---

Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by BalugaWhale (Micro/Small Stakes)

did you see my post about this? I'll repost below:

"a river bluff shove would probably be profitable, but it's a lot closer than you make it seem IMO. there's 19 nutted combos and 20 thin value combos (AA/KQ/AQ) that will fold that he can potentially have (assuming we have QT). the bluff has to work 52% of the time, and he folds 51% if he folds all of his thin value hands. Take some nutted combos out because sometimes he checks back A8/K8 on the flop and the smaller river bet skews his range more toward the thin value part of his range, and the bluff becomes profitable, but still he only needs to be calling with AA or KQ like 1/3 of the time for the bluff to be -EV. And this is assuming he doesn't open 87o on the button.

I do understand the concept you are illustrating though, but this particular spot, and the fact that him being on the button adds a lot more 8x hands to his range than if he were in like MP or CO and we're on the BTN, is a lot closer."

agree/disagree?

fair enough, its close, but the idea is still a good one to consider in situations like this.

Andrew

the vid keeps stop-starting every 10 seconds.. anyone know a reason why?

Time Link to 00:12:28

Hey,
Im rewatching your serie right now and I saw something I didnt notice the first time I watched this video.

Table 2: A3
Can you explain you thought for the river shove. I mean, flop bet is standard, turn too imo because this guy can have lots of draws, PPs, etc in his range. But I dont expect him to c/c flop with Qx so imo, his river range has Ax that split with you, missed draws and maybe some weird PP that c/c flop and turn (but he wont call river shove with these PPs imo). So when you shipped river, what did you expect to get value from ? (Ax split, draw and PPs folds! )

Also, even if Qx are in his range, do you expect vilain to call river often enough to justify a river shove?

Would like to have your thought on that Kristy!

didn't you just say earlier that going for 3barrels on Axxr boards is pretty good, since although you might have a ton of air in your perceived range on the flop, by the time you fire 3barrels you get a lot of credit as their hand is face up as an Ace? Why would this be any different other than that they can have sets if the board was dry (and the additional FE we have from being UTG probably counteracts this)?

I think you didnt answer to that Andrew. I have few point about this hands ( 31:03 on table 3 with KJ).


First, Im little lost because you said earlier that running an occasional 3barel bluff on Axxr board is good because of our NAR. But you just said for this hand that 3barelling here is better than on an A82r board. What I understand is that our NAR is better on rainbow board because we rep less bluff/missed draw when we 3barel than on a two tone board. Am I right ???

Also, I dont understand why cbetting this A82tt and shut down on blank/continue on heart is good here. Once he called flop cbet, his range is Ax, FD and maybe some 99-JJ hands ( sets are discounted because he will c/r them a lot on this tt flop). My question is: Do you think Ax are a bigger part of his range than FD here ? If not, I think its better to continue betting on blank (to not let him catch his flush) and shut down on heart. But if Ax are bigger part, I agree with a 3 barel bluff to make him fold Ax. But Im not sure that there is that many Ax in his range.. Dont expect him to call sb vs utg with low/mid Ax..

I would like to have your thought on that because its the second time I watch this video and I want to be sure I understand correctly the NAR concept !

thx

if he could potentially slow play AA/AK/JJ, then by the same logic why can't he have slow played any Jx hand or flush? there a lot more combos of Jx and flushes than the above hands, and a fish is never folding a boat or flush, so why is value raising bad?

I am thinking the same. Fish love to slowplay, and he could probably have tons of Jx hands (if I recall right he coldcalled 64o earlier?) which he will bet/c with on the river. So why is raiseing bad?

(~00:56:36 KQo)

Time Link to 00:13:47

With AK on the button I think we should also be flatting to keep hands that we dominate in the hand. I recall you talking about this in CK1 and think this would be a fabulous application of that concept.

Time Link to 01:07:04

Aren't you being a bit R.O. here? Seems like you thought 4betting AQ was bad until you saw him call which you couldn't have reasonable assumed he would do before he actually did it. Calling a 4b oop is so rare. Wouldn't it be better to flat the 3bet with position and a strong hand there given we know he is possibly steaming and probably bad? Also vs a 22/20/8 3b reg I assume we still flat?

Aren't you being a bit R.O. here? Seems like you thought 4betting AQ was bad until you saw him call which you couldn't have reasonable assumed he would do before he actually did it. Calling a 4b oop is so rare. Wouldn't it be better to flat the 3bet with position and a strong hand there given we know he is possibly steaming and probably bad? Also vs a 22/20/8 3b reg I assume we still flat?

1) I thought 4-betting was bad because I don't think he flats the 4-bet with worse.

2) if he calls our 4-bet with worse, then its good

3) When he flats, I then think it is good (for future reference-- with no reads, preflop was still bad)

4) If 4-bettings not good (no reads), then flatting is definitely better. However, if he's steaming/probably bad, why would that make us NOT want to raise? Seems like it's usually a good idea to raise into steaming bad players with strong hands.

Andrew

Time Link to 00:41:52

77 on K95shd

So u don`t c-bet coz he is folding any worse like lower PP and 5x and maybe calling( 9x TT Kx) or raising (Fds etc) better.
But what if Kristy has TT u are beting for (thin)value vs 89 T9 66/77?
And 22 33 44 betting as a bluff vs better but not good enought pps and 5x?

21.31: This makes me really paranoid. This also makes me want to spew like crazy vs regs.
I see a big contradixtion with 'people aren't bluffing you as much as you think' and what you just said about suicide bluffs working better nowadays. I am not the only one watching this video. So do I need to throw that mantra out of the window? Are people way more bluff happy then before?

01.07.18: I always call with a hand like 99 when a regular raises on the button. Are we planning to 3-bet and fold when we get 4-bet? So are we then bluffing, or are we 3-betting for value?

That kind of confuses me. The same goes for AQ. We 3-bet it in the blinds versus a late opener, but then we get 4-bet. If we fold, was AQ then a bluff. Can a 3-bet for value turn into a bluff?

21.31: This makes me really paranoid. This also makes me want to spew like crazy vs regs.
I see a big contradixtion with 'people aren't bluffing you as much as you think' and what you just said about suicide bluffs working better nowadays. I am not the only one watching this video. So do I need to throw that mantra out of the window? Are people way more bluff happy then before?

people bluff less than you think (still true); regs fold bigger hands now when facing aggression (thats the newer part)

Andrew

EDIT: Not all regs obviously. Pick your spots.

01.07.18: I always call with a hand like 99 when a regular raises on the button. Are we planning to 3-bet and fold when we get 4-bet? So are we then bluffing, or are we 3-betting for value?

That kind of confuses me. The same goes for AQ. We 3-bet it in the blinds versus a late opener, but then we get 4-bet. If we fold, was AQ then a bluff. Can a 3-bet for value turn into a bluff?

If they 4-bet a lot, then we'd 3-bet for value (and not fold to a 4-bet, usually shoving).

If they don't 4-bet a lot, OR call with a wide range of hands, we prob shouldn't 3-bet.

Andrew

Today I played a session where a 30/20 was on my right, two seats away. He raised a couple of times, and I 3-betted him. He stacked me once where he had AK and called my 3-bet OOP and we both flopped a K.

Now I 3-betted him again and he folded. Right after that hand, he opens again and I have JJ. He 4-betted small I raised and we got it in. He had AA. Is that what I could consider a cooler with the dynamic between us?