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NL200 T9s bluff OTR?

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StackHunter

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2643 posts
Joined 09/2010

$200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $260.20
BTN: $468.45
SB: $196.00
BB: $206.00
Hero (UTG): $201.75
MP: $225.20

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG with T Diamond 9 Diamond
Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, BTN calls $7, SB calls $6, 1 fold

Flop: ($23.00) 3 Heart 2 Diamond J Club (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16.00, BTN calls $16, SB folds

Turn: ($55.00) Q Diamond (2 players)
Hero bets $45.00, BTN calls $45

River: ($145.00) 5 Spade (2 players)
Hero ? ? ?

SB: random fish, I don't have many hands on him

BTN: same player from the KTs hand


26/22/2.4/28/49 | VPIP/PFR/AF/WTSD/W$SD

Fold to C-Bet F/T/R: 31 / 33 / 42
AFq F/T/R: 46 / 45 / 27
WWSF: 55%

- Bet Sizing Tell ~~ hand strength
- Pot controls TPGK IP in 3bp
- one and done w/ AIR
- floats A-high OOP
- can't fold NFD+2 OC on paired in 3bp to raise OTT


Flop
I c-bet with the intention of barreling on every 8, 9, T, Q, K, A, Diamond in order to move him off his small pocket pairs.

Turn
Great turn card for me, I bet big to set up a river shove, which should generate some additional fold equity.

River
I missed, but I am considering bluffing here. Bluff has to work 48.5% of the time.

Combos that won't fold:
- 22, 33 (6)
- JJ (2 -> I discount one combo, because he 3b 8-9% vs EP)
- QJs (2)
- Ad4d (1)
not sure about AJ/AQs combos, say 3 of it might call
______________
14 combos

Combos that should fold
- AJ (12)
- AQs (3 - without AQss)
- I substract 3 combos, because I assumed 3 of them could possibly call)
- KTdd (1)
We have 13 combos so far, giving us 48.1% FEQ. KJs/JTs are possible as well and then we have over 50% fold equity.

Bluff or give up?

Posted 9 months ago

Prologion

Avatar for Prologion

2079 posts
Joined 03/2010

I think that many combos which you have listed which would fold OTR, would already be folding in a decent % OTF cause your 2ndbarell loos strong vs. a pretty strong callingrange OTF (cause there`s a fish behind)

Also your valuejammingrange should be therrefore pretty narrow OTR - hence it is in theory enough to have only little bluffcombos.
Guess it is ok to jam here., anyways - would give up with other busted draws, such as NutFDs and AdKd... cause with those you would block some combos of the hands you wanna make to fold....

Posted 9 months ago

7GramRocks

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64 posts
Joined 07/2012


Combos that should fold
- AJ (12)
- AQs (3 - without AQss)
- I substract 3 combos, because I assumed 3 of them could possibly call)
- KTdd (1)
We have 13 combos so far, giving us 48.1% FEQ. KJs/JTs are possible as well and then we have over 50% fold equity.

Bluff or give up?



He's flatting on the button with a fish in the sb. Does he have KQ, QTs in his ranges too. Is he auto 3betting AK?

Posted 9 months ago

AstonMartin

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960 posts
Joined 08/2009

^^ he is folding (at least he should) all those hands OTF so it doesnt really matter

Posted 9 months ago

7GramRocks

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64 posts
Joined 07/2012

^^ he is folding (at least he should) all those hands OTF so it doesnt really matter



he folds to cbets 31%. Probably closer to 20% IP / 40% OOP. So, although he *SHOULD* fold the flop, how does he construct a folding a range here? What is Villain's perception of Hero?

Posted 9 months ago

Prologion

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2079 posts
Joined 03/2010

he folds to cbets 31%. Probably closer to 20% IP / 40% OOP. So, although he *SHOULD* fold the flop, how does he construct a folding a range here? What is Villain's perception of Hero?



though he imo should have not a high freq. OTF with which he tries to float the cbet w backdoorEQ, given that there`s a fish behind who will not fold OTF in a significant probability...

Posted 9 months ago

Grindcore

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2370 posts
Joined 11/2008

Your cbet should get more respect 3way than HU, Villain should fold his Jx on the turn since the river will be hell for him even if he has the best hand right now. So his range for calling twice seems like largely traps (or he's terrible, but then he might not even fold to a 3rd).

Posted 9 months ago

StackHunter

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2643 posts
Joined 09/2010

Your cbet should get more respect 3way than HU, Villain should fold his Jx on the turn since the river will be hell for him even if he has the best hand right now. So his range for calling twice seems like largely traps (or he's terrible, but then he might not even fold to a 3rd).



I gave up OTR and he showed up with A Heart J Diamond.

Posted 9 months ago




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