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Full Tilt Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 900251
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BB: $147.10
UTG: $90.35
Hero (CO): $100.00
BTN: $105.00
SB: $98.10

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with T T
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, SB raises to $10, 1 fold, Hero calls $7

Flop: ($21.00) 5 3 4 (2 players)
SB bets $12.00, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($45.00) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($45.00) 3 (2 players)
SB bets $26.00, Hero

Villain is 26/19 with a 3bet% of 8% in this spot (SB vs. steal). His cbet% is 62 in 3bet pots.

What are your thoughts on the flop? I thought about raising small to maybe induce a 3bet from AQ or AK that has a gutter and overs.

Turn check back seems fine as I'm probably not getting a whole lot of value from worse as I don't think he'll have lower pp's that often.

His bet sizing on the river really seems like it's for value and I don't see him bluff here that much. Fold or call?

Looks like Villain is VB a PP too on the river. I dont fold the river because he can bet a lot with lower PPs, AK or air.

Doubt villain is value betting AK on the river instead of barreling the turn considering he's got 20% equity and a scare card to fire on, but on the other hand this is the perfect spot for villain to bet for value considering his range is skewed towards either semi-bluffing the Ace or bluffing the Q so I think you're way ahead of his range given it's really irrational for him to check a value hand on that turn for any reason on a flop you're unlikely to be floating ever.

I'd probably call here, even if you lose the note you take is going to be worth a lot more because you can figure out his turn and river tendencies here. This hand is pretty queer on his part, honestly.

Also, bet turn IMO, a lot of guys wont 2barrel their pot equity on wheel boards in 3bet pots because they have no folding equity based on their weak perceived range on that board texture and too many villains auto-check behind with showdown value in 3bet pots so you're just giving him a 7 to 10 out free roll on you for nothing. There's actually a fuck ton of value there in betting FWIW, 1/3rd pot may even get him to draw on you or spazz shove.

I agree raise flop, call shove is probably your best line tho' from the start.

8% is a pretty strong range - especially on a Q turn if villain is 3-betting KQo and AQo preflop. This makes this a good spot for him to not vb the turn with the bottom of his value range (TT-Q9s) and check some hands with very little pot equity. Remember that your perceived range for calling the flop is a weak marginal made hand.

The value of betting the turn with TT is minimal. You are far ahead or far behind. That said I don't mind betting something like 15. Betting bigger is burning money.

The river is against a 8%range a pretty tough spot. I would prolly call and take a note. Mostly because SSNL and MSNL players have bet sizing tells in this spot.

Raising the flop and sticking it in is an alternative if villain has reason to think that you will be bluff raising this flop a lot. I would prefer to raise/call with hands like 66, 77. They have the same FE versus villain's bluff range but much more equity versus villain's value range.

4b/call pre. TT is not strong enough to slowplay.

4b/call pre. TT is not strong enough to slowplay.

Why would you ever 4bet/call TT vs. an 8% range and isolate yourself vs his 5bet range when you could call pre-flop and keep the bottom of his range in post-flop? We're not ahead of anything in his 5bet range except AK, and we're completely disregarding our positional advantage by 4betting.

Seriously, this line is arguable OOP and definitely wrong IP without history, and even vs. his imaginary 5bet bluff range we're probably only flipping.

@improva, why would villain slow down with the bottom of his value range when the board texture strongly indicates he's either semi-bluffing or bluffing respectively the wheel draw or the over card? Checking any Q there seems criminal, when it'd be such an awesome spot to overbet for value IMO.

Bet/fold turn as semibluff to possibly get some hands in his range to fold.
If he calls he will more than likely check back to you on river to which you check as well and take notes.

As played though, I would call/take notes since there are still some a good deal of hands in his range you might be ahead of 99-88-77, 1:2.31 you aren't getting terrible odds, and the notes you can get could give you future insight into what he might be holding with lines like that.

Why would you ever 4bet/call TT vs. an 8% range and isolate yourself vs his 5bet range when you could call pre-flop and keep the bottom of his range in post-flop? We're not ahead of anything in his 5bet range except AK, and we're completely disregarding our positional advantage by 4betting.

Seriously, this line is arguable OOP and definitely wrong IP without history, and even vs. his imaginary 5bet bluff range we're probably only flipping.

This is so wrong. Think about how for example AQ/KQ play vs TT postflop, and how it plays preflop vs a 4bet (both vs TT and your whole range).

