Prologion
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Adriano85
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I would go for 75 OTT and 120 OTR. Fish will still call with AJ,QJ,QT and other draws OTT. I think its better to make it big OTT (since fish likes to see all cards) and smaller OTR because the pot will be bigger and the fish will call a small river bet more often because of the size of the pot. I don't understand your flop raise when you say donking reg is air heavy. Is he really donking into 2 players with very low equity? If that is true, why would you raise?
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MaskedManQc
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His donking range is likely a Jx hand, QTs, strong
draws and 9x. All his overpairs 3 bet pre and I don't think he will take this line with only a gutshot. I am not sure he is leading vs 2 with complete air, especially with a fish in the pot. I would expect him to do it with a depolarized range considering the weak player in the pot.
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Prologion
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I don't understand your flop raise when you say donking reg is air heavy. Is he really donking into 2 players with very low equity? If that is true, why would you raise?
cause imp there`s a ton of value to isolate the fish.
Just think that at this point it is likely more +ev to decide to targe the fish.
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Adriano85
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Prologion
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Ok if that is your plan I would go for a bigger turn bet so we have a small river bet left that he is going to call very often.
agree
what would be the wost hand you would like to iso_sqz-raise the fish with, on the flop?
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Steppin Razor
Section 9
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I almost agree with you, prologion. Isolating the fish is fine, but I like the flop raise vs the reg too. He may have air a lot (BDs), but he has some draws too. And you would be subsidizing his and/or the fish's draws if you just called.
What's your range for the fish?
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terp
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this hand + this board + two ppl putting money in --> flop raise looks pretty standard. reg would have to be donking some really awful air and fish would need to autopeel like 55 here for me to start flatting.
that turn card is pretty good for you, but you want to carefully keep getting value from his Jx hands. going 65/all in lays him two good prices. fish are pretty bad at thinking several streets at a time, so this kind of installment plan pricing will help you get paid better.
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direstraights
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His donking range is likely a Jx hand, QTs, strong
draws and 9x. All his overpairs 3 bet pre and I don't think he will take this line with only a gutshot. I am not sure he is leading vs 2 with complete air, especially with a fish in the pot. I would expect him to do it with a depolarized range considering the weak player in the pot.
+1, leading air into a fish and a regular represents a depolarized range more often than not, so you're raising for value vs both the reg's range and the fishes range when you do this and you should expect both of them to call you very often (the reg always, the fish depending on how he evaluates his hand strength and pot odds).
Anybody have any thoughts on shoving the turn, I think it may get all 3 stacks into the middle immediately at 100bb (I know you have more than 100bb obv.)? I actually prefer betting the turn bigger and underbetting the river, reason being the fish is probably bet size insensitive and if the reg has 2 pair or a pair and straight draws he'll probably pay the max hoping the fish over calls and then crying calls on the river to a small bet with show down value.
I mean I guess under betting the pot on the turn in order to bet the pot on the river is "standard," but I think there's some better exploitative bet sizing to consider here. Villain doesn't really have that many flush draws he'd check/call with the fish behind here vs a small(er) bet that are +EV with a paired board IMO so there's not a lot of his range we're getting value from by trying to include them into his turn calling range?
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Adriano85
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NoWayFolding
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direstraights
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Why should we ever bet small OTT to be able to bet big OTR?
In this case or in general? Because in general, we bet small on the turn in order to increase the opponent's calling range and bet big on the river to increase our fold equity vs said range.
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Adriano85
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In this case or in general?
In this case it's bad to take that line on this board.
Even if the board is not that drawy I don't see advantages of a small turn bet and big river bet.
You said it was standard but I have no idea why this is/hould be standard. you know what I mean?
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kReATivE
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Adriano85
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Does it make that big of a difference to bet $65 OTT/shove $128 into $236 or betting $75 OTT/shove $118 into $256 in the eyes of a fish? Reg, sure I can see the argument.
In this example the difference is not that big in $ but there are some spots where our river sizing might get more calls or folds. Also we want our opponents to have less implied odds when they are drawing etc etc. The sizing is a results of our ideas behind the bet and villains range.
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