Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

if he's bluffy, i c/c. if he's not, i b/f

if he's bluffy, i c/c. if he's not, i b/f

Yeah.

I just assume a 40/0 to be more passive than aggressive, also regarding bluffing so I think I would just bet here.

A guy like this will almost never shove a draw.

I have a question at Tubasteve, You say youd rather Check call here?

Id like to know your plans for turn and river if you check call? Whats the plan on turn and river? The guy seems so passive that I do not see him betting worse behind us (22-1010) and by C/c i find Im not sure where I stand in the hand? Obs if the guy is aggro, Id c/c but to a passive fish, I cant comfortably do this and still have a plan for the turn shud it drop a 2? Please let me know?

if he's bluffy, i c/c. if he's not, i b/f

if he's not bluffy i still don't think b/f is better than c/f

"i THINK i would rather c/c than bet/fold if i had to choose between the two" - Tubasteve

Tubasteve this is what you said earlier?, and now your saying youd rather check fold????

Im slightly confused here, if we bet fold 1/2 pot we only have to win 33% of the time, now your saying check fold? Am i reading this wrong, can you please explain.

Options
C/R
C/F
C/C
B/F

We can assume hes not bluffy, hes a 43/0 no agression

so if we bet, he's going to fold 2 outers and call with everything that beats us. if we check, hes probably going to check back the two outers, and still probably hands that we lose to like Qx. so there's no reason to bet when we never get value from worse and never fold out hands with a significant equity share. it makes more sense to just check/fold, expecting it to get checked through a lot.

basically no matter what he's likely to do when we check, i think betting is -EV compared to checking. if he's bluffy, we c/c. if not, we c/f.

so if we bet, he's going to fold 2 outers and call with everything that beats us. if we check, hes probably going to check back the two outers, and still probably hands that we lose to like Qx. so there's no reason to bet when we never get value from worse and never fold out hands with a significant equity share. it makes more sense to just check/fold, expecting it to get checked through a lot.

basically no matter what he's likely to do when we check, i think betting is -EV compared to checking. if he's bluffy, we c/c. if not, we c/f.

ok that makes more sense.....

What hands are you b/f then tuba?

AA,AK?

so if we bet, he's going to fold 2 outers and call with everything that beats us. if we check, hes probably going to check back the two outers, and still probably hands that we lose to like Qx. so there's no reason to bet when we never get value from worse and never fold out hands with a significant equity share. it makes more sense to just check/fold, expecting it to get checked through a lot.

basically no matter what he's likely to do when we check, i think betting is -EV compared to checking. if he's bluffy, we c/c. if not, we c/f.

I don't really see where the statement " he is never going to call with worse" comes from. He is a 43/0. He will call with Ax, Tx, Jx. and probably also 9x. He will every day and night with his flush draws also.

So there is plenty to get value from vs a passive fish here.

I don't really see where the statement " he is never going to call with worse" comes from. He is a 43/0. He will call with Ax, Tx, Jx. and probably also 9x. He will every day and night with his flush draws also.

So there is plenty to get value from vs a passive fish here.

yeah thats fair, i should have chosen my words more carefully. i still don't think those hands make up enough of his range that i feel great betting since many of them have pretty solid equity and he's also calling with any Kx Qx, of which there are probably more combos than Tx/Jx. i'm too tired to count the combos now unfortunately...lol

edit: the stove above gives us 25% equity vs a pretty loose range (although not as loose as what you mentioned)...still want to bet for value?

