$100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1802680
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Hero (CO): $100.00
BTN: $64.20 - VPIP: 90, PFR: 27, 3B: 21, AF: 0.9, Hands: 51
SB: $118.62 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2.6, Hands: 1804
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with K K
2 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, BTN raises to $8.25, SB calls $7.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $21.25, BTN calls $13, SB calls $13
[b]Flop: ($64.75) J 4 Q (3 players)
SB bets $32.37
BB is somewhat of a TAG reg who i have a small history with mostly at 50nl
his stats are shown above, some added stats ar CC3b 8.6 F3b 53 F4b 33.3 dnk/fold 50%
i dont really need to elaborate on BTN as hes just a come along in this hand...his stats clearly indicate profit$$$
anyhow, i think with this added dynamic the Tag reg may be slightly wider than usual as he will expect me to fold from the CO alot..
so obviously 4betting for value/or trying to induce jam from the BTN fish(getting it in vs this villian on pretty much any flop)
when both villians flat i can be pretty certain to remmove AA out of both their ranges as i would expect an insta jam from either of them in this dynamic and KK is also unlikey as i have it, and it may have jammed pre also
when we get to the flop, its almost the worst flop i wanna see (not quite the worst lol)
when TAG villian dnks half pot i can assume sets are unlikely as im cbetting my whole range here bar 3 combos of AK suited, i also have a specific note from TAG villian in a similar spot (cc AKs x/r 2p AKT hero (TT).) this not was from a 3bet pot but i think this is his line for value and the dnk a semibluff, his dnking range still has great equity here vs my range......
the problm for me here is jamming vs the range i assume he has is -EV but a call is +EV but i feel if i call the im committed and its going in anyway, and then of course folding is neutral.....
now, there is 1 huge variable in this situation which affects my equity greatly,
this range QQ-JJ, AK jamming vs this range -EV
and this range QQ-TT, AK jamming vs this range +EV
whats your take on this and what do you think the higest EV play here is and why????
obviously the fish plays a huge part in th EV of this spot.....i would like to hear some thoughts on that also..