Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Poker Stars $100 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1851946
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BB: $100.00 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 24, 3B: 10, AF: 2,2, Hands: 171
UTG: $109.30 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 16, 3B: 6, AF: 3,0, Hands: 111
MP: $100.00 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 3,5, Hands: 64
Hero (CO): $134.70 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 17, 3B: 8, AF: 5,3, Hands: 35266
BTN: $100.00 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 11, 3B: 3, AF: 2,3, Hands: 82
SB: $39.30 - VPIP: 55, PFR: 9, 3B: 0, AF: 1,0, Hands: 47

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with J K
1 fold, MP raises to $3, Hero calls $3, BTN calls $3, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($13.00) 9 A 8 (4 players)
SB checks, MP bets $4, Hero calls $4, BTN raises to $20

Preflop
Std.

Flop
I float flop beacuse MP is likely to continue bluffing on club turns and bricks. But now I'am facing a backraise from BTN, I think his range for backraising is 88(3), 99(3), AA(3), AKs(3), AKo(6), AQs(3), AJs(3), ATs(3). Folding is out of the question, so call or 3b. (if so, how much and why?)

Thoughs??

Thx..

So Btn 3bets 3% and you give him aces or AKo, AKs? I dont think he will ever show up with aces or AKs, maybe sometimes with AKo. You are playing a 16/11/3 nit who cant have tjcc and will almost always not raise a FD in a multiway-pot on a A-high-board. I honestly think a player like that is almost never bluffing or 3betfolding that flop. You think he doesn't call the bu multiway with a8/a9s? Is he really raising at, aj for Value? Did you ever see him raisefolding in a multiwaypot?

If MP calls you can call too, since you are getting the right odds, but I don#t think i would ever be happy to get a FD in in a HU-spot vs. a nit in a 3waypot where so much of his 3betting-range is solely for Value and not folding to a raise or shove and crushes you hard very often.

I somehow overlooked Btn's 3b % of 3, I also agree, that he very rarely not 3b AA and AK. I think the question we need to ask here is; does Btn ever raise OTF as a bluff? - which i don't think he does, which means he don't going to fold any hands in his range.

Do you think we can call, even if MP folds, to make our flush and expect to winning at least one whole stack, when MP or Btn has a set or A8s A9s??

I dont like the range you put him on. You didnt consider what he might 3bet preflop and Im really not sure if you should add hands like AJ or AT to his c/r range 4handed. He is a nit and stacking off with tpmk doesnt seem like his preferred scenario.
I expect his range to be pretty strong and I would just wait and see how SB/MP react. If both of them fold, its fine to give up out of position.

Your pot odds: 28%
Your odds to hit a club ~~ 20%

Pot on the Turn will be $57.00
You need to win $16 : 0.2 = $80, so additional $23 when you make your flush - it's fairly possible. Problem begins if the turn will be 9 . A8s won't give you much more value, worse flushes might pay you max 1 more street and you are dead vs the rest. Basically I see max 2-3 combos of worse flushes, the rest are either two pair or sets. That being said you have to avoid 9c and as a result you have 8 clean outs.

8/47 = 17%

$16 : 0.17 = $94

So if a good turn card will fall, you need to make him call at least $37 into the $57. When he has a monster that's definitely possible, implied pot odds are huge. Just remember NOT to pay him off on 9c.

Obviously call, I don't see any reason in 3b vs a super strong range. Make sure to lead the turn when you hit, vs sets it doesn't matter, but vs two pair it does - he might xb himself.

I'm raising the flop in Hero's spot. the underbet is weak, there's players behind who *might* bluff raise, and we have no show-down value.

Also, a raise and 2nd brl puts any hand like AJ behind us in a horrible spot.

I'm raising the flop in Hero's spot. the underbet is weak, there's players behind who *might* bluff raise, and we have no show-down value.

Also, a raise and 2nd brl puts any hand like AJ behind us in a horrible spot.

We have almost the best non-paired hand (besides KQ). Vs any UNDERpair we have 15-outer, so over 50% chance to outdraw them till the river. I think we do have SDV.

