Poker Stars $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1807429
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Hero (UTG): $124.25
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with T T
Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, BTN calls $3, 2 folds
Flop: ($7.50) A K Q (2 players)
Hero bets $5.00, BTN calls $5
Turn: ($17.50) T (2 players)
Hero bets $12.00, BTN calls $12
River: ($41.50) A (2 players)
Villain is tight-passive preflop and plays 20/10 with a 0% 3-bet over 500 hands. 12% call open otb, 55% fold to cbet and aggression by street is 40/23/36. Going through my database, I've seen him slowplay the nut flush and a flopped set against other opponents then lead out on the river.
What's our river line? Would it be bad to bet/fold the river? I think if he raises river it's almost impossible for him to be bluffing and his value range is probably just better boats - he's passive and I'm not bet-calling worse than Jx on the river, so I don't think he can value shove Jx if I bet.