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Jk3a and TecmoSuperBowl team up and begin the adventure to midstakesville. This episode is a HH review session of 100NL hands from Tecmo's database.
Beginning at 100NL, jk3a will show TecmoSuperBowl how to realize his goals and break free of small stakes into a bigger world.
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please use paragraphs if you want me to read it
jk3a -
Can you explain your reasons for flatting big hands (QQ/KK/AA/AK) MP vs UTG open?
because I almost never have a 3bet bluffing range
Your probably right that for most villains this is the case but do you think my line has any merit?
I can assure you that in villains shoes I definitely 4bet wider and I am fairly confident that it is a profitable play.
It looks super strong and villains ranges are wide so you get more folds, plus the pot is bigger so the reward is higher.
it has merit, really depends on the coldcaller
For the quiz:
His range is pocket fives and we lose. No, seriously, we lose against pocket fives.
I just have to start preflop. Because we're raising 2,5, he's a lot more likely to make looser calls than if we raised 3. Therefore, he'll have more broadway stuff that hits this flop, but he'll also have more draws.
I think the flop range could be quite bluffy, I mean 130 hands isn't really a whole lot of hands to get to know someone's true style of play, so I wouldn't put too much into that, except of the slight indication of passiveness. However, tight players are generally very straight forward and uncreative postflop, especially at NL100. This means that his checkraising range on the flop is pretty strong in terms of it being something that has flopped equity. Flushdraws, sets and straightdraws is the majority of his range, and maybe some bluffs, depending on how lucky he's feeling. Most likely semi-bluffs and valuehands though.
The 9 completes the most obvious straight draw, but it also gives a lot of his hands pair + draw or more reason to protect his hand. If we put ourselves in villain's shoes for a moment, we have a couple of options we could choose on the turn. That depends on his perception of us, and what he thinks our most likely holdings and most likely actions are against what action he chooses to take. I'll just generalize his betsizing into two different categories, and take it from there.
When villain decides to bet the turn, he has to consider our likelihood of shoving, calling and folding + what's going to happen on the river. Betting small on the turn could alter our perception of his range, because a bigger bet is related to a stronger hand. A stronger hand means less fold equity, thus also making it less likely for us to shove against a bigger bet than a smaller bet. The 9 is a pretty good card for a lot of our range too, because we could've picked up a couple of extra outs with this card, or even made a couple of combos of two pairs or straight.
I think our stats on the player are even more valid on the turn than on preflop or flop, because they give this indication of a tight-passive player. I don't think this opponent thinks on this level though, because most tight-passive players are level 1 thinkers and probably just goes "WOW WHAT A HAND". Tight-passive players are also afraid of betting big. I mean, they are are tight-passive for a reason, which is that they're scared money. For that reason alone, the only real hands we beat on the turn are semibluffs. One portion of semibluff hands are now removed from his range, and his range became even stronger. However, I really don't like our turn call.
The problem is that, although we know what rivers are good for us if he's bluffing the flop + turn, it just becomes exponentially harder for us to think that this guy who we have pegged as tight-passive will ever bluff the river. Because we don't have any reads at this point, we have to make a decision on the turn and play all our bluffcatchers the same way, regardless of them being KQ or JT. The range that we beat with JT is almost the same as the range we beat with AA if this guy truly is a loose-passive player, so we just have to make up our mind on how much he's bluffing flop-turn-river provided the board doesn't change too drastically by either ending up a 4-straight or by completing the flush. I'd prefer folding the turn, because I think KJ turning the nuts tips the scale too much in his favor to warrant a profitable call.
This guy can have 55, TT, and probably a lot of the medium-to-big suited connectors, but I don't think he'll be man enough to checkraise a draw on the flop and proceed to bet both turn and river. That just doesn't make sense to me. It takes a much stronger player for this to occur. The 9 also isn't really the greatest card to bluff on the river, because a lot of our range just made two pair. I think we should fold the turn because there are too many cards that change the board on the river for us to be making a lot of profitable decisions there, even when he checks. I doubt we're making him fold a set unless the river is like 8
.
He's going to show up with a straight, or a full house (exactly TT, 55, T9) way more often than he's going to show up with A
X
, 8
7
, 7
6
. Shit, even a good chunk of the hands he's likely to semibluff have improved and made trips by the river (J9, 98 or even T9, if he checkraises that). To me this is a pretty clear fold on the turn against a more passive player. I actually even think this is a fold against a very aggressive player too, albeit closer. A decent amount of his straight draws got there with the KJ, and the river made trips for some of his hands that he was bluffing on the flop and turn.
A quick PokerStove of our river decision to back up my answer. I struggle finding good diamond draws that actually missed, except for the nut flush ones.
