Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

so, tell me, what's wrong with my range, when you think, it's wrong. maths won't lie.

I will - but I am busy right now, so later today maybe.

You really have to weigh his range much differently. He can't have all AA combos or all flushcombos here. That is way too much.

That means, in your opinion that whenever he gets 5s6s and hero opens, he will always 3bet, never shove the flop, always check the turn and always lead the river. The same with all the others you have listed.

I can see him call with AK or AJ here for sure, maybe AQ.

Remember we look like a draw when we CR the flop and check the turn. You have to take our perceived range into account here.

Hand 0: 71.429% { JcJd }
Hand 1: 28.571% { AA, KdKs, KhKs, AcJc, AdJd, 8s7s, AcKs, AdKs, AhKs, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, AcJd, AcJs, AdJc, AdJs, AsJc, AsJd }

This should be more plausible.

I think he will close to 100% 3bet AI with a small flush on the flop but I have added one combo of that even though I believe it should be too much.

He won't play 99 this way but could easily have AKx and AxK.

Also consistent with his play is some combos of AJ and AA of course.

If he is good he'll know the A did not help you since you check back the turn so a few times he might valuebet KK on the river, but obv not every time.

All of his range could call you except for KK maybe but still it should be more than 50%.

Hand 0: 71.429% { JcJd }
Hand 1: 28.571% { AA, KdKs, KhKs, AcJc, AdJd, 8s7s, AcKs, AdKs, AhKs, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, AcJd, AcJs, AdJc, AdJs, AsJc, AsJd }
[...]
This should be more plausible.
[...]
All of his range could call you except for KK maybe but still it should be more than 50%.

I disagree, I can´t see a "very solid player and big winner in this game" ever calling a shove on the river 150bb deep with a bare Ace ... he probably should´ve a hard time calling with AJ as well.

I disagree, I can´t see a "very solid player and big winner in this game" ever calling a shove on the river 150bb deep with a bare Ace ... he probably should´ve a hard time calling with AJ as well.

He is not 150 BB deep on the river anymore.

The thing that he is a big winner does not have to mean he is good at laying down big hands (like winning players on NL100) but more that he might be better at handreading.

And we look like NOTHING when we shove the river here. When we raise the flop and check back the turn we look like exactly a draw or maybe a weirdly played TP on the flop trying to protect.

He should know that if he is a winner, that is why we shove.

It is because of our perceived range. And against our perceived range he is way ahead with the range I have listed.

It is because of our perceived range. And against our perceived range he is way ahead with the range I have listed.

Maybe I´m overthinking but a winning player who perceives Hero as a strong player as well should ask himself what HIS perceived range is - and with him 3-betting preflop and c-betting this flop, checking the turn and betting the river his line is quite strong, which means - even when Hero reps little - Hero still can´t count on much FE, which reversely makes his shove even stronger.

Ah - and we almost NEVER shove the river with a "weirdly played TP" and most flush draws in our range hit the A on the turn. Which reduces the air-type hands in our range to nearly zero ...

your turn check really threw me off. i think we should defintely bet turn and get the money in. a spade falling is a disaster when the pot is already this huge.

I'm luckily not the only one who is thinking WTF is going on here. I smell someone with MUBS here.

I bet get it in on the turn for value. As played on the river you only need to be good 29% to breakeven so I'm not sure why you fold?

Maybe I´m overthinking but a winning player who perceives Hero as a strong player as well should ask himself what HIS perceived range is - and with him 3-betting preflop and c-betting this flop, checking the turn and betting the river his line is quite strong, which means - even when Hero reps little - Hero still can´t count on much FE, which reversely makes his shove even stronger.

Ah - and we almost NEVER shove the river with a "weirdly played TP" and most flush draws in our range hit the A on the turn. Which reduces the air-type hands in our range to nearly zero ...

You can't assume he thinks Hero is a strong player. You don't know that.
And even if some of our FD hits the A on the turn we still lose with TP to the majority of his range.

C-betting this flop does not show too much strenght I think. Monotone flops are pretty good to bluff at.

Oh yeah and shove the river for value as played because generally people don't have the discipline to fold Ax here. I've seen so many people check the ace when it hits and they have it and they bluff the ace when they don't have sd value that I think you can skew his range towards Ax. A flush would likely bet the turn again to build the pot imo.

[...]because generally people don't have the discipline to fold Ax here [...]

We still talk about a "very solid, big winning" player - over 600k hands, aren´t we?

A flush would likely bet the turn again to build the pot imo.

No.

No.[/quote]

If he is a good player he will NEVER play a flush like this.

Shove the river.