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$100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1802680
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MP: $116.28
Hero (CO): $100.00
BTN: $64.20 - VPIP: 90, PFR: 27, 3B: 21, AF: 0.9, Hands: 51
SB: $118.62 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2.6, Hands: 1804
BB: $65.94
UTG: $129.35

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with K K
2 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, BTN raises to $8.25, SB calls $7.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $21.25, BTN calls $13, SB calls $13

[b]Flop: ($64.75) J 4 Q (3 players)
SB bets $32.37

BB is somewhat of a TAG reg who i have a small history with mostly at 50nl

his stats are shown above, some added stats ar CC3b 8.6 F3b 53 F4b 33.3 dnk/fold 50%

i dont really need to elaborate on BTN as hes just a come along in this hand...his stats clearly indicate profit$$$

anyhow, i think with this added dynamic the Tag reg may be slightly wider than usual as he will expect me to fold from the CO alot..
so obviously 4betting for value/or trying to induce jam from the BTN fish(getting it in vs this villian on pretty much any flop)
when both villians flat i can be pretty certain to remmove AA out of both their ranges as i would expect an insta jam from either of them in this dynamic and KK is also unlikey as i have it, and it may have jammed pre also

when we get to the flop, its almost the worst flop i wanna see (not quite the worst lol)

when TAG villian dnks half pot i can assume sets are unlikely as im cbetting my whole range here bar 3 combos of AK suited, i also have a specific note from TAG villian in a similar spot (cc AKs x/r 2p AKT hero (TT).) this not was from a 3bet pot but i think this is his line for value and the dnk a semibluff, his dnking range still has great equity here vs my range......
the problm for me here is jamming vs the range i assume he has is -EV but a call is +EV but i feel if i call the im committed and its going in anyway, and then of course folding is neutral.....

now, there is 1 huge variable in this situation which affects my equity greatly,

this range QQ-JJ, AK jamming vs this range -EV
and this range QQ-TT, AK jamming vs this range +EV

whats your take on this and what do you think the higest EV play here is and why????

obviously the fish plays a huge part in th EV of this spot.....i would like to hear some thoughts on that also..

Firstly I probably would have 4 bet larger since u give pretty good pot odds for fishy btn station to call and then price the reg in. I'm not sure if villian is donking TT here considering the fish behind. So basically the QQ JJ and AKs range u assigned is pretty accurate and I think this is a tough fold.

i agree with making the 4bet larger, prob round 24-26 is what it should have been, i dont think this would have changed much, i think its likely TAG villian could be here with TT given the dynamic otherwise i doubt it

Why are you raising to 2.25bb pre? +1 on the bigger 4bet, the fish will always all/shove when he 3bets so fast play.

I think his range is JJ/QQ and discount combos for AKs, i would assume thats in his c/r range. I cant help but feel like this is the text book fish in the hand so im donking my set for value incase the regular doesnt cbet play.

Unless you have seen it before he isnt spazz donking. Tough hand. fold flop

when in doubt.....OUT

Why are you raising to 2.25bb pre? p

half pot misclick, supposed to be 3/4 which makes it closer to 3, still just taking shot with 25BI so im keeping sizes small as to risk as little as i can at ths point and to get the feel here, the player pool isnt alot different just a few more regs and a little bit more aggression,

sometimes i see fish get stacked at 50nl, leave a table then join 100nl to try get their money back lol

How can you fold overpair in a 3way 4bet pot without a soul read? I would be fist pump jamming here and double fist pumping if SB showed up with AKs JJ or QQ because then I'd know he's a fish and can adjust accordingly to win my stack back plus much more. Poker is not about 1 stack, this is why we have BR for.

Folding is a huge mistake considering the randomness you can see here. I'm sure the call becomes +EV soon as you add in a few combos of just AQ even if JJ and QQ is not even somewhat discounted.

ugh, this is really gross from a pretty nitty player, i expect to see akss, and qq/jj alot and am having trouble thinking of any other hands he would play this way -> i would fold.

blah, obv he is playing poorly taking this line with anything. i agree with you that it's a mandatory stack off given odds and the few random combos of AQ or whatever he needs, but i'm not thrilled at all.

when in doubt.....OUT

this makes no sense

i think he means fold? it's pretty bad to have random maxims that stand in the place of logic...

i'd also like to add that the presence of the button makes this a higher EV spot for us. fish like this are calling flop with as bad as 98 and sometimes like A5 when they get here like this.

How can you fold overpair in a 3way 4bet pot without a soul read? I would be fist pump jamming here and double fist pumping if SB showed up with AKs JJ or QQ because then I'd know he's a fish and can adjust accordingly to win my stack back plus much more. Poker is not about 1 stack, this is why we have BR for.

Folding is a huge mistake considering the randomness you can see here. I'm sure the call becomes +EV soon as you add in a few combos of just AQ even if JJ and QQ is not even somewhat discounted.

ya i considered AQs also i wouldnt rule it out, but that being said i also dont want to just assume to add hands just to become +EV

also on this board i doubt the fish is evr folding to a jam, jamming is only -EV against QQ-JJ AsKs if fish folds and TAG villian calls, the fact that fish mostlikely wont fold will make it hugely +EV...?? No???

its funny i was hoping that you and Terp may comment on this thread

blah, obv he is playing poorly taking this line with anything. i agree with you that it's a mandatory stack off given odds and the few random combos of AQ or whatever he needs, but i'm not thrilled at all.

i wasnt too thrilled either at the time of this decision ...lol

half pot misclick, supposed to be 3/4 which makes it closer to 3, still just taking shot with 25BI so im keeping sizes small as to risk as little as i can at ths point and to get the feel here,

This doesn't make any sense. How are you risking less money by making sub-optimal plays? You should definitely be making your opens larger with a guy that has 90 VPIP OTB.