I doubt AJ raises here with that sizing. And even if, you're targeting only 9 combos (I'd say 5-6 max in reality), whereas he will fold those to your shove and call it off with 13 combos:
{ 99-88,A9s-A8s,98s } - your equity vs that range is 30.51%

With 50% fold equity the EV of your 3b shove will be $4.3, NOT including the rake, so I assume this is ~~ breakeven point. Not sure if you can reach 50% FEQ. You also look like a draw after calling the initial UNDERbet and then shoving over the raise and I wouldn't be surprised if Villain would look you up with AQ/AJ. And this would destroy your EV.

Sorry, didnt see that MP is cbetting this small. Thought that he was using standard sizing which would make BTN´s raise a lot stronger. Given the sizing, its a pretty easy call, even if the other players dont call.

Nice analysis.. thx.. Could you please explain this/your thoughproces or reasoning?:

Pot on the Turn will be $57.00 You need to win $16 : 0.2 = $80, so additional $23 when you make your flush

I understand that I need to win overall 8% more of what amount that I'am investing/paying for playing the rest of the hand, to make up for the lack of my 8% equity(implied odds). Which I think is quity possible, because I have 8 clean outs.vs this Villian. (he will not be able to lay down his sets or two pair, when the flush comes, I agree with that.

Could you please explain this/your thoughproces or reasoning?:

Pot on the Turn will be $57.00 You need to win $16 : 0.2 = $80, so additional $23 when you make your flush

- I assumed you are drawing to 9 outs, which should show up OTT ~~ 20% of the time (actually 19%, but for easier calculations)
- I calculated how much more you need to win in order to make the call 0EV
- it turned out that you need to win ~~ 1/2 PSB on the turn to make the call 0EV
- take into account you may have only 8 clean outs, therefore even bigger implied pot odds are required

- I assumed you are drawing to 9 outs, which should show up OTT ~~ 20% of the time (actually 19%, but for easier calculations)
- I calculated how much more you need to win in order to make the call 0EV
- it turned out that you need to win ~~ 1/2 PSB on the turn to make the call 0EV
- take into account you may have only 8 clean outs, therefore even bigger implied pot odds are required

I think i understand, but ½ PSB(potsizedbet) OTT is $28?

So if a good turn card will fall, you need to make him call at least $37 into the $57.

Slightly more then 1/2 psb but the number in one of his posts above is the correct one.

Sorry, didnt see that MP is cbetting this small. Thought that he was using standard sizing which would make BTN´s raise a lot stronger. Given the sizing, its a pretty easy call, even if the other players dont call.

You really think so.
This is actually a spot I fold because implied odds of hitting our flush arent that high.

My rationale is that I think BTNs range is usually strong here (whereas in reality it might not be), and he will expect our range when calling flop to be Ax and FD, and we dont get much value on turned FD. Maybe both these stipulations are incorrect though. This is somewhere Im unsure about.

Also if you think BTNs raising range is weaker than normal here, and this is going to happen a somewhat decent frequency isnt raising flop after the cbet better?

You really think so.
This is actually a spot I fold because implied odds of hitting our flush arent that high.

My rationale is that I think BTNs range is usually strong here (whereas in reality it might not be), and he will expect our range when calling flop to be Ax and FD, and we dont get much value on turned FD. Maybe both these stipulations are incorrect though. This is somewhere Im unsure about.

Also if you think BTNs raising range is weaker than normal here, and this is going to happen a somewhat decent frequency isnt raising flop after the cbet better?

Given that he might just take a step at the pot and that we still beat pretty much every non pair hand, I think calling seems fine. Our implied odds arent amazing and we are out of position, thats true. But I think the combination of pot equity and the chance to win without hitting a club makes it a call.

We have almost the best non-paired hand (besides KQ). Vs any UNDERpair we have 15-outer, so over 50% chance to outdraw them till the river. I think we do have SDV.

I doubt AJ raises here with that sizing. And even if, you're targeting only 9 combos (I'd say 5-6 max in reality), whereas he will fold those to your shove and call it off with 13 combos:
{ 99-88,A9s-A8s,98s } - your equity vs that range is 30.51%

With 50% fold equity the EV of your 3b shove will be $4.3, NOT including the rake, so I assume this is ~~ breakeven point. Not sure if you can reach 50% FEQ. You also look like a draw after calling the initial UNDERbet and then shoving over the raise and I wouldn't be surprised if Villain would look you up with AQ/AJ. And this would destroy your EV.

i meant raising the initial $4 underbet. i didn't think AJ would raise, but we might be able to fold out hands as strong as that with brls.