This is so wrong. Think about how for example AQ/KQ play vs TT postflop, and how it plays preflop vs a 4bet (both vs TT and your whole range).

That could make up for an argument to 4bet - but how often are we good enough to call a 5bet-shove?! StoxEV tells me that he has to 5bet-shove with 5% of his range (=62.5% of his 3betting-range), how realistic is that? Unless we have some real crazy 4bet-dynamic of course ...

It might be marginally bad to get it in preflop against some (tight) ranges, but what you lose in that scenario will be gained (and then some) by him just giving up the pot preflop. And people are capable of 5bet bluffing smaller pairs or suited aces and stuff.

[...] what you lose in that scenario will be gained (and then some) by him just giving up the pot preflop.

Hehe - that´s already included in the calculation. The only pro I can see is that we gain some metagame dynamic we can use to our advantage in the following in case we get it in, not sure if that weighs out the expected loss though ...

Meh, I played a little with StoxEV and ranges, it´s actually pretty damn close. If we expect him to raise his TOP-x% then it´s +EV to 4bet/fold (!) up to a 5bet% of roughly 3.5%, above of that it´s better to 4bet/call. If he has a polarized range, say AK, QQ+, 22-55 it´s again better to 4bet/fold ...

This is so wrong. Think about how for example AQ/KQ play vs TT postflop, and how it plays preflop vs a 4bet (both vs TT and your whole range).

Villain is 3betting 8%, if villain is only 3betting -> 5betting 3% (AK, JJ+) then he can 3bet 7% before his range is exploitable to 4bets. Considering we're 1% above the 7% margin, a 4bet has FE but a 4bet/call with TT does not have enough PE to call vs. his 5bet range unless you purposely commit yourself pre-flop with your 4bet size.

Yeah, we might have a little fold equity, we might be able to fold out AQ, KQ and we might stack 22 if he 5bet bluffs pockets when the stars align and the heavens open, but just because the 4bet is +EV doesn't mean the 4bet/call is +EV (it's definitely -EV at SSNL) so why should we bother to 4bet/call TT over 4bet/fold any other hand and take a definitely +EV call in position vs. 2 over cards and the bottom of his range?

Like, you haven't provided 1 argument for why calling is bad, the math is against you for 4bet/calling and 4betting is +EV with any hand you do it with, so I'd like to hear some justification past "this is so wrong" when you're basically turning TT into 22 here vs. villain with no history. I'm not arguing 4bet/calling with TT isn't +EV vs. villain's range, but it's definitely not EV optimal for your range.

With an 8% range it is really hard to rep a lot of bluffs postflop. Especially if villain is not c-betting his whole range; which seems reasonable on the given board texture. On Q the story is a little different since I expect villain to bet backdoor spades 100% on the flop.

The argument for 4-bet / calling with TT is that villain will be able to balance c-bet and barrel ranges against you. With 8% it is not hard for him to own you postflop. That is not possible preflop. The models you create in StoxEv allows you to play TT perfect postflop. That is just not reality.

And there is no argument for calling with TT preflop oop - unless villain is really bad postflop - or is 3-betting a lot wider or a lot less than 8%.

So you're completely disregarding your median value range and your position with a Top 5% hand in favor of taking a barely +EV 4bet and a definitely -EV 4bet call because you're uncertain whether or not you can play well vs. a balanced opponent? If TT isn't good enough to call with, what's the worst hand you will call with? If TT isn't good enough to call with vs. 8%, at what % is it good enough to call with?

Completely disregarding the showdown value of TT in position in favor of turning it into 22 by essentially 4bet/committing vs a 100% 5bet value range is a pretty hard pill to swallow. I can see the merit of 4bet/calling if the villain is capable of 5bet bluffing anything, but given this villain that means TT is just a fold here.

So you're completely disregarding your median value range and your position with a Top 5% hand in favor of taking a barely +EV 4bet and a definitely -EV 4bet call because you're uncertain whether or not you can play well vs. a balanced opponent? If TT isn't good enough to call with, what's the worst hand you will call with? If TT isn't good enough to call with vs. 8%, at what % is it good enough to call with?

Completely disregarding the showdown value of TT in position in favor of turning it into 22 by essentially 4bet/committing vs a 100% 5bet value range is a pretty hard pill to swallow. I can see the merit of 4bet/calling if the villain is capable of 5bet bluffing anything, but given this villain that means TT is just a fold here.

With some reads calling IP is not a problem at all. But until you have reads it is likely more +EV for you to 4-bet and protect you equity.