I would c/f here

if he is a 43/0, that definitely means that he is capable of being the type to just check down a lot of air / low pairs here, so its not like he is just going to bluff us off our hand every time

i think his betting range is gonna be pretty far ahead of you, and even when its not, are you planning to c/c multiple streets? you can't assume he is going to bet the flop and check back the turn, you just aren't going to be able to get to showdown enough to justify a flop c/c

here's a significanly looser range of like 19% of all total hands:

Board: Ks Qs Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.903% 33.63% 04.27% 55939 7102.00 { AdJc }
Hand 1: 62.097% 57.83% 04.27% 96177 7102.00 { 99+, ATs+, As9s, As8s, As7s, Ad6d, As6s, A5s-A2s, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, ATo+, KTo+, QJo, JTo, T9o }

he's 43 vpip so if that stat is reliable for him to show up with this many hands on the flop he'd probably have to almost never be folding to a 3-bet, and we still aren't really that happy. even if we add in some more hands like bare Ax:

Board: Ks Qs Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.812% 39.83% 04.98% 76897 9613.00 { AdJc }
Hand 1: 55.188% 50.21% 04.98% 96927 9613.00 { 99+, ATs+, As9s, As8s, As7s, Ad6d, As6s, A5s-A2s, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, A7o+, KTo+, QJo, JTo, T9o }

Board: Ks Qs Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.872% 47.07% 05.81% 111827 13798.00 { AdJc }
Hand 1: 47.128% 41.32% 05.81% 98177 13798.00 { 99+, ATs+, As9s, As8s, As7s, Ad6d, As6s, A5s-A2s, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, A2o+, KTo+, QJo, JTo, T9o }

so even if we give him every Axo and tons of comboos of FD we're barely ahead. in conclusion i think c/f >>>> b/f >>>>>>>> c/c

here's a significanly looser range of like 19% of all total hands:

Board: Ks Qs Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.903% 33.63% 04.27% 55939 7102.00 { AdJc }
Hand 1: 62.097% 57.83% 04.27% 96177 7102.00 { 99+, ATs+, As9s, As8s, As7s, Ad6d, As6s, A5s-A2s, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, ATo+, KTo+, QJo, JTo, T9o }

he's 43 vpip so if that stat is reliable for him to show up with this many hands on the flop he'd probably have to almost never be folding to a 3-bet, and we still aren't really that happy. even if we add in some more hands like bare Ax:

Board: Ks Qs Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.812% 39.83% 04.98% 76897 9613.00 { AdJc }
Hand 1: 55.188% 50.21% 04.98% 96927 9613.00 { 99+, ATs+, As9s, As8s, As7s, Ad6d, As6s, A5s-A2s, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, A7o+, KTo+, QJo, JTo, T9o }

Board: Ks Qs Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.872% 47.07% 05.81% 111827 13798.00 { AdJc }
Hand 1: 47.128% 41.32% 05.81% 98177 13798.00 { 99+, ATs+, As9s, As8s, As7s, Ad6d, As6s, A5s-A2s, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, A2o+, KTo+, QJo, JTo, T9o }

so even if we give him every Axo and tons of comboos of FD we're barely ahead. in conclusion i think c/f >>>> b/f >>>>>>>> c/c

Yeah, I get your point but I think the range could use some adjustments.

You put 99+ in his range and AT+. Even donks would reraise JJ+ and AK preflop so I think the following range is more accurate. This is his calling range for us betting the flop.

Hand 0: 53.179% { AdJc }
Hand 1: 46.821% { TT-99, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T7s+, 97s+, 8s7s, AQo-A2o, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+ }

But I am not betting for value every time here on the flop. I also bet for protection and for taking the pot down.

How important it is for us to bet to take the pot down obv. depends on how likely the donk is to try and bluff us if we try and check it down which is hard to say. Even the most passive donks will often try at least 1 street of bluffing if you raise preflop and keep checking 3 streets.

If I bet here it will just be a half pot bet meaning it has to work like 1/3 of the time compared to c/f.

I think c/f here is a little too weak, but it is definitely a close one.

Even donks would reraise JJ+ and AK preflop

Based on his preflop stats you simply can not assume this. some fish will 3bet these hands, but plenty of them will not

Based on his preflop stats you simply can not assume this. some fish will 3bet these hands, but plenty of them will not

But then YOU can not assume he is one of them who won't?

I think only JJ and AK are possible for him to flat with.

Almost every donk would either limp reraise or 3 bet (often click) with QQ+ preflop. At least from my experience.

You can't really rely that much on his preflop stats for 40 hands anyway.