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Villain 25/19 3 Bet BB vs Steal 8% (3 Bet in general 6%) Fold to 4bet 25% (sample 8). Cbet 3 Bet pot 70% - 2k hands datamined - no reads yet, played him the first time.

I have a question about this spot, since it comes up so often. I am not really sure whats my best play here.

Pre I think it is also fine to 4bet/call, although it is kinda boarderline without any further knowledge about the player I would say. He is kinda right in the middle statswise I would say. Sure he only folds to a 4bet 25%, which means he is capable of 5bet shipping a lil lighter, but the sample of that is only 8.

So I decided to call to play postflop. I hit a pretty much great flop. I decided to take the careful option and just call. You could argue for minraising to induce, but without any reads, thats probably not as good of an option. Turn he checks and I think about betting. but the same reasoning applies here as I said before. Unless I know he is capable of C/R AI with AK or so it is not as great of a play, since there is no value in 3 streets against anyhting worse probably. Sure you could argue to bet to protect your EQ, but if he has overs he is only drawing for 15% EQ.

River is a great card for him to bluff, but also a card that hits his perceived range pretty good. I guess now it is just a guessing game vs unknown.

I would appreciate comments very much. This probably shouldnt be such a tough spot, but right now it is kinda confusing to me.

thanks a lot.

Full Tilt Poker $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1005440
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $209.90
SB: $212.00
BB: $200.00
UTG: $324.60
CO: $224.15

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with T T
2 folds, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, BB raises to $18, Hero calls $13

Flop: ($37.00) 2 9 4 (2 players)
BB bets $22.00, Hero calls $22

Turn: ($81.00) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($81.00) K (2 players)
BB bets $62.00

I would just bet the turn. It's possible he has something like 98 or 54 that you can get value from. I also expect him to just bet all overpairs himself nearly always.
As played, it's a really tough spot. I would probably just look at his location and his screenname and do whatever I felt like

I would just bet the turn. It's possible he has something like 98 or 54 that you can get value from. I also expect him to just bet all overpairs himself nearly always.
As played, it's a really tough spot. I would probably just look at his location and his screenname and do whatever I felt like

yeah I was thinking betting turn is good.
if you new to this player im sure his 3bet is really polar JJ+ AQs AK for value and can be loads of 9x (Q9 K9 A9 ect) hands in his range. I don't know if people instant 3bet KQo when they dont know villian.

I usually just call river because i want to see if he bets this size/river with AK/KQ or with some random bluff. can give lots of info and tell you what hands he's 3betting anyway. Dont know if this is good enough reason. WEll also the fact is sometimes you are going to be good.

b/f the turn and avoid headache imo. I dont really like to generalize at poker but when a reggy Villain cbet and check back on a low flop in a 3bet spot, it usually means weaknesses OR he is trapping you and will let you know by a turn raise.

B/f? I was thinking b/c. I don't have a good idea of what villain would c/r the turn with, but I think his range probably includes just as many flush draws as hands that beat you.

Its a fold I think even though I don't like to. His 3betting range is pretty strong, i think 6% has TT in bad shape. Couple of Ax hands missed the flop and two of them hit the river.

What's your stats? That might change things a bit because of his perception of your range might determine his post flop play, e.g., the turn check. I don't expect many people checking the turn with a better pair here given that the dry flop texture pretty much determines you have a pair and the board is great for any pair. That might lead to a river bluff, but probablly not often enough.

I bet the turn, makes life easier and we can define villains hand a bit more depending on his action. I would rather check back A9 where we can pair up and we can get his stack, but this is not going to happen that often as there is only 2 aces in the deck for this scenario to come through, so i would bet A9 as well. If we were to call it off, it would need to be with history to know that he can be doing this light, without that he is never shoving worse than us.

Given that he bets the river with AJ, AQ, AK, the occasional KK, AA (rare to get here with those though) it's a call. We only need to be good 43% of the time and with that range (18 vs 32 combinations) we are good a solid 64% of the time. He would need to not bluff with AJ, AQ 67% of the time for this to not be a profitable call. Thoughts?

Edit: forgot to remove combos because of the K on the board, so it's even less probable that beats us (about 13-14 vs 32 combos) here.

for all of you who advocate betting the turn, are you calling a chshove and why?

I would bet/fold $50 on the turn. There is value vs worse pairs and just taking the pot down now.

Bet call is bad because there is no way he is semibluffing overs or a flush draw often enough given the odds we will get. Flush draws are making up a small part of his range and there is a good chance he barrels them alot of the time anyway. If we think he is capable of spazzing with two overs raise/calling flop vs his cbet is a better line.

As played river is super close - I prob fold though.

I don´t like B/F turn at all. We are getting 3:1 on the call, so he would almost have to bluff or semibluff 0% of the time. I just don´t think that is realistic on that level. I like B/C better.

I don´t like B/F turn at all. We are getting 3:1 on the call, so he would almost have to bluff or semibluff 0% of the time. I just don´t think that is realistic on that level. I like B/C better.

less then 25% of the time. reasonable i think.

less then 25% of the time. reasonable i think.

I agree