Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

The hand is HU but the table was 6max before, and I belive vilain is a 6max reg. I'm not playing often on pokerstars, so we don't have much information on each other so far.
I've been 3betting a bunch and playing overall quite agressively. Vilain has played 21/17 so far. On a small sample, he has raised my CB 2 or 3 times.

What do you think of my line? I bet very small as a cheap bluff, but I also believe it might induce raises from vilain. Therefore my subsequent shove. Obviously, regarding history, it's tough to estimate how wide he'll raise, and how wide he'll stack off. I do have some equity when called though.
Am I just spewing off?

Poker Stars $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players - View hand 1854861
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN/SB: $200.00
Hero (BB): $459.22

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with 7 A
BTN/SB raises to $6, Hero raises to $20, BTN/SB calls $14

Flop: ($40.00) 8 6 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $12.00, BTN/SB raises to $42, Hero raises to $439.22

Final Pot: $124.00

Preflop
3-betting A7o is a huge mistake. If it would be good, you wouldn't have created this thread. Flat pre and play postflop.

Flop
UNDERbetting was another mistake. Imagine you have an overpair, TT+. What is your bet sizing? And please don't lie yourself you would have bet with the same sizing. Villain's range for raising can be super wide, can be narrow, I don't know. Probably wider because of your sizing. However, this doesn't mean you have to play back at him with your weak hand.

KQo with FD has 43.283% equity and is certainly not going to fold. AcXx crush you with 75% equity. Vs a flush you are basically dead.

I'd c-bet ~~ $27 and be done with the hand vs raise without having info on Villain. Just work on equity on monotone boards -> with such hand you are either flipping with a pair / worse FD+2 overs OR you are a huge underdog / drawing dead.

His raise/calling range is prob:

Board: 8c 6c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.976% 24.36% 00.62% 7476 189.00 { Ad7c }
Hand 1: 75.024% 74.41% 00.62% 22836 189.00 { 99-88, 7c7d, 7c7h, 7c7s, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs }

It's 31 combos.

I will calculate the break even needed Fold Equity.

Assumptions:
- Fold Equity: 45%
- Equity: 25%
- Pot Size: $52 ($40 + our $12 c-bet)
- Villain's Bet: $42
- Our Raise/Bet Size: $168

Expected Value: $3.3 -> this doesn't take rake into account, so I assume this is the break even point

So he has to raise AT LEAST 57 combos (where he has about 31 value combos) -> 26 bluff combos. Imo you packed yourself in an ultra difficult spot, which is simply too complex to play it in a +EV way without more info on Villain.

Why do you think 3betting Ax is so bad? I think these are good hands to 3b and then 5bet shove when vilain decides to 4b, as I was expecting him to start doing that sooner or later (I had been 3betting a lot).
Regarding playability, it's surely not the best hand at all, but I feel having initiative and the A backup doesn't make the hand so tough to play. I mean, comparing the playability of 33 and A7o in a 3b pot HU when starting a 3b / 5b strategy, I'd rather have A7 when called right?

You think 3betting is a worse option than calling with this holding? I would usually fold it unless against someone I have good reads, or against a minraise.

This said, this is for sure not a great hand, but I'm trying to put myself in situations I'm not used to, especially heads up, and surely I'll leak some money in the process.


Thanks for the computation of combos, I always appreciate your analytical approach in all your posts. You do show here that vilain needs to bluff a lot.
In a vacuum, is there any merit in betting the flop very small as I did (with other holdings)? Let's say with the Ac, or TP and better. I actually am not sure how often it induces bluff raises or light peels. Definitely something to look into I feel though, as being able to use various betsizing makes one tough to play (I know, balance is always to be taken into account).

Why do you think 3betting Ax is so bad? I think these are good hands to 3b and then 5bet shove when vilain decides to 4b, as I was expecting him to start doing that sooner or later (I had been 3betting a lot).

