Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Villain is 28/27 in almost 3k hands, 4 AF, 15% 4bet, F to 3b 54% f cbet 3b pot 48. We have an aggressive dynamic/history, 3betting/4betting each other a lot - I stopped bluff 4betting him pretty much because he started to shove a lot.

He is calling a lot of my 3bets though, I expect he can't have sets except for 44 as he'd try to get it in with 99+, expect him to call with SCs, all broadways (offsuit too) Axs (some will 4bet), small pairs, AXo too (called a 3bet with A9o oop once)

Post flop he's been generally straight-forward, his raise cbet is really low - 6%, which makes me want to fold. I do however have a note that he cbet/shoved over my raise with 2nd pair top kicker (KJ) on AJx in a 3bet pot, I guess he could have been tilted too. This makes me want to call.

JT and KQ are definitely in his range for getting to the turn, can I count on him playing them this way with a high enough frequency and get it in? The rest of his range as I see it is 44, all 2 pairs that don't include the 4, KTo, KTs, T8s. I'd love to include some Axs redraws as well but seems like a stretch considering his low raise %.

UTG: €109.95
CO: €116.61
Hero (BTN): €117.36
SB: €149.83
BB: €114.25

SB posts SB €0.50, BB posts BB €1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: €1.50) Hero has Q A

fold, CO raises to €2.87, Hero raises to €8.30, fold, fold, CO calls €5.43

Flop: (€18.10, 2 players) 9 Q 4
CO checks, Hero bets €13.00, CO calls €13.00

Turn: (€44.10, 2 players) J
CO checks, Hero bets €23.00, CO raises to €95.31 and is all-in, Hero

Not a great turn card but wouldnt fold given stats.

Too many shit like QT/JT/KQ/T9/98 to fold on this turn card.

Also, a low flop raise cbet does not mean that he is not likely to bluffraise turn. I would argue it mostly means that he likes to keep his range uniform on flops, when most hands can actually play call OR raise profitable. But when he is oop on the turn with a bare NFD (asssuming he will c/c A high often enough on flop) I think you can not dismiss him jaming that.

TPTK in 3b pot against aggro dude I would get it in.