Board: Qh Td 5d 9c 9h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.273% 27.27% 00.00% 9 0.00 { KdQc }
Hand 1: 72.727% 72.73% 00.00% 24 0.00 { TT, 55, AdJd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KJs, J9s, T9s, 98s, 8d7d, 7d6d, KJo }
As I funnel down the hands he can have come the river, assuming he calls with top pairs and mid pairs and the usual deal, we actually get into a lot of trouble. Even though we're drawing to blanks against his range, which is predominantly draws and sets, and two pairs on the turn, we're in a different situation compared to if we're the ones who are looking to improve. When we're drawing to a strong hand, we have a much easier decision than when we're sitting with a made hand facing a draw ourselves.
I hope that I´m not too late with answering on the quiz - and hopefully I didn´t unintentionally copied another answer, but as nitty as I am I don´t think so ![]()
Answer to the quiz:
His range pre is pretty wide I guess.
His range for c/r the flop could be 55, TT, Qx, KJ, flush draws.
His "weird" bet on the turn shows me that he´s either making a small "scared" blocking bet or he bets for value and wants to keep Qx and flush draws in the pot.
When the river comes and he suddenly increases his betsize it tells me that he goes for "pure value". The only missed draws are the flush draws and a guy who has a decent gap between VPIP and PFR most likely doesn´t play his draws this aggro. Same goes for worse Q. T5 isn´t in his range so the 9 doesn´t counterfeit any 2pairs in his range.
Furthermore he can´t rep the 9, so he has to give Hero either a flush draw himself or Qx. If he wanted Hero to fold a missed draw he could´ve bet smaller, if he wanted him to fold Qx (if ever) he should´ve shoved. So - as I said - he´s not bluffing - which means, we´re crushed.
=> I fold.
Ah - and I forgot to mention that this is simply an awesome series!!! Thx-a-lot for this - I simply can´t await the next episodes!
For the quiz:
His range is pocket fives and we lose. No, seriously, we lose against pocket fives.
I just have to start preflop. Because we're raising 2,5, he's a lot more likely to make looser calls than if we raised 3. Therefore, he'll have more broadway stuff that hits this flop, but he'll also have more draws.
I think the flop range could be quite bluffy, I mean 130 hands isn't really a whole lot of hands to get to know someone's true style of play, so I wouldn't put too much into that, except of the slight indication of passiveness. However, tight players are generally very straight forward and uncreative postflop, especially at NL100. This means that his checkraising range on the flop is pretty strong in terms of it being something that has flopped equity. Flushdraws, sets and straightdraws is the majority of his range, and maybe some bluffs, depending on how lucky he's feeling. Most likely semi-bluffs and valuehands though.
The 9 completes the most obvious straight draw, but it also gives a lot of his hands pair + draw or more reason to protect his hand. If we put ourselves in villain's shoes for a moment, we have a couple of options we could choose on the turn. That depends on his perception of us, and what he thinks our most likely holdings and most likely actions are against what action he chooses to take. I'll just generalize his betsizing into two different categories, and take it from there.
When villain decides to bet the turn, he has to consider our likelihood of shoving, calling and folding + what's going to happen on the river. Betting small on the turn could alter our perception of his range, because a bigger bet is related to a stronger hand. A stronger hand means less fold equity, thus also making it less likely for us to shove against a bigger bet than a smaller bet. The 9 is a pretty good card for a lot of our range too, because we could've picked up a couple of extra outs with this card, or even made a couple of combos of two pairs or straight.
I think our stats on the player are even more valid on the turn than on preflop or flop, because they give this indication of a tight-passive player. I don't think this opponent thinks on this level though, because most tight-passive players are level 1 thinkers and probably just goes "WOW WHAT A HAND". Tight-passive players are also afraid of betting big. I mean, they are are tight-passive for a reason, which is that they're scared money. For that reason alone, the only real hands we beat on the turn are semibluffs. One portion of semibluff hands are now removed from his range, and his range became even stronger. However, I really don't like our turn call.
The problem is that, although we know what rivers are good for us if he's bluffing the flop + turn, it just becomes exponentially harder for us to think that this guy who we have pegged as tight-passive will ever bluff the river. Because we don't have any reads at this point, we have to make a decision on the turn and play all our bluffcatchers the same way, regardless of them being KQ or JT. The range that we beat with JT is almost the same as the range we beat with AA if this guy truly is a loose-passive player, so we just have to make up our mind on how much he's bluffing flop-turn-river provided the board doesn't change too drastically by either ending up a 4-straight or by completing the flush. I'd prefer folding the turn, because I think KJ turning the nuts tips the scale too much in his favor to warrant a profitable call.
This guy can have 55, TT, and probably a lot of the medium-to-big suited connectors, but I don't think he'll be man enough to checkraise a draw on the flop and proceed to bet both turn and river. That just doesn't make sense to me. It takes a much stronger player for this to occur. The 9 also isn't really the greatest card to bluff on the river, because a lot of our range just made two pair. I think we should fold the turn because there are too many cards that change the board on the river for us to be making a lot of profitable decisions there, even when he checks. I doubt we're making him fold a set unless the river is like 8.