Stove equity of A7o vs any reasonable flatting range. Let's practice it:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.392% 41.35% 02.04% 739149972 36546366.00 { A7o }
Hand 1: 56.608% 54.56% 02.04% 975402672 36546366.00 { 88-77, AJs-A8s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo-ATo, KJo+ }


It's a pretty narrow range, but very reasonable (I assume he 3b/5b { 99+, AQ+ }, which is standard in HU). At first glance, your equity looks good, but don't forget this calculation assumes you will see all 5 cards. KQ won't let you catch your A on Kxx board.

On Axx boards you will either get max one street of value out lower pairs or you will end up paying off hugely Ax with better kickers.

They key is to dominate and at the same time to avoid being dominated. Here you let dominate yourself. Therefore 3-betting sucks, this hand sucks postflop.


You can UNDERbet the flop if you can simply predict Villain's reactions with various holdings and adjust accordingly. For example, say you know he is super raise happy when faces UNDERbets. So with flushes, NFDs and overpairs you want to UNDERbet the flop in order to induce a raise and then 3-bet him (I would highly consider clicking it back, so min-3betting with flushes and NFDs).

If you know UNDERbetting is as accurate vs him as a normal sized bet, then obv bet smaller to risk less.

I like Stackhunter's analysis, very usefull as usual. The only think I have my doubt about is villains raising range you assign. I think villain raising range is much much wider in this situation and so we have much more FE on our shove. If you look at the hand again, I'm pretty sure you will agree that villain will try to win this pot also with much weaker hands without even a draw. The pot is just to big compared to hero's sizing to give up imediatly and villain is trying to push hero of the hand with his total preflop calling range. Versus a bigger cbet size this would be a total different story but this sizing manipulates villains action very hard imo.

Fwiw calling A7o v a 3x PFR is likely to be a losing call HU unless you have a ton of info on your opponent so you can own them postflop (say they chkbk give up alot IP). Also i don't imagine a 6maxer is opening 100% buttons HU which makes it even worse.

I think your flop 3B jam is bad, sometimes he's gonna fold but mostly you'll you run into a number of pair / higher club hands ~ and your equity v them is gonna be pretty gross

I think villain raising range is much much wider in this situation and so we have much more FE on our shove. If you look at the hand again, I'm pretty sure you will agree that villain will try to win this pot also with much weaker hands without even a draw.

This could be true, but we don't know. Doing two mistakes doesn't obligate us to make the third in a row. You can convince me it is a +EV move to shove AI here, I can convince you it isn't - and we may both be right.

This could be true, but we don't know. Doing two mistakes doesn't obligate us to make the third in a row. You can convince me it is a +EV move to shove AI here, I can convince you it isn't - and we may both be right.

Even with a little more fold equity we still are almost breaking even I guess so I def not like the flop jam. I just think that we might fold the best hand sometimes here because of our terrible sizing. This sizing will def induce some raises but we don't have the hand to play back so why induce?! I would cbet this flop bigger.

Even with a little more fold equity we still are almost breaking even I guess so I def not like the flop jam. I just think that we might fold the best hand sometimes here because of our terrible sizing. This sizing will def induce some raises but we don't have the hand to play back so why induce?! I would cbet this flop bigger.

Exactly, small bet sizing has put us in more difficult spot, then it originally was.

Stove equity of A7o vs any reasonable flatting range. Let's practice it:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.392% 41.35% 02.04% 739149972 36546366.00 { A7o }
Hand 1: 56.608% 54.56% 02.04% 975402672 36546366.00 { 88-77, AJs-A8s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo-ATo, KJo+ }

If that is his flatting range it is a fine 3bet. Villain's F23b in this situation will be +70%.
Even if that is not the case it is still more than okay to 3bet Top 25% (which A7o belongs to).

You cannot just look at one hand a say if it is good or bad. You have to look at the whole strategy.

I agree that the size of the flop bet looks a little strange. Not a size I would normally pick for the range I'm betting on that flop.