Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Hey guys

Villain stats are here. Villain is a solid reg met at 50NL and played him sometimes at 100NL. Decent samples on him. I am really tempted to VB river from his PPs. Can I thin VB the river or not? If so how much? If not, why?

I fold preflop, bet the flop, ch-raise the turn, and probably go allin on the river, but its close


oh shit, there is no HH

I fold preflop, bet the flop, ch-raise the turn, and probably go allin on the river, but its close

What a donkey line, you have to raise pf!, but what are you check raising the turn for? We should be trying to see a showdown here.

Even without the HH, I can say that it is a bit too thin.
If you have never bet 1/3 OTR, maybe you can try it to him. He might get curious to that size the first time you do it, and once you have established the dynamic, you can bluff him with the same amount.

Sorry guys

Villain stats are here + see OP above

Thin VB from PP and missed FD?

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 890768
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $139.75
SB: $100.00
BB: $160.05
UTG: $263.60
Hero (CO): $105.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with T Q
1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, SB calls $3, 1 fold

Flop: ($8.00) Q 6 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, SB calls $5

Turn: ($18.00) 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $10, SB calls $10

River: ($38.00) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ?

You can answer your own question by thinking about the following: What range do you expect villain to call with in the SB vs your CO open?

only better Q in his range is probably QJs.
I think he will 3bet AQ and KQ most of the time, esp from the SB.
67s has us beat now, 77 also.

if we bet we might get called by 88/99 (TT sometimes if he doesnt 3bet it), 78cc (if he doesn't raise the flop, which I expect him to do a lot) and thats basically it.

I think I would just check behind, cause the range he has us beat with seems more likely to call the river than 88/99 which isn't all too many combos and will not call always.

You can answer your own question by thinking about the following: What range do you expect villain to call with in the SB vs your CO open?

He would have 3bet wAQ pre imo There is some QK, QJ,Qx and PPs 77 to TTs (JJs sometimes too) and some missed combo FD.

If there was no fishy BigB behind, he would in fact 3bet from SB most of the time KQ/AQ.

So,
I think this is a decent spot for a 3barellbluff with PotEQ-hands (FDs,75,86s...) -> hence, you can/should val.bet here also thinnly.

I think this is a thin val.bet, but a good one. (when you bluff here enough combos, Vaillain should call in a high freq. 88-TT).

btw.,
it is very questionable if SB flats pre in the SB 76s -> imo not a good flat...

Given your preflop range, his line and the drawy nature of the board you can expect to only be behind the AQ, KQ, and sets of 7's. Given that he will raise AQ and KQ some of the time preflop and raise or lead them some of the time post flop they can be discounted. Also, If he rivered a set he would lead some of the time. But, even if he gets here with all the AW,KQ and 77-JJ you are 46% here on the river so a value bet is in order.

Your bet should be sized to get calls from Qx, 88-JJ hands so something around 1/3-1/2 pot should do the trick.

Given your preflop range, his line and the drawy nature of the board you can expect to only be behind the AQ, KQ, and sets of 7's. Given that he will raise AQ and KQ some of the time preflop and raise or lead them some of the time post flop they can be discounted. Also, If he rivered a set he would lead some of the time. But, even if he gets here with all the AW,KQ and 77-JJ you are 46% here on the river so a value bet is in order.

Your bet should be sized to get calls from Qx, 88-JJ hands so something around 1/3-1/2 pot should do the trick.

So you would size your bluffrange in this spot also 1/3-1/2-PS?

Imo bet here 2/3-4/3-PS, like you would do it probably with your bluffcombos here.

So you would size your bluffrange in this spot also 1/3-1/2-PS?

Imo bet here 2/3-4/3-PS, like you would do it probably with your bluffcombos here.

I don't think I'm bluffing here without a read that villain is folding his medium strength hands (88-JJ & some Q's)in this spot. IMO he's very unlikely to fold a Q and never 77 and those combos alone are around 1/2 his range. So, unless I feel he's almost always folding 88-JJ I don't feel a river bluff is +EV. Also, the flush draws both missed and turn/river mostly bricked which may increase his call frequency.

Note:I agree that villain should fold those PP to my small bet b/c I'm never bluffing with that size BUT they don't.

I think this is a thin val.bet, but a good one. (when you bluff here enough combos, Vaillain should call in a high freq. 88-TT).

it is very questionable if SB flats pre in the SB 76s -> imo not a good flat...

76s: Depends on how wide CO is opening,how often he is c-betting, how SB thinks CO is constructing his c-bet range and who is in the BB. If CO is polarized on a lot of flops it is a very easy call.

If you check-back QT vs a good player you cannot barrel off here in the future as a bluff. He will write a note that says: Does not VB river thin when all draws missed. That makes a turn call with A-high standard play. Should you think about this at 100nl when you are the preflop raiser? Not at all.

What you should think about is the value of seeing that your opponent called two streets with say 88 or a FD played passively.

=>

You no longer have to bluff on turn bricks and you can sometimes decide to vb the turn thin, sometimes check back and bluff catch/vb river. You can use your position and are not stuck with first level aggression.

I think you're being way too generous about how lightly he's 3betting for value and willing to call down. I doubt 100NL regs are 3betting CO with AQ, KQ, unless you're raising 30% or so in the CO and he's 3betting 10% or so out of the blinds, and it's unlikely TT-88 is in his calling range for the river unless you bet small(ish). Just count the number of combinations you expect to call and see whether or not you beat more than you lose to value bet, but it's probably more of a bet sizing question to get TT-88 to call on the river (if he called on the turn) IMO than it is about whether or not you should bet.

I think I'd just check back TPBK and take a note on what he calls the turn with the first time around, thin value with a flopped TPBK with no history is probably a bad idea vs. a player you think is decent.

76s: Depends on how wide CO is opening,how often he is c-betting, how SB thinks CO is constructing his c-bet range and who is in the BB. If CO is polarized on a lot of flops it is a very easy call.

If you check-back QT vs a good player you cannot barrel off here in the future as a bluff. He will write a note that says: Does not VB river thin when all draws missed. That makes a turn call with A-high standard play. Should you think about this at 100nl when you are the preflop raiser? Not at all.

What you should think about is the value of seeing that your opponent called two streets with say 88 or a FD played passively.

=>

You no longer have to bluff on turn bricks and you can sometimes decide to vb the turn thin, sometimes check back and bluff catch/vb river. You can use your position and are not stuck with first level aggression.

definetly good reasons to checkback, no question.

I feel anyways that when you rly wanna be tough in this spot, you should make this thin val.bet and balance this with a reasonable Bluffrange.

In addition to this,
when you checkback, then not only you will have information.
Villain will also know that yu are not able to val.bet here thinnly on the river...

Your reasons to checkback are anyways good and make sense, so I definitely do not say, that it is bad to checkback here.

But to be very honest,
so a little surprise I am that this is not a val.bet for you.
Would you personal val.bet here?

Thx in advance,
Prologion^^