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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by Joe Tall (Micro/Small Stakes)

Hey it's me sitting out! lol

I dont agree with the AA slowplay at all on 236.
Missing so much value from the pair+draw hand like 34 or 44 or ton of hands like that, they will check behind on turn and then dont give any action on the river when they miss.

I think you over estimating the players range. He doesnt have 43, etc here, often enough, if ever.

On the AQs 3 bet hand when we are OOP on JTx with a backdoor flush draw. The conclusion was to bet small and ship over a min raise.

There was very little comment about the player OTB but in the absence of reads I am more likely to CR all in here because my push in this situation is nearer to pot size rather than the 1/2 pot push we get after he makes a min-raise. In addition, if he makes a raise much greater than min we have (almost) no fold equity at all on the flop.

Is my analysis way off base here and if so why?

Great series. I'll actually try to remember to enter the next one :-(

T

In the ATs hand against the nit you mentioned that the plan on this board when villain check/calls flop is to double barrel a lot of turn cards, but I guess that in this case we mean shoving considering the awkward stack sizes after our squeeze (villain has exactly a psb behind after a 9.5$ cbet on the flop).

I think you over estimating the players range. He doesnt have 43, etc here, often enough, if ever.

Really? I would consider the majority of his range a hand like a gutshot, a pair or a combination of those. He can also have a hand like 77 or 88 or maybe even AX that he is going to call of the extra 22 dollars with if you ship it in on the flopp!

All of these hands are going to take the free card and might not give any action on river unless improved, while there is no way he will fold any of these hands on the flopp. Some pairs he has might ship turn a descent precentage of the time but alot of stuff is going to check back.


I guess im wondering what the benefit of the slowplay is? I guess to get lucky and let him actually hit a pair when he doesnt have one already and ship it in with that. I think its almost never going to happen that the guy shipps turn with any air, unless he is just very stupid. I simply think that when he get called he is simply going to try to improve and check most of his stuff.
Its so bad when he has one of all these hands that will call the all in raise and then just checks behind and doesnt improve and wont call river.


I mean I think he is almost never going to fold for the 22 extra dollars on the flopp. Think about it, he is snappcalling with AT if that's what he has. I dont know what you wanna put in his range here that he is going to fold? And even if there is stuff I dont think the slowplay is gaining the ammount of value you loose from the hands he is going to snappcall with. If he has A high he is snappcalling, any gutshot, any pair, KJ offsuit he is even calling. While if you call and he doesnt improve he can check it back and have nothing by the river. Also a pair of sevens might check back on a king or something and then fold on a river jack.
On the flopp the fish is going to be embarrased to minraise and then fold for so little extra. He will herocall with whatever he minraised 90%+ of the time in my mind. Never folding 2 brodway cards if he did raise them.


I love Vanessa's analyzing and reasoning in poker! But we all get a little fancy at times. I'm not trying to give her any crap here but that slowplay is a little fancy I think. Look, he is calling with his crap! gogo!

Really? I would consider the majority of his range a hand like a gutshot, a pair or a combination of those. He can also have a hand like 77 or 88 or maybe even AX that he is going to call of the extra 22 dollars with if you ship it in on the flopp!

We 3-bet preflop, a lot of the hands you are considering are going to be eliminated.

On the AQs 3 bet hand when we are OOP on JTx with a backdoor flush draw. The conclusion was to bet small and ship over a min raise.

There was very little comment about the player OTB but in the absence of reads I am more likely to CR all in here because my push in this situation is nearer to pot size rather than the 1/2 pot push we get after he makes a min-raise. In addition, if he makes a raise much greater than min we have (almost) no fold equity at all on the flop.

Is my analysis way off base here and if so why?

Great series. I'll actually try to remember to enter the next one :-(

T

We did 3-bet preflop, so I would think check-raising after 3-betting on a board like this does not fit to many hands in your range. If we do have a hand, we never want to check to give a chance a a free card so we should stay in balance with a continuation bet.

you must be kidding about the AK utg ship it in > 4bet/c, call, fold
basically if he's at least halfway decent any of the other options (apart from 4b/f obv) is better, depending on image, gameflow, reads etc.

if we ship it in, our hand looks like exactly what we have, he can narrow our range to exactly one hand (the one hand thats stong enough to ship it in, but wants pps to fold because its only coinflipping with them) and play perfectly against it

he's just going to call with all hands that are ahead of us or flipping and fold everything else (like call TT+,AK fold AQ- etc.)

