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Poker Stars $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 909893
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BB: $237.25
UTG: $132.40
CO: $203.00
Hero (BTN): $200.00
SB: $537.60

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with K K
UTG calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $9, 1 fold, BB calls $7, UTG calls $7

Flop: ($28.00) 2 3 7 (3 players)
BB bets $20.00, UTG folds, Hero calls $20

Turn: ($68.00) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $42.00, Hero ?

Villain: 24/19/1,9/28 - 3,2k hands

Donk: 15%
Agg in % Flop/Turn/River: 40%/25%/26%

UTG was a 46/9-fish

The thing is that REGs are playing imo pretty honestly when there is a fish involved.
So,
I think his donkrange is (almost) always for Value.
What you think is the worst hand that he would donk here for Value/Protection?
99, TT?

Is this realistic:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,188 games 0.001 secs 1,188,000 games/sec

Board: 7h 2c 3d 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.152% 65.15% 00.00% 774 0.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 34.848% 34.85% 00.00% 414 0.00 { JJ-99, 77, 33-22 }


The problem is that if my Turnbetrange for him is only a litte bit too optimistic, planning a calldown can end -ev b/c of very likely reverseImplieds on the river (facing there another big bet)


Call Turn - fold River seems to be here burningmoney (after already betted the turn, I expect him to follow through very often on the river)
Call Flop should be anyways good b/c smething like 88-JJ will check often the turn or bet obv. smaller...

It feels to me like an "ok-fold" on the turn.
After looking at the numbers, I would need about 41,7% EQ. vs. his Betting_Turn+Jam_Range on the river, when I plan on the turn to calldown + assume that he will (almost) always jam the river when I call on the turn - could be more than close imo...

But what are your thoughts on this?

Are you certain villain doesn't 3bet JJ/TT here?

That said, I'd call turn and evaluate river, he's probably putting you on a weak range considering you're on the button and you're isolating a fish, so his range for barreling can be wider than what you're giving him credit for (any 7, A5, A4, overs and back door flushes etc.)

What you think is the worst hand that he would donk here for Value/Protection?99, TT?

88s, 99s, TTs and some JJs sometimes to keep the fish in the pot

That said, I'd call turn and evaluate river

Lets say you call the turn and Villain is betting $100 into a $152 pot size. Whats your plan on a brick river? We are facing the same problematic imo

88s, 99s, TTs and some JJs sometimes to keep the fish in the pot



Lets say you call the turn and Villain is betting $100 into a $152 pot size. Whats your plan on a brick river? We are facing the same problematic imo

Depends on the reg and the river card, but I'd lean towards calling because he should be betting more 1 pair hands than sets on the river if he's got JJ/TT in his range. After isolating a fish on the button, I'm just not folding the top end of my range after considering how bad my image is here with out a really damn good reason.

I have been thinking about this hand for a while and I think we should call the turn. They are many worst hands that he can 2nd barrels with on such a dry board.

given how much a donk UTG is i think he is calling pretty wide pre knowing the donk will come along, and given his actions i think he has something pretty strong. i would fold. and i think you played it fine.

Do you have anything on his bet sizing?

I'd call and fold the river most likely, depending on the answer to my question.

If you were Villain with 99s, TTs or JJs, how would you play it? I bet the same way as Villain did.

Do you have anything on his bet sizing?

I'd call and fold the river most likely, depending on the answer to my question.

Unfortunatelly I had no notes on his bettingpatterns and sizes.


@1BYONE:
Idk,
another val.bet on the turn with 99-TT seems imo to me inredible close.
Probably I would try to check it down vs. 88 and 7x-hands....

This hand and situation are stucked in my head really. That would be sweet if we can have the opinion of a DC coach because both arguments make sense imo.

at 200NL I would assume most regs will not 3 bet 88-TT in this situation. They will not 3 bet with JJ some of the time.

With 88-JJ, Villan will not value bet all 3 streets. We have position here so we get to figure out the strength of villan's hand on the river.

I would call this turn bet and fold to a river barrel under those assumptions. If villan checks river, we should make a gay small value bet on the river to get called by those hands.

Until we have reads I think my assumptions is true for most regs at 200NL.

I would not 3bet 88, maybe sometimes 99, almost always TT, and definitely JJ. And I'm not 24/19.

This is a way ahead/way behind spot. He's either got a set, slowplayed AA, 88/99, or air.


His bet leaves $130 into $152. If he makes it cheap on the river, it might be worth calling to see what it is. If he has a set, he probably should've made the turn like $50 so his river shove is less, but that doesn't mean he thought of that.

I would not 3bet 88, maybe sometimes 99, almost always TT, and definitely JJ. And I'm not 24/19.

This is a way ahead/way behind spot. He's either got a set, slowplayed AA, 88/99, or air.


His bet leaves $130 into $152. If he makes it cheap on the river, it might be worth calling to see what it is. If he has a set, he probably should've made the turn like $50 so his river shove is less, but that doesn't mean he thought of that.

Vs. your assumed range, it is -ev to calldown like a showed already.
@his betsize: hm,
I mean he also will come with his choosen betsize ALL In to on the river -> hence I would actually not discount setcombos b/c of his betsize


@bla234: The problem with Call Turn - Fold River is my huge worry here that he would not val.bet 99-TT (sometimes JJ) on the turn what seems tbh reasonable to me b/c

- my callingrange on the flop 3-way is perceived also strong
- I will not call the turn with 7x, 88-99 (should I have called on the flop, what is more than close imo in this spot)

edit: @Razor:

Sry,
just reralized that I still did not show already that a calldown is bad.
But I have showed that you need about 41,7% EQ on the turn to call Turn+River, when we assume that he will jam the river 100% (maybe he will not, but imo most of the time here)

vs. something like this,
99-77,33-22 ->you would have 43%, but

1.) imo very questionable if he bets with 88/99 the turn
2.) should not expect him to jam with 88/99 the river...

I think you're over weighting villain's range towards value, there's no reason A5, A4, 54 isn't in villain's range or he's not capable of barreling a BDFD. I doubt his image of your flop calling range is even that strong, because you isolated the fish on the button and only called after the fish folded vs. a lead.

If you're going to just fold your over pair to any double barrel here, you seriously need to just raise the flop so you can stack 88+.

I think you're over weighting villain's range towards value, there's no reason A5, A4, 54 isn't in villain's range or he's not capable of barreling a BDFD. I doubt his image of your flop calling range is even that strong, because you isolated the fish on the button and only called after the fish folded vs. a lead.

If you're going to just fold your over pair to any double barrel here, you seriously need to just raise the flop so you can stack 88+.

this hands I never ever expect to R/Broke vs. me, when I raise here., without reads.

A4s/A5s could be possible sometimes, 45s I expect him to fold in this spot pre.