Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Villain was tight with 3% 3b over 175 hands, so I thought there's value is set mining here. When he bets the flop, I think he has everything he has in his preflop 3b range which consists of JJ+, AK.

Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1831795
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Hero (CO): $116.18
BTN: $125.50
SB: $108.30
BB: $88.69
UTG: $100.00
MP: $96.50

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 3 3
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, SB raises to $10, 1 fold, Hero calls $7

Flop: ($21.00) 2 4 5 (2 players)
SB bets $14

Considering I thought there was value in set mining, this is probably not a good spot to bluff, but we have a ton of equity with SD + back door FD.

Peel once?

Yes

Board: 2d 4h 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.446% 45.71% 00.73% 18102 290.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 53.554% 52.82% 00.73% 20917 290.50 { 3c3h }

I'm not sure if I like seeing a card OOP here. Whats your plan on the turn with the different situations that can come up? Also where does his bet sizing leave him if he continues on the turn and you maintain similar equity?

Hard to fold now but I'd fold pre, 3% is JJ+ / AK or could be KK+/AK/some bluffs and I don't think you're stacking him as much as you need (just in my head estimating you need to stack about 60% the time you hit a set, not including rake and the times you end up losing the hand), plus you run into spots like this.

Uhm, I am not sure if there is value in set mining 100 bbs deep...I'd fold pre. With stacks $120++ I might consider calling here.

As played yes, peel once - you have some equity.

I'm not sure if I like seeing a card OOP here. Whats your plan on the turn with the different situations that can come up? Also where does his bet sizing leave him if he continues on the turn and you maintain similar equity?

We're IP

Uhm, I am not sure if there is value in set mining 100 bbs deep...I'd fold pre. With stacks $120++ I might consider calling here.

I think getting better than 12:1 implied odds is plenty if we think the player is 3b a tight enough range. OOP I'm snap folding.