Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Villain seemed like a reg but I didnt have any relevant reads on him, what I'm wondering is against the general population would you say shipping for value is +EV here?

I figured if I ship for value I'm hoping to get called by TT-QQ and obviously he can have some Ax too, except I'm not sure how tight people usually call in these spots. So would it be reasonable to assume that the majority of 6max regs will call TT-QQ here?


Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1813263
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP: $235.69
CO: $311.00
BTN: $205.00
SB: $196.00
Hero (BB): $200.00
UTG: $636.78

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with K K
UTG raises to $6, 4 folds, Hero raises to $20, UTG calls $14

Flop: ($41.00) A 2 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $20, UTG calls $20

Turn: ($81.00) A (2 players)
Hero bets $41, UTG calls $41

River: ($163.00) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $119 all in?

Final Pot: $163.00

this is bad

why do you think he can hero call 10's-q's here?


seems like you get him to fold when your ahead, call when your behind most of the time. seems counter productive imo

It's not the craziest spot to go for thin value, but I think you need a read that villain likes to hero call in order for this to be +EV, and/or have some kind of special dynamic with him. In order to have a better hand more than 50% of the time when he calls, you have to be pretty damn sure he's calling with pocket pairs.

It depends a lot on how often you 3b and what he thinks your 3b range is and how often you barrel. If you 3b a lot with Ax hands as bluffs, then a ton of your range hits this board.

Without any reads I would assume the following:

1) Villain will fold 88-QQto a big bet on the river, especially since the flush draw got there.

2) If you check to him, he will check behind with 88-KK, and bet Ax, sets, and flushes for value.

So, it's probably safe to check fold the river.

I could also see an argument for betting small and folding to a shove.

check fold river really has no downside, almost nobody at nl 200 is capable, and by that i mean, will actually turn pockets into bluff (allthough they should)
river Vbet would be close even on a brick river, but the FD getting there makes him beating you more likeely, and more importantly, makes your Vrange wider. I would not be stunned if some ppl fold Axs to your river shove even.

check fold river really has no downside, almost nobody at nl 200 is capable, and by that i mean, will actually turn pockets into bluff (allthough they should)
river Vbet would be close even on a brick river, but the FD getting there makes him beating you more likeely, and more importantly, makes your Vrange wider. I would not be stunned if some ppl fold Axs to your river shove even.

+1

check fold river really has no downside, almost nobody at nl 200 is capable, and by that i mean, will actually turn pockets into bluff (allthough they should)
river Vbet would be close even on a brick river, but the FD getting there makes him beating you more likeely, and more importantly, makes your Vrange wider. I would not be stunned if some ppl fold Axs to your river shove even.

+1

Shipping for value here would require some super specific reads, which you dont have. Ur never getting bluffed if u chk imo

More combos of Ax than QQ-TT so valuye shoving is bad.

Flop and turn play are fine.
River is a 100% check.

Check-call if he can ever have enough value combos on turn now turned into bluff maybe some QQ, 7x type hands.

If river blanks shoving, c/c c/f river is a lot better.

Depending on how wide the villain opens UTG => how wide your 3bet range is in this spot.. This hand is either fine or misplayed...

Nice, thanks for the comments, got a better idea of what most regs will call with now, as a default at least, obviously will be adjusting if that changes .

I think 3betting here is probably a leak fwiw, otherwise I agree with Improva.

I think 3betting here is probably a leak fwiw

So would you call with your entire range or something? And I guess only 3bet until you have build up more 3bet dynamic?

So would you call with your entire range or something? And I guess only 3bet until you have build up more 3bet dynamic?

In the SB, I'm calling AK, QQ+ 100% of the time because I think there's more value vs. BB squeezes than vs UTG's raise/call and 4bet/call range as a standard, because either the UTG will raise/call or 4bet/call wider vs the squeeze than he will vs the cold 3bet and both players will perceive your range as capped to AQ, JJ- when you either 4bet the BB after the UTG folds, 5bet all in after the UTG 4bets or over call to "set mine."

FWIW, this is an empirical observation at 200nl, 3bet/5betting vs UTG/MP from the blinds with AK, QQ- is a net loss to the rake.

In the BB, calling AK, QQ+ doesn't have the same value as in the SB without the squeeze dynamic, however in the BB you're calling 88-22 to set mine now so you're adding AK, QQ+ to balance the addition of weaker hands in your range. There may be an argument for only calling AK, QQ and 3betting KK+ if your opponent's UTG range is wide enough to 3bet bluff as well, where getting KK+ in vs AK, QQ+ is +EV as well as getting the opponent to fold XX when you bluf with KQo, AJo, Axs, maybe Kxs type hands within a reasonable, albeit exploitative, frequency.

If I were disregarding balance and exploiting SSNL, I'd just flat my premiums and 3bet bluff 100% vs a wide enough UTG/MP range and trust a ~3% 3bet range of 100% bluffs would go unchallenged by anything less than a 4bet of AK, QQ+ and a raise/call of AQs, JJ with AQo, AJs, KQs, TT pushing it vs a spewtard or 99- vs a set miner laying out dead money for Cbets.

As a consequence, whenever the opponent 3bets you in UTG/MP from the blinds, 4bet/calling is -EV compared to raise/calling with AK, QQ.

None of this applies with a caller, your perceived range for squeezing vs the UTG is significantly looser than it is for cold 3betting.

Obviously you adjust as the game progresses as you see fit (or need to) but getting dealt QQ in the blinds vs an UTG raise from a regular and 3betting him without history is as good as lighting money on fire IMO.

Thanks for the reply and I agree with most of it, what I've been doing now is basically only 3betting KK+ and 3bet bluffing vs utg and just call QQ and AK, but I guess you can take it one step further and only 3bet bluff without value 3betting at all.