fizzo
292 posts
Joined 01/2010
Time Link to 00:08:26
Why do you think it's such a bad play for him to lead the river with 33? Obviously he's a fish and doesn't know this, but you shouldn't really have a lot of better hands in your range, other than maybe 88,99, because I'd assume you'd probably barrel your Tx, 7x and overpair hands and not cbet pairs under 88 (?). And you're isolating from MP so you're gonna have a decent amount of Ax hands that can call. I guess he's just clicking buttons, but he's actually making a decent vbet here IMO, not merging like you said.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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fizzo
292 posts
Joined 01/2010
Time Link to 00:12:16
Would you barrel any river cards here? I think It's a very good spot to fire basically any river because he never has Kx+ if he c/calls the turn and you can have a lot of broadway cards in your range, when you check back that flop, that hit the K and are two barreling for value.
You said that you can rep thin value bets on the turn, are there really any hands (worse than Kx) that you check back on the flop and now vbet the turn with? I assume you'd cbet your 9x or better hands, because of the texture, so are you vbetting something like 88, 78s, A7s here, and why?
Posted almost 2 years ago
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blah234
2525 posts
Joined 12/2009
blah234
2525 posts
Joined 12/2009
Why do you think it's such a bad play for him to lead the river with 33? Obviously he's a fish and doesn't know this, but you shouldn't really have a lot of better hands in your range, other than maybe 88,99, because I'd assume you'd probably barrel your Tx, 7x and overpair hands and not cbet pairs under 88 (?). And you're isolating from MP so you're gonna have a decent amount of Ax hands that can call. I guess he's just clicking buttons, but he's actually making a decent vbet here IMO, not merging like you said.
for a vbet to make sense he has to have more than 50% equity vs my range not be ahead of some hands in my range. If I'm calling with A high then I'm also calling with 44+, he doen't have 50% equity vs my overall calling range.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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blah234
2525 posts
Joined 12/2009
Would you barrel any river cards here? I think It's a very good spot to fire basically any river because he never has Kx+ if he c/calls the turn and you can have a lot of broadway cards in your range, when you check back that flop, that hit the K and are two barreling for value.
You said that you can rep thin value bets on the turn, are there really any hands (worse than Kx) that you check back on the flop and now vbet the turn with? I assume you'd cbet your 9x or better hands, because of the texture, so are you vbetting something like 88, 78s, A7s here, and why?
yes I would barrel any river. It's perfectly reasonable to check a weak 9x hand like 97 on the flop because villain will not give himself a free card so he will bet the turn with a draw. He will not fold a draw so he will c/r or c/c flop bet with a draw anyways. If the draw hits he will win vs my 9x hands regardless if i bet the flop or not. Betting flop and turn may get more value from his draws instead of turn and river but you may also get c/r and have to fold. 9x is only a 2 street hand max so reasonable to check flop. Those hands you listed would be in my turn and river range.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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fizzo
292 posts
Joined 01/2010
Time Link to 00:12:16
Actually he has to have more than 50% equity vs your calling range, I think he's definitely ahead of the whole range you get to the river with, and if you call with A8, I think fish expect people to call with Ax here a lot, he's making a decent vbet. Here's a stove:
Board: 2h 7d Ts 7c 7h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.426% 34.43% 00.00% 252 0.00 { 88-77, 55-44, A8s+, JTs, A8o+, JTo }
Hand 1: 65.574% 65.57% 00.00% 480 0.00 { 33 }
I even gave you some pairs and Tx
Edit: the timelink is wrong, don't know how to remove
Posted almost 2 years ago
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fizzo
292 posts
Joined 01/2010
Seems like great video, I like that your'e not spending too much time to discuss one single hand. Will watch the rest of it and post more Qs later.
One suggestion though, if you haven't recorded footage for the next 3vids already, would be to turn on auto center, would make it much easier and less confusing to follow the action. Unless it makes you uncomfortable to play that way obviously.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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doc.lemon
1790 posts
Joined 07/2009
for a vbet to make sense he has to have more than 50% equity vs my range not be ahead of some hands in my range. If I'm calling with A high then I'm also calling with 44+, he doen't have 50% equity vs my overall calling range.
Are you implying that you check 88-99 and Tx on turn a lot and/or that you barrel a lot of AX hands ott?? because if not his bet is a clear cut value bet if he expects you to call A high by any definition. And he beats 2x too which he can expect will cbet and check turn some of the time 
Posted almost 2 years ago
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blah234
2525 posts
Joined 12/2009
Are you implying that you check 88-99 and Tx on turn a lot and/or that you barrel a lot of AX hands ott?? because if not his bet is a clear cut value bet if he expects you to call A high by any definition. And he beats 2x too which he can expect will cbet and check turn some of the time 
How would he or anyone for that matter know my barreling frequency or my actual range?
Posted almost 2 years ago
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blah234
2525 posts
Joined 12/2009
Actually he has to have more than 50% equity vs your calling range, I think he's definitely ahead of the whole range you get to the river with, and if you call with A8, I think fish expect people to call with Ax here a lot, he's making a decent vbet. Here's a stove:
Board: 2h 7d Ts 7c 7h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.426% 34.43% 00.00% 252 0.00 { 88-77, 55-44, A8s+, JTs, A8o+, JTo }
Hand 1: 65.574% 65.57% 00.00% 480 0.00 { 33 }
I even gave you some pairs and Tx
Edit: the timelink is wrong, don't know how to remove
this is a more accurate range
board: 2h 7d Ts 7h 7c
Hand 0: 43.26% {99-44, A7s+, JTs, T7s+, A8o+, JTo }
Hand 1: 56.738% { 33 }
I've said in the video that calling with Ax should not be your standard and probably slightly -EV. He cannot assume that I will call with all combos of Ax and I'm more likely to call with better than Ax so the range has to be slightly weighted.
I'm sure no one can figure out that he's got 7% advantage over my range even if we're not weighing the combos differently. It's very reasonable to check more Tx hands on the turn for pot control where you don't think you can get 3 streets of value. Maybe not vs this guy but I'm fairly sure his thought process won't be "He knows I'm a fish because I limped so he must value bet thin on the turn -> he can't have a Tx hand on the river so I can bet 33 for value"
Posted almost 2 years ago
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doc.lemon
1790 posts
Joined 07/2009
How would he or anyone for that matter know my barreling frequency or my actual range?
They play against your perceived range and make assumptions. If his assumption is that you will call A high his value bet is only wrong if you check behind a lot of made hands and/or barrel with A high ott a lot
Posted almost 2 years ago
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blah234
2525 posts
Joined 12/2009
They play against your perceived range and make assumptions. If his assumption is that you will call A high his value bet is only wrong if you check behind a lot of made hands and/or barrel with A high ott a lot
This is true but the way you asked your original question sounded like you are talking about my actual range. I don't imply anything about my actual or perceived range vs this player because I don't know. All I can say is that I have not done anything for villain to have that assumption of me. If I later find out that's his default assumption of unknown players then I can adjust. It's ok to lose pots as long as we can adjust.
You will see that I made a few incorrect assumptions or marginal plays thoughout this video (and in later videos) but I adjusted and used those reads to be more profitable later.
Clearly this is what we want to think like vs a good player but the villain in this hand probably doesn't have "perceived range" in his vocabulary.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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StackHunter
2698 posts
Joined 09/2010
blah234
2525 posts
Joined 12/2009
Lol seems like you didn't notice you had a double belly buster, not a gutshot !
Plus a backdoor FD, it is an easy c-bet now, isn't ?
Yep I miss read the board, should of been a cbet. But it worked out in the end glad I didn't cbet.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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