Sorry everyone that it's taken me several days to respond. Without going into too much detail, I had a serious situation that needed dealing with and I was with my family on Long Island all of last week. I'm back now, so thanks everyone for your patients.
Also, thanks for all the kind words. It's all very encouraging as we continue with the series.
Josh - if your instinct are telling you to lighten up I would follow them - mainly because most will find it hard to digest. But having said that - I am hoping you don't. There are many others series with which to not get heavy math based stuff on the interwebs - and few that do - so I hope you do not lighten too much. But I might be in a minority there .
Noted! You know me though, I have a hard time lightening up on the numbers and given the positive feedback on this one, I probably won't change the numbers-to-words ratio too much
Josh, Any idea how I can activate Pokerazor?
I downloaded it to do some of the Prof Plotkin stuff but not being able to save the trees is a real pain. It would be really good to have for some of this stuff.
Unfortunately, I don't think there's a way to get the real version. I'm really frustrated about that. Pokerazor was fine how it was, and to take it down for 2 years... just very frustrating.
Nice Vid. Maybe someone can help. I understand the math, but how do you apply/plug/crunch the numbers while at play? I only 4 table, but 20 seconds isn't much time? Are you just plugging in on big decision hands, or is it just a matter of practice? Thanks and looking forward to next vids.
Episode 2 will be helpful for this. In general though, very few people (I am not one of them) can really crunch numbers at the table, so it's just a matter of recognizing familiar situations and applying what you know about them. You can also get in the habit of immediately checking your pot odds, narrowing ranges down street-by-street, and considering the # of combinations of strong hands villain can have.
The equities in red at the bottom of the Turn Equity chart were (I think) made taking the weights into consideration. Which program was used for this please ? Razor ?
This was done the old-fashioned way. Well, the 21st century old fashioned way, in Excel. I Poker Stoved the equity against each hand in villain's range, and used excel and Bayes' Theorem to calculate total equity.
If I'm missing something below I apologize in advance for doubting you. This is all mostly based on the fact that I don't understand why you used the pot size of $175 instead of $225 in the calculation below.
At around 30 minutes in you show the calc that your EV of checking behind the turn assuming no river action is your equity * pot size, but you have the pot size as $175 vs the $225 that the 'EV of turn bet' chart has listed.
If you redo the calc with a $225 pot size, you get an EV of ~$87 which is really close to the final EV of a turn bet and a river bet on selected river cards ($87.58) that you presented near the end of the presentation 58 minutes in.
There was a mistake I caught while recording, and I edited it. You'll see the 175 magically changes to 225 when I noticed my mistake.
FWIW, I definitely would have thought the EV of double barreling the Kh would be significantly higher than checking (when adding in river EV obviously), and I would double barrel here with a large portion of my range in game, but I think the reason why the EV of checking might seem higher when analyzing the situation is that our theoretical villain is probably 'too good' and too suspicious compared to the average uNL/SSNL villain (since this is marked as a uNL/SSNL rated video). In my experience, most TAGs/Regs at even 200nl are c/f'ing the turn (or at least the river) a lot more than you give them credit for in the video with weak, made hands which would support your premise that 2 barreling is a lot better than checking back turn.
Yes, this is a good point. If we wanted to expand on this video, we could take a look at a few different types of villains facing the turn bet. Those that c/f their weak made hands on the turn will make 2 barreling very profitable, and 3 barreling potentially very unprofitable.
Thanks for the great video! I'm looking forward to the rest and I also like the math.
Don't forget about QQ+/AsKs/97s being in the range part of the time though. Do TAG's continue with stuff like Ah8h or A5s on the flop with a "check/cakk" ever here? What about 65s?
Would you rather bet a 2 or a ten river? Thanks, Yojimgari
97s is a bit of an oversight, though facing a 4x open and a flop c/c, we're probably somewhere in the <5% weight. The other hands are probably even less likely, when you apply the flat preflop+c/c flop line. AKs and QQ nearly always 3-bet vs. a MP open, A8s/A5s often fold/3-bet preflop and don't always c/c the flop. 65s is probably the most likely out of these hansd.
I'm new to DC and am wondering if I should watch "App Attack" before starting this series. Any recommendations?
These 2 are different series. App Attack covers the Hold'em Manager apps. It's basically a review on each of them so you can make a more informed decision. This series is going to be about specific hand examples and concepts regarding No Limit Hold'em.
What do we do when our opponent reraises the turn but small enough that we can call? It sounds simple to just say well if we have odds then call.
As you noted in the table that our opponent's range changes when he's reraising us on the turn but does it matter if he's crai or putting in some click it back raise? Do we account for him trying to not get barreled and trying to find a cheap showdown + getting value with a9 9j etc? I'm asking because if he puts in a small raise, that gives us more decisions to work with. Will he rr small here with any of those hands and fold to a shove on the turn? Is our decision pretty much limited to bet calling a cheap turn?
If I'm rr'ed here on the turn I feel like we could be up against a 2pr+ hand more often than a blocking marginal hand. If that's the case do we account for less outs for ourselves because paired spades aren't the nuts? Can we still value bet river Q? or what do we do when the river's a Queen?
If we are c/r small on the turn, then we have a profitable spot. It definitely adds a bit to the EV of betting, but it's tough to quantify how often villain c/r all-in vs. c/r small enough for us to call. If he does c/r small, he's put in such a large % of his stack that I'd just about always call instead of push. Push will take the pot down some small % of the time, but overall I think calling for the clearly +EV spot is better.
Agreed that the majority of a c/r range is going to be 2pr+ or maybe like a KJss that crushes us, but still we're going to have good enough equity to call considering our implied odds he's given us by leaving something like 30bb in his stack, with a 150bb pot. He just won't be able to c/f a spade river.