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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by BalugaWhale (Micro/Small Stakes)

Hands like ATo/ A9 etc are going to fold on the turn or river too. I would bet three streets here, if the turn and river are blanks. Because he never can have something like AJ/AQ/AK/JJ/22/AA, so the best hand in his range is ATo i think.. Villain could have picked up equity on the turn also, which makes it better for us to fire the turn and the river. If we see vilain calling with ATo on the river, we know enough and are prepared to valuebet three streets with TPGK+ next time

I'm probably never going to have any trouble v-betting 3 streets with TPGK at any time.

The only question is whether or not he mucks Ax on turn or river. That seems to be the crux of my debate. Obv if he does, fire away, and if he doesn't, then don't.

Andrew

Baluga what games are you playing in vegas? you talk about it in the ep ..

What games could someone beating 100nl beat in vegas?

ty sorry for the derail.

alsoooo why do we have to shove the ak hand on the turn you didn't answer and im still trying to figure it out maybe im dumb.

3bet.

awesome first video. really looking forward to this series, please do more than 4 episodes (add hand history/theory discussion if there's not enough live play footage)

last hand QQ, before bet/3betting flop ai we need to consider what opponent will do with his bluffs (if we think he has any) on the turn if we bet/call flop. if hes always jamming turn with them it is much better to let him do so rather than 3b flop.

Time Link to 00:54:45

I'd like to talk about the 5-betting aspect of this pre-flop line with 44. I think it's pretty interesting.

I'm going to write up all the math for everyone's reference.

Let's say villain will 4-bet/call with JJ+/AK.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.722% 32.49% 00.24% 133499112 971460.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 67.278% 67.04% 00.24% 275510928 971460.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

So, we have 33% equity vs his calling range. Assuming that we 3-bet to ~13 and he 4-bets to 25 there will be about 28 in the pot, and we're shoving 87. When called there will be about 200 in the pot.

discount from equity = 200*.33 = 66

actual cost of shove = 87-66 = 21

So, really we are risking 21 to win 28 and our FE required is:

21/(21+28) = 43%

So, if villain is folding any more than 43% of the time then this is a +EV shove. If villain plays close to this number, he actually has a balanced 4-betting range.

Villains calling range:
JJ+,AK = 40 combos

If we think villain is most likely to take something like A9s-A2s and use that as a 4-bet bluff - well that's only equal to 30 combos to start with. So, even if he bluffed those 100% of the time, we are right at break even . Sure, we can throw in some other combos like KJo, 87s, or whatever. That comes up to about 80 combos, so now we need him to be bluffing those at about 50% of the time as a minimum. I think that is a bit optimistic readless. I think what is more likely to happen is we can estimate that at something like a 20% bluffing frequency. This means his range has 16 4-bet/folds and 40 4-bet/calls. Our shove would be -EV in that spot.

The other unfortunate thing is that we need him to start bluffing with his bluff hands a majority of the time, or he just gets closer and closer to that balanced range of 43% 4-bet/folds. The closer he gets to that, the more balanced he plays, and the tougher it becomes to beat him in this 3-bet/4-bet/5-bet game. So, if by 3-betting him a little bit more, we make him adjust a little bit more, we actually make him play in a way that becomes more difficult to beat - unless, of course, we know that he is going to spaz out THIS TIME and in which case he is back out of balance and we can 3-bet/5-bet bluff (which definitely can happen).

Edit: I like this line a lot better if we were in a blind steal situation. This mean his range that is "bluffable" is wider, and he's more likely to bluff it.

the game referenced here was 5/10 nl at the venetian, and the guy who cbet the KQ4ccc flop was CR pro nicolak.

imo if you were ok with the stakes (i.e. you don't freak out cause thousands are in play), the skill set to beat 100nl online would probably be sufficient to be +EV in 5/10.

Baluga what games are you playing in vegas? you talk about it in the ep ..

What games could someone beating 100nl beat in vegas?

ty sorry for the derail.

alsoooo why do we have to shove the ak hand on the turn you didn't answer and im still trying to figure it out maybe im dumb.

3bet.

its not that we have to shove the turn, its that if we bet the flop, it has to be with the intention of shoving the turn (i.e. we don't expect him to ever fold a pair on the flop, so betting flop and then giving up is pretty bad)
Andrew

its not that we have to shove the turn, its that if we bet the flop, it has to be with the intention of shoving the turn (i.e. we don't expect him to ever fold a pair on the flop, so betting flop and then giving up is pretty bad)
Andrew

I understand but I dont think he will fold an overpair ever here. Am I wrong ? even more at lower than 100NL..is there a better line to take with AK in this 3bet pot ?

I understand but I dont think he will fold an overpair ever here. Am I wrong ? even more at lower than 100NL..is there a better line to take with AK in this 3bet pot ?

I don't think this guy will.

if you dont think he'll fold an overpair ever, then just check the flop.

Andrew

Time Link to 00:04:46

Hey A and K glad you're back.

about the min open on the btn against regs, and pretty much not do anything post flop.

isn't it kinda exploitable? I mean minraise pre, and pretty much ck/f post, after a couple of times doing this, I would asume they pick up on it. Or would you still cbet dry boards and such?

Is kristy even a member on DC? lol

Is kristy even a member on DC? lol

yes shes just very busy getting married on saturday!
Andrew

Hey A and K glad you're back.

about the min open on the btn against regs, and pretty much not do anything post flop.

isn't it kinda exploitable? I mean minraise pre, and pretty much ck/f post, after a couple of times doing this, I would asume they pick up on it. Or would you still cbet dry boards and such?

anything they can do, we can change, etc etc.

usually my advice is for the way the games are now. stuff changes.

Andrew

thank to threads13 for your post about that 44 in Sb spot and frequency we need vilain to 4bet/fold to make that shove EV+.

Is that mean that I can 3bet/fold my 44 in Sb if I think Vilain is not "4bet bluffing" enought ? (micro/small stakes players do not balance their 4bet ranges well, and have way more value than bluff in it.) Or is it really bad to 3bet/fold (turning a value hand into a bluff) and I shouldn't be 3betting at all (flatting) ?