When I saw the quiz results all voting ship preflop from:

FoxwoodsFiend
whitelime
Krantz
WiltOnTilt
DJ Sensei

I couldnt wait for Vanessa's analysis and really enjoyed her explanation.

We 3-bet preflop, a lot of the hands you are considering are going to be eliminated.

Really? well if we consider him only having hands you are supposed to call with preflop he is going to call your ship 100% on the flopp. He wont be folding any 2 brodway cards or ace high and no pairs for sure? So that would make the slowplay even worse.

But I think he can have anything if he is a fish, right?

Anyway I love this series and its very educatinal and fun for alot of people. In poker people are always going to have different ways of thinking about situations and all of wich can be profitable.

Its nice beeing able to chat and learn about other people's reasoning.

Im simply trying to get it into my head why I would slowplay in this spot.

When I saw the quiz results all voting ship preflop from:

FoxwoodsFiend
whitelime
Krantz
WiltOnTilt
DJ Sensei
Clicktyclick

I couldnt wait for Vanessa's analysis and really enjoyed her explanation.

FYP duh!

My first attempt maths was wrong, so I edited and this is the second go, feel free to correct it...

you must be kidding about the AK utg ship it in > 4bet/c, call, fold
basically if he's at least halfway decent any of the other options (apart from 4b/f obv) is better, depending on image, gameflow, reads etc.

if we ship it in, our hand looks like exactly what we have, he can narrow our range to exactly one hand (the one hand thats stong enough to ship it in, but wants pps to fold because its only coinflipping with them) and play perfectly against it

he's just going to call with all hands that are ahead of us or flipping and fold everything else (like call TT+,AK fold AQ- etc.)

If he calls the shove with the hands you gave, TT+,AKs,AKo, then that is 3.5% of possible hands.
Each time we shove and he calls and we win it is +$55.25, ($12+$43.25)
Each time we shove and he calls and we lose it is -$49.25, ($6+$43.25)

0.4x($55.25)- 0.6($49.25) = -$7.85

22.10-29.55, so if he does call with that range then we lose $7.45 every time we shove and he calls.

Opponent is 19/18, 7.9% 3bet, fold to 3bet is 70.6% over 667 hands

So, if he 3bets 7.9% and only calls the shove with 3.5% of possible hands then more than 50% of the time he is folding, but lets call it 50% and give him a bit because its an easy figure to work with... (fudge alert!)

$12 in the pot when we make the shove and he folds half the time.
So, when we make the shove...

50% of the time we win $12
50% of the time we lose $7.45

So we win $4.55 every time we shove. Making the shove a sexy choice.

Yeah regarding the AK ship.
I defenitly put in the wrong answer here.
Some of you guys who doesnt like the ship seem to be a little bit strung up on this balance concept. You have to remember that you do not need to balance if people are not going to pick up and try to take advantage of what you are doing. And you can not set up things the same way with people that are not thinking that deeply about what you are doing.
Also keep in mind when you are thinking about this balance concept that it's what happens in your opponent's mind that is relevant and how you actually play the different hands in your range is irrelevant.

If you play $50NL I would say you can still 4bet bluff small while in this spot you want to shove AK.
- "I want to be able to 4bet bluff here small!"
That argument simply doesnt apply here.

Other then that I did enjoy Vanessa's reasoning alot, got my head working a bit. Shipping is best option.

When I saw the quiz results all voting ship preflop from:

FoxwoodsFiend
whitelime
Krantz
WiltOnTilt
DJ Sensei

I couldnt wait for Vanessa's analysis and really enjoyed her explanation.

I found that analysis very interesting and hadn't really considered that option before. Wondering why none of DC's videos have covered this before when it's what all the coaches would have done? You guys holding out on us?

I found that analysis very interesting and hadn't really considered that option before. Wondering why none of DC's videos have covered this before when it's what all the coaches would have done? You guys holding out on us?

Oh, I think you could digg and find
So much material here.

I found that analysis very interesting and hadn't really considered that option before. Wondering why none of DC's videos have covered this before when it's what all the coaches would have done? You guys holding out on us?

It is all inside wiltontilt maths of NLHE series.

I have said before, and you can see it in the whitelime/jman PLO series, the difference between the top pros and us little folk is they bother to work through the equity of hands away from the table often enough so when these things come up they can spot them and we are thinking "what do we do now?".

Which means I probably got it wrong lol!