Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

UTG: $99.25 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 33, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 6
MP: $53.41 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 20, 3B: 6, AF: 5.0, Hands: 90
Hero (CO): $50.00 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 5, AF: 2.8, Hands: 24670
BTN: $40.00 - VPIP: 37, PFR: 20, 3B: 0, AF: 0.7, Hands: 131
SB: $104.59 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 22, 3B: 9, AF: 9.3, Hands: 371
BB: $20.75 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 6, AF: 0.0, Hands: 38

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with A J
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) A 7 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.36, BTN calls $2.36

Turn: ($8.47) K (2 players)
Hero bets $5.00, BTN calls $5

River: ($18.47) 4 (2 players)
Hero?

Villain seems to be a rec. player. Bit lost on the river. Don't see many worse Ace in his range. He only folded to 3 out 12 cbets so far but still a small sample. Should we bet for value or c/f?

I'm looking at his stats, and wondering if he flats a lot of suited aces here.

With that in mind, I am tempted to go for thin value/blocker bet approx $10. I haven't played 50nl in a while though.

Agree with SavingForBenz, such a bet seems good.
He has such a big gap between preflop stats that he probably isn't too good indeed, this should be a valuebet imo

agree with the guys above, i'd b/f 10

37/20 has all worse Ax in his range. This is rly close though, im not sure if they fold weak aces occationally. I would bet though, doesn't rly matter too much if they fold a few of the lower ones i don't think considering they will fold a few worse hands too, so bet can't be -EV i don't think.

Board: Ah 7d 9s Ks 4h

Hand 0: 45.161% { 99, 77, AQs-A2s, K9s, K7s, 97s, AQo-A2o}
Hand 1: 54.839% { AJo }

It looks like a check fold.

What do you think is the worst hand he would call with if you bet the river?

What do you think is the worst hand he would bet the river with when checked to?

It looks like a check fold.

What do you think is the worst hand he would call with if you bet the river?

What do you think is the worst hand he would bet the river with when checked to?

It's c/o vs a fish like btn, i would expect almost every Ax here.

Part of the trouble is that he seems SUPER passive, so it's hard to find hands that he can't have.

Part of the trouble is that he seems SUPER passive, so it's hard to find hands that he can't have.

Thats why I like making a smallish bet on river.

I agree with a small b/f to target the weaker Aces in his range. There are not that many but with the big gap between pfr and vpip he still have all weaker Aces in his range i guess. There are not many other hands he can have besides sets and something like T8.

I make a mistake in this hand and I really have to fix this leak vs passive opponent.

I checked the river, he bet 10, and I called!?!?!. He showed A9 and called 2 streets with top 2.

Now I know this it makes it even more a b/f.

can probably x/f the river. All of the hands that you would want to get value from will check behind on the river.

Although i can see the the b/f line as well and might like that better. If you bet small enough , he may actually look you up with Kx, which can be in his range regarding his low fold to cbet, and the fact that yo bet small on the turn.

Looks good if you bet/fold river for 10.

x/f would be so horrible.

Yes I played this terrible with c/c. This guy is so passive he will never bet a worse hand or bluff me.