Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

FIXED: http://weaktight.com/4862280


So, Ipoker hand hand histories suck and are complete shit when it comes to posting hands on Deuces Cracked. No that I got that off my chest, I want to know what people think about the above hand. I posted and linked the hand above to weaktight.com and hid the results.

Before I get into this, don't speculate that I lost the hand simply because I posted. As you can see, we we're deep in the hand and my question revolves around whether this is too thin a bet in a deep 3bet pot or if I should bet big or small for value considering how deep we are.

Let's get to the nitty gritty. Villain is tagish and doesn't seem out of line. In fact, though I only have 10 hands on him, I would guess him to be a passive reg. So, I 3bet him IP with a nice starting hand of course.

Flop: Standard value bet when I hit my K on K8J. Ok, nothing to see here

Turn: We make trips with top kicker. We have a monster turn and after he calls the flop, his range appears to be hands like AJ, QQ, KQ, KJ, QTs, 88, JJ, some discounted QJ/JT hands and perhaps a some combos of 9Ts.

River: This is interesting to think about considering the hands above. It would seem that any bet I make only folds out missed draws and gets called mostly by hands listed above that beat me (I might get a crying call from AJ and even more discounted QJ/JT hands). I would imagine that even a slowplayed AA should fold this river, right? PS. Getting check-raised here would drive me mad.

What are your thoughts, folks?

No thoughts?

A lot hinges on the other guys preflop range, what do you estimate he is doing this with?

Very difficult spot - I hate this but I would probably check.

this is probably not correct from a game theory perspective, but I just hate being bluffed off a hand this strong.

The other question is - for this who advocate betting - are you bet/folding??? Having put so much money in its hard to fold given the odds you are getting, even though you know you are 95% always beat.

The other question is - for this who advocate betting - are you bet/folding??? Having put so much money in its hard to fold given the odds you are getting, even though you know you are 95% always beat.

doesn't this answer your own question?

A lot hinges on the other guys preflop range, what do you estimate he is doing this with?

Well, I gave my thoughts on his range of hands by the turn. It seems the hands he has by the river are almost all whiffed bluffs or hands that got the by the river. So, with that logic, checking the river seems like the best line. However, I posted this to see if I was missing something in my analysis that would sway me towards value betting or bet folding. The poster above wrote that we are mostly beat when we bet this river, so if we bet it's a pretty gross bet/fold but, at the same time, I am wondering whether we are missing value from anything I missed by checking.

So, Ipoker hand hand histories suck and are complete shit when it comes to posting hands on Deuces Cracked.

Do you have HM? Right click on the hand, select "View Selected Hand Histories", copy what's inside, paste into the DC Converter and voila.


Preflop
I'd 3b more when deep, you are more likely to get called. $10-$11 is better. Vs 4b I prob flat IP.

Flop
Value, value, value. I'd bet $12-$13, AQ/AJ will call anyway.

Turn
You have immediately increased your sizing - it looks like you like the K. On this card I'd bet 50-60% of the pot to keep his Jx hands, also QT/T9.

River
This is a bad card. QQ, T9s and KQ got there. AJ won't call you. I think you have almost 0% equity vs anything he continues with. Check behind.

Good analysis and it's about what I ended up thinking after my session when I was reviewing the hand.

Do you have HM? Right click on the hand, select "View Selected Hand Histories", copy what's inside, paste into the DC Converter and voila.

I've tried everything. I've gone into HM, right clicked my hands and have tried both "copy" and "copy with stats". Neither option seems to work on DC's HH converter.

Preflop
I'd 3b more when deep, you are more likely to get called. $10-$11 is better. Vs 4b I prob flat IP.

I agree about the bet sizing. I was playing 4 tables of speed poker on ipoker and I think I initially missed just how deep we were until after we reached the flop

Flop
Value, value, value. I'd bet $12-$13, AQ/AJ will call anyway.

I'm with you on betting a little larger/exploitably on this board vs his range

Turn
You have immediately increased your sizing - it looks like you like the K. On this card I'd bet 50-60% of the pot to keep his Jx hands, also QT/T9.

I usually play balanced here but I went slightly larger because I felt his calling range on this particular board would be pretty inelastic (ie. I thought he would call all his draws, weaker KX hands and QQ here regardless of how balanced my bet size was). Too ambitious?

River
This is a bad card. QQ, T9s and KQ got there. AJ won't call you. I think you have almost 0% equity vs anything he continues with. Check behind.

Yeah, I'm inclined to agree here about not being able to get much value on this particular river card.

Thanks for your thoughts on the hand.