 87s. (I don't think we can assume the average player calls 54s or suited gappers here or A2-A9s). so that leaves 6 combos of bare OESDs and one combo of 87s, and again even those hands might c/r the flop some amount of the time. Again, for easiness sake call it 5 combos of missed draws. That leaves his range weight 25:5 in favour of value hands. In order just to break even we have to discount his value combos by half based on an unconfirmed timing tell which actually wasn't even that quick of a bet. In order for this call to be breakeven disregarding the timing he has to have 8 extra combos of stuff like A2-A5ss or AThh type floats or something which I think is ambitious.

I had paused the video in there. I don't have the original with me at work, but I'll check it again tonight to see exactly what the timing was. I definitely wouldn't have considered 10 seconds to bet quick, by any means.

I have seen plenty of guys with reggish looking stats make some pretty loose calls with the aforementioned T9os and KTos and similiar hands, so I'm definitely not going to completely discount them from his range. I also expect that there is a non-zero percentage of the time he doesn't lead a Q hoping that we try a river bluff.

All that said, you make a lot of valid points and it is very obvious that you can dissect this particular spot and make arguments either way. In game, we don't have time to do that, so I look at the situation, consider the fact that there are a lot of ways that he can be bluffing, and make the call with the understanding that I am going to lose a fair amount of the time, I don't need to be right all that often for it to be profitable, and I gain information that can help me make more +EV decisions against this player in the future.

I watched the end of this video, because the main action with

Hero is CO with A 9

Turn: ($37.05) 7 5 6 9

SB bets $23, Hero ships

Hand was against my poker buddy
He x/r the flop and instantly b/f the turn with K J