$200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
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Hero (UTG): $201.75
Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG with T 9
Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, BTN calls $7, SB calls $6, 1 fold
Flop: ($23.00) 3 2 J (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16.00, BTN calls $16, SB folds
Turn: ($55.00) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $45.00, BTN calls $45
River: ($145.00) 5 (2 players)
Hero ? ? ?
SB: random fish, I don't have many hands on him
BTN: same player from the KTs hand
26/22/2.4/28/49 | VPIP/PFR/AF/WTSD/W$SD
Fold to C-Bet F/T/R: 31 / 33 / 42
AFq F/T/R: 46 / 45 / 27
- Bet Sizing Tell ~~ hand strength
- Pot controls TPGK IP in 3bp
- one and done w/ AIR
- floats A-high OOP
- can't fold NFD+2 OC on paired in 3bp to raise OTT
I c-bet with the intention of barreling on every 8, 9, T, Q, K, A, in order to move him off his small pocket pairs.
Great turn card for me, I bet big to set up a river shove, which should generate some additional fold equity.
I missed, but I am considering bluffing here. Bluff has to work 48.5% of the time.
Combos that won't fold:
- 22, 33 (6)
- JJ (2 -> I discount one combo, because he 3b 8-9% vs EP)
- QJs (2)
- Ad4d (1)
not sure about AJ/AQs combos, say 3 of it might call
Combos that should fold
- AJ (12)
- AQs (3 - without AQss)
- I substract 3 combos, because I assumed 3 of them could possibly call)
- KTdd (1)
We have 13 combos so far, giving us 48.1% FEQ. KJs/JTs are possible as well and then we have over 50% fold equity.
Bluff or give up?