Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $98.50 (98.5 bb)
SB: $210.94 (210.9 bb)
BB: $101.50 (101.5 bb)
UTG: $91 (91 bb)
MP: $85.50 (85.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $250.46 (250.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5 K
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6.50) 9 6 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.34, BB calls $4.34

Turn: ($15.18) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $11.50, BB raises to $25.90, Hero folds

Villain is a coach on another poker site. He plays zoom 100/200 usually 4 tables of each.
I have ~250 hands on him. he plays :24/20, AF:5.7 (5,11,4), WTSD:23

I didn't have time bank left so I let it go but I was thinking about a shove when he x/r that turn, simply bc his value range is very narrow because he doesn't have any Qx in his range apart from QsJs (he 3B AQ pre flop).

He knows that I would barrel that turn card super often (if not 100%) so it looks like a nice spot to throw in a cheap bluff. I have no idea if he can think about this bluff spot playing 8 tables of zoom though.

Let's do the calcs on a shove and see how much fold equity I need.

When I shove I expect to get called by 9x and also by his JsTs, JhTh (I assume for now that he would donk or x/r his nut spade flush draw on flop)

Board: 9h9s6sQh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 25.23% 25.23% 0.00% { Ks5s }
MP3 74.77% 74.77% 0.00% { 99, A9s, T9s, 98s, QsJs, JhTh, JsTs }


Let's call X the Fold Equity I need

Equity = 52.58*X+ (1-X) [-94.16*0.75.99+ 0.2401*(52.58+68.26)]

That gives a Fold equity of 42.8%.

{ 99, A9s, T9s, 98s, QsJs, JhTh, JsTs } is only 10 combos.

So does he have 7 combos of bluffs? I think it's pretty easy to find 7 combos that he would raise/fold



If I add some combos draw in his range:

Board: 9h9s6sQh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 31.82% 31.82% 0.00% { Ks5s }
MP3 68.18% 68.18% 0.00% { 99, A9s, T9s, 98s, QsJs, JhTh, JsTs, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7h6h }

I need a fold equity of 32.6%
{ 99, A9s, T9s, 98s, QsJs, JhTh, JsTs, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7h6h } is 13 combos and I would need only 6 bluffs in his range to make the shove profitable.

So to me it looks like a shove on the turn. What do you guys think?

bump

It would help to know how often you cbet and barrel in general and what he thinks of you.
Of course he doesn't rep many legitimate hands, but he knows that too and he might not use this line as a bluff.
It's an interesting spot. Next time you should just shove and report back the result, so we all can learn