blah234
2532 posts
Joined 12/2009
ok thanks for your patience,
to be clear, if you put 2 overs (=6 outs) in air you put also guthot in air category?, so a player who CB gtushot is polarized?
what about draws with 8 outs or better (open ended, naked flush draws, combos draws...), air too? a player who CB a naked FD 8 high is polarized?
so the key factor is medium hands ? does he CB medium hands or not:
if he CB medium hands (bottom pairs to TP bad kiker ) he's depolarized (but there are different levels of depolarization, the more air he CB the more depolarized he is, but will often will a CB stat of 70% and more)
is that true? so we have to look this category to take the read
great way for improvement
You need to stop thinking about absolute hand strength of made hands and think about equity/relative hands strength before you get to the river. It's good that you figured out 2 people who cbet polarized or depolarized with have different ranges too. Hence why we want unique ranges too when playing back vs cbets.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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rohan68
653 posts
Joined 12/2008
Posiedon
361 posts
Joined 07/2011
Great video as expected.A few questions:
1) 1) At 4’22 top left table,44 hand.When he checks turn we assume he has SD value and so we c/f river.Did we assume he has SD value because it was a scare card and he did not bet???What if he checked back a 3 turn??
2) 2) At 5’45 bottom right table TT hand.When we bet turn our plan was to turn our hand into a bluff on a flush river.What if it is a blank???I frequently get lost in such spots on the river.
3) 3) At 16’14 top right table:K60 hand.Our plan was to stack of to raise.What if he called the flop.We are planning to db and commit ourselves right??I faces a similar hand:
Villain is 22/18 over 9k(datamined) hands.33% BTN open,68% f23b on btn.
39% f2cb in 3b pot.17% raise cbet.Af-2.2
WTSD-25%,WWSF-41
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($119)
Hero ($100)
UTG ($197)
CO ($103)
BTN ($100)
Dealt to Hero 9
K
fold, fold, BTN raises to $2.50, fold, Hero raises to $8, BTN calls $5.50
FLOP ($16.50) K
J
2
Hero bets $8.25, BTN raises to $24, Hero???
I should stack of here and if called still continue double barreling??
4) 4) At 20 min 66 hand,on the river you suggested a fold or raise and didn’t mention about calling.Since this guy isn’t repping anything why didn’t we just call there???As you say,he cant really have a Q there,if he has a 9 then he isn’t folding to our raise.77-88 too look unlikely as he cant expect anything better to fold to his half pot bet.So are we raising to solely push him off Jx???
5) 7) At 1 hr 01 min Top right table Q8o hand-why bet the river there after the fish already c/c the turn???The river card is not at all scary for him.
Thanks in advance.
Posted over 1 year ago
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blah234
2532 posts
Joined 12/2009
Great video as expected.A few questions:
1) 1) At 4’22 top left table,44 hand.When he checks turn we assume he has SD value and so we c/f river.Did we assume he has SD value because it was a scare card and he did not bet???What if he checked back a 3 turn??
I'd bet the river in that spot. Our goal should be to put the villain on a range and then figure out the highest EV line like I said in the previous episodes so don't I'm not betting the river vs every single villain.
2) 2) At 5’45 bottom right table TT hand.When we bet turn our plan was to turn our hand into a bluff on a flush river.What if it is a blank???I frequently get lost in such spots on the river.
Again put villain on a range and decide if you want to turn your hand into a bluff on bunch of other river cards. I'd probably bet any overcard and any flush vs this particular villain.
3) 3) At 16’14 top right table:K60 hand.Our plan was to stack of to raise.What if he called the flop.We are planning to db and commit ourselves right??
not double barreling if called as a default vs unknowns since I can't get 3 streets and no idea about their calling range on the turn. Your hand just showed a bunch of stats and impossible to figure out whats the best line. Stop putting so much value into stats and waste money on datamined hands.
4) 4) At 20 min 66 hand,on the river you suggested a fold or raise and didn’t mention about calling.Since this guy isn’t repping anything why didn’t we just call there???As you say,he cant really have a Q there,if he has a 9 then he isn’t folding to our raise.77-88 too look unlikely as he cant expect anything better to fold to his half pot bet.So are we raising to solely push him off Jx???
He's repping thin value which is more than Jx you should never ever ever call when villain reps thin value bet and your hand looks like the intended target.
5) 7) At 1 hr 01 min Top right table Q8o hand-why bet the river there after the fish already c/c the turn???The river card is not at all scary for him.
Thanks in advance.
He's repping a weak hand and fish can fold weak hands. We bet small to figure out what he folds and what he calls with so we can play those spots better in the future.
Posted over 1 year ago
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Posiedon
361 posts
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AstonMartin
960 posts
Joined 08/2009
Yep thats when iso Axs and pairs then reshipping on those guys is pretty sexy... Since they prolly need AQ plus to call and we block a few combos huh?... maybe spewy but im sure it cant be that bad!
It's terrible, do the math.
assuming we have ~30% when called we need villain to fold >64% of the time
assuming villain calls with 77+,AJs+,AQo+ out of 15% range, we are short of 6% fold precentage
since we rarely see a player who will reraise us with this wide of a range it becomes even more bad
edit:
actually with us having the A blocker, it doesnt seem terrible
AA-77,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs
189 combos pre
AA-77,AKo-AQo,AKs-ATs
75 combos he calls with
which means he folds 60% still short of about 4%
Posted over 1 year ago
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blah234
2532 posts
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assuming we have ~30% when called we need villain to fold >64% of the time
assuming villain calls with 77+,AJs+,AQo+ out of 15% range, we are short of 6% fold precentage
since we rarely see a player who will reraise us with this wide of a range it becomes even more bad
edit:
actually with us having the A blocker, it doesnt seem terrible
AA-77,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs
189 combos pre
AA-77,AKo-AQo,AKs-ATs
75 combos he calls with
which means he folds 60% still short of about 4%
It makes very little for someone to call a shove with suited hand but fold off suit like call AJs but fold AJo. Suited hands has 2% equity in all in situations vs off suit hands and there are 16 combos of off suit vs 4 combos of suited. AJo also has more equity than ATs so makes no sense to fold 16 combos of AJo but call 4 combos of ATs.
Posted over 1 year ago
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AstonMartin
960 posts
Joined 08/2009
AJo also has more equity than ATs so makes no sense to fold 16 combos of AJo but call 4 combos of ATs.
that was actually a mistake by me 
but nonetheless i wanted to see how bad it looks (with AJo he folds 55% of the time)
btw does it make sense to put half of AJ combos to rep a uncertainty about what he does with it ? i mean that im not 100% certiain that he will call with those, and im not 100% certain he will fold
oh and good series, i hope there will be more of u playing live or HH review in near future (mainly interpteting showdowns and non SD lines of villain)
Posted over 1 year ago
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blah234
2532 posts
Joined 12/2009
btw does it make sense to put half of AJ combos to rep a uncertainty about what he does with it ? i mean that im not 100% certiain that he will call with those, and im not 100% certain he will fold
Yes, you can do that to estimate equity vs villain's range. Also there is a none 0 chance that the villain for whatever reason is out of his comfort zone and doing something that doesn't make sense.
Posted over 1 year ago
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apv2009
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AAIcarusAA
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blah234
2532 posts
Joined 12/2009
AAIcarusAA
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blah234
2532 posts
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AAIcarusAA
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