Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

villain is 22/18, with AggFactor of 1.8 and aggFrequency of 27 over 283 hands. He must be betting for value on the river, so is this a call? Am I behind enough that this is a fold? Is he ever betting here with a pair of queens? My normal inclination is to shove here, but looking back I can't see what he's calling with that I beat.

Thanks!

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1247094
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $114.30
Hero (UTG): $155.10
CO: $100.00
BTN: $135.15
SB: $64.25

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with 8 8
Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, BTN raises to $9, 1 fold, BB calls $8, Hero calls $5.50

Flop: ($27.50) 4 8 Q (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($27.50) 4 (3 players)
BB bets $15, Hero calls $15, BTN folds

River: ($57.50) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $38, ?????

seriously how can you even be thinking about folding or just calling ?

What´s his range for coldcalling pre? I´d assume something like JJ-99, AQ, KQs, sometimes QQ-AA. Against this range you´re way ahead, you´re only beat by QQ but he will 4bet this with a % > 0, so I´d give him 1-2 combos of that. compaired to 15-20 combos of AA,KK, AQ and KQ. Not shoving this river is criminal!

Thank you for the feeback. I guess I'm being influenced by the results. (quad 4s)

Thank you for the feeback. I guess I'm being influenced by the results. (quad 4s)

I don't know. Is shoving that clear? Villain certainly isn't particularly passive preflop. If villain has a reasonable squeeze or 4bet%, then you have pretty much ruled out JJ+. If he won't call a shove with less than top pair, he has to call a 3bet OOP with 45s or A4s to have hands we beat. He has a 4% flatting percentage, so I'd imagine that he's only flatting non-premium pairs.

I don't think it's a fold (especially as we only need 28% to call) , but I'm not convinced that the shove is correct if we can rule AA-KK from his range.

I don't think it's a fold (especially as we only need 28% to call) , but I'm not convinced that the shove is correct if we can rule AA-KK from his range.

First of all there´s still a good chance villain will call a shove with AQ. But why can we roll out AA-KK? You can´t see this from stats like sqz or 4b, because this is a total different spot.

Just dont overthink situation where the decidion is as clear as it can be.

First of all there´s still a good chance villain will call a shove with AQ. But why can we roll out AA-KK? You can´t see this from stats like sqz or 4b, because this is a total different spot.

You can get tendencies from those stats. Does he play the 3bet/4bet/5bet game, or does he flat with monster?

What info do we have?

The board is Qc8c4d4h2d and a fairly passive villain flatted OOP preflop, flop checked through, and started betting on the turn + river. His stats are 22/18, which means that flatting OOP is pretty non-standard for him. I would expect his 3bet% to be pretty high. In that case, hands like QQ+ are probably 4betting, AQ is likely folding preflop and villain's range preflop is probably 22-TT or something. Against that range, what will call the shove that we beat?

OTOH, if he doesn't 3bet/4bet, the 4% calling could be JJ+,AK, AQs or something, in which case, the argument above doesn't apply, and we expect him to call a shove with 12 combos of overpairs in addition to the 3 combos of QQ that beat us, knowing that 44 isn't in his range.

Tell me if I'm overthinking, but it seems to me that villain played the hand face-up, his range preflop is 22-TT, 22 doesn't bet the turn, we have 88 so he can't have it, and that the only hand that is calling the shove is 44.

Tell me if I'm overthinking, but it seems to me that villain played the hand face-up, his range preflop is 22-TT, 22 doesn't bet the turn, we have 88 so he can't have it, and that the only hand that is calling the shove is 44.

First I don´t think coldacalling a 3bet there in general isn´t that great of a play, except you have some reads, dynamics etc.. But to assume his coldcallingrange oop is mostly 22-TT you have to assume that villain is really really really horrible! And I wouldn´t assume this of someone playing 22/18 except I have some reads.
Like I said in my first post I think a preflop range of 99-JJ, AQ, KQs and occasionally a slowplayed premium is way more realistic for villain to have. And against this range it´s a super easy shove on the river because villain has at most 3 combos that have us beat but a lot TP+ combos that are worse than our hand and might call.

Man, don't be results oriented, ship it holla on the river and NH WP, nothing more to add ;p

Board: 4d 8c Qc 4h 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 90.000% 90.00% 00.00% 27 0.00 { 8d8s }
Hand 1: 10.000% 10.00% 00.00% 3 0.00 { QQ+, AQs, KQs, AQo }

Me agrees, btw up until what amount do can we call a 3bet pre? Cuz I tend to fold 99- to a 3bet.

Me agrees, btw up until what amount do can we call a 3bet pre? Cuz I tend to fold 99- to a 3bet.

In general calling a 3bet oop with a small-medium PP isn´t a great a idea, except the 3bet is really small or you´re deep. But here´s a coldcaller so you can definitely call preflop.

I was calling here because of the coldcaller. I'm not normally calling a 3b oop heads up.

This is easily a shove 100% of the time vs. the nittiest player on planet earth.

This is easily a shove 100% of the time vs. the nittiest player on planet earth.

I'm sorry. What is his 3bet flatting range OOP? If he's got any sense he's 4betting QQ+ to avoid a three way pot and folding AQ preflop due to the risk of being up against AK. But he might try set mining with small pairs. That's consistent with flatting 4% if he 3bets/4bets >4%.

If so his range on the flop is mostly small pairs. The only hands in that range that can call a shove are 44 and 22, but a passive player probably doesn't bet 22 on the turn OOP or threeway.

It's certainly not a fold, but in the scenario I suggest, there is no combo in his range that calls that we beat. Someone above is suggesting he expects to be getting value from KQ. I think that's funny.

I'm sorry. What is his 3bet flatting range OOP? If he's got any sense he's 4betting QQ+ to avoid a three way pot and folding AQ preflop due to the risk of being up against AK. But he might try set mining with small pairs. That's consistent with flatting 4% if he 3bets/4bets >4%.

If so his range on the flop is mostly small pairs. The only hands in that range that can call a shove are 44 and 22, but a passive player probably doesn't bet 22 on the turn OOP or threeway.

It's certainly not a fold, but in the scenario I suggest, there is no combo in his range that calls that we beat. Someone above is suggesting he expects to be getting value from KQ. I think that's funny.

What? If he has any sense he's calling QQ+ to enter a three way pot, considering SSNL players usually don't 3bet UTG raises as a bluff and SNL players rarely cold 4bet bluff, then they never cold 4bet bluff a 3bet against an UTG raise ever. QQ is a board mining hand here at best, because there's no way they are 5betting with AK for "value" unless they're dense. I think I'd flat my entire range here as a standard, it looks way fisher to regulars then a 4bet (and this thread is kind of my case in point) Praying you pick up 14.5bb with QQ here by turning it into a bluff is not what you want your best case scenario to be IMO.