He's going to show up with a straight, or a full house (exactly TT, 55, T9) way more often than he's going to show up with AX
, 8
7
, 7
6
. Shit, even a good chunk of the hands he's likely to semibluff have improved and made trips by the river (J9, 98 or even T9, if he checkraises that). To me this is a pretty clear fold on the turn against a more passive player. I actually even think this is a fold against a very aggressive player too, albeit closer. A decent amount of his straight draws got there with the KJ, and the river made trips for some of his hands that he was bluffing on the flop and turn.
A quick PokerStove of our river decision to back up my answer. I struggle finding good diamond draws that actually missed, except for the nut flush ones.
Board: Qh Td 5d 9c 9h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.273% 27.27% 00.00% 9 0.00 { KdQc }
Hand 1: 72.727% 72.73% 00.00% 24 0.00 { TT, 55, AdJd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KJs, J9s, T9s, 98s, 8d7d, 7d6d, KJo }
As I funnel down the hands he can have come the river, assuming he calls with top pairs and mid pairs and the usual deal, we actually get into a lot of trouble. Even though we're drawing to blanks against his range, which is predominantly draws and sets, and two pairs on the turn, we're in a different situation compared to if we're the ones who are looking to improve. When we're drawing to a strong hand, we have a much easier decision than when we're sitting with a made hand facing a draw ourselves.
I like this view.
I think I came to a similiar conclusion however I tend to assume until shown otherwise that he is prolly not c/r KJ. If he is tight passive it might skew his cr range to a very strong value/semi-bluff range.
But with Heros 81% c-bet stat - he might be more inclined to c/r all his draws.
I also like the sentiment that we just dont know very much about him - some showdown info would be very helpful here.
I do agree with your sentiment that that the decision point is the turn.
I think I prolly fold the turn often here although it feels incredibly nitty and I am not sure I am right to do so.
Your probably right that for most villains this is the case but do you think my line has any merit?
I can assure you that in villains shoes I definitely 4bet wider and I am fairly confident that it is a profitable play.
It looks super strong and villains ranges are wide so you get more folds, plus the pot is bigger so the reward is higher.
I disagree that both villains' ranges are wide. The cold caller's range is narrow imo, made up of hands they perceive to be of medium strength (depends on the villain) and slow played monsters. You might have FE vs his range but that is very opponent specific.
Time Link to 00:45:46
I feel like because there is a cold caller there is more dead money in the pot and more incentive to bluff especially if tom is 3 betting light on the button
I feel like because there is a cold caller there is more dead money in the pot and more incentive to bluff especially if tom is 3 betting light on the button
while that may be true, i feel that most openers won't 4bet light because they "know" the cold caller has a very tight/strong range in general
if you somehow knew that the cold caller wouldn't felt most of his flatting range there, then it's a great theoretical spot, just not at all what i see in practice
I think the cold caller's going to show up with 99-QQ, slowplayed AA/KK, and retarded AK. Seems like a value raise to stack those mid pairs/AK's.
tecmo, whats the last stat you have in your HUD, its CRF? whats it mean and where can I find it? ty
EDIT: Found it anyway!
Answer to quiz: Fold river. I think he will have a boat, Q with a bigger kicker, a straight, or whiffed diamonds. Vs this range you are not doing great, plus as JK3A said Tecmo you need to fold more, and I think that this is a good exaple of a hand you can fold more! I think the 1/2 pot donk on turn looks like it can either be for value with his made hands, or as a blocker to set his own price, the wierd river bet is tough, looks like a milker - fold pls!
Sorry i couldnt respond sooner. Crf = checkraise flop for anyone else out there.
L
Nice video guys! I think this series is going to help some areas in which I've been struggling. I can relate to Tom's issue of knowledge vs. execution. I hate going over my HHs sometimes because in retrospect, I usually know when I took a bad line or bad bet sizing, but I struggle with making a calm, thoughtful decision in the moment too often (and I have played much much more volume than Tecmo and still struggle with it).
An exercise that im going to try is cutting down tables every now and then and just assigning ranges on every hand and every street, especially in hands im not involved in. Basically what we should already do but more intense. I think with practice ill get better and quicker, and once you are able to define a narrow range quickly, ez game imo.
Tom, one thing that might help is Leatherass' recommendation of play:study ratio. He recommends a 4:1 play-to-study ratio of your poker time, unless you're really struggling at your current stakes or made a jump to higher stakes, then maybe less is acceptable. He really stresses about maximizing the $$$ value of the time you spend with poker.
He covers a lot of this stuff in his book (Treat Your Poker Like a Business), which is like $40. It's mostly about stuff like this, the soft skills of making the most money from poker. Nowadays where poker books can cost 3 or 4-figure sums, it's value is a no brainer.
Ive heard mixed reviews on his book but might check it out at some point. Thx for the HU.
I'd also like to see some sort of Video about how a coach reviews his session. More of what I should be doing for that hour.
Stheif09 and I did a video on this exact thing. Think it was called Mentor. Search for that and you should be able to find it.
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