Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Hey guys, played this hand today! Only 24 hands on the guy at the moment but I know he is onetabling and out of line preflop! He was playing like 54/45

I hate it when fish minraise the flop, it always makes me shit my pants! I've seen them do it so many times with sets. However he decides to check the turn, so I guess we can rule the sets out!
River brings another J and he bets. What do you guys think here ?

Boss, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

SB: $392 (196 bb)
Hero (BB): $471.66 (235.8 bb)
MP: $387.20 (193.6 bb)
CO: $421.36 (210.7 bb)
BTN: $224.22 (112.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A A
MP folds, CO raises to $4, BTN calls $4, SB folds, Hero raises to $20, CO calls $16, BTN folds

Flop: ($45) 7 J 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $30, CO raises to $60, Hero calls $30

Turn: ($165) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($165) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $100, Hero ??

Any reads on how he plays postflop? I know you've only played 24 hands with him, but stats like aggression frequency, fold/raise flop cbet, etc. might give some clues on whether he's an aggro spaz monkey. If he's been completely out of line postflop as well so far, I think 3-betting/ getting it in OTF is going to be +EV for you as he could easily have a lot worse. SPR is 8.91, so you theoretically aren't supposed to get it in with an overpair, and you shouldn't against most opponents, but it might be okay here. If he hasn't really been out of line postflop or you're just not sure, which is most likely the case given your sample size, flatting his raise his fine.

The river is pretty close and could go either way IMO. His line is weird, and I personally would look him up and take note. I don't think it's too big of a mistake either way though.

You guys agree he would bet straights, sets and 2p's on the turn right?

So on the river he is betting Jx or he is bluffing but I doubt he would minraise as bluff on the flop.

On the other hand, fish could do this with QQ as well..

Anyway, we have to be good 40% of the time to make profit.

I agree with you. This deep i think most of the time he´ll bet out his turned 2p+.

I also just call there because sometimes Villain shows up TT or QQ or stuff like that. But i really dont know

be aware you need 27% not 40

Ok thx for the input guys. I don't think it's a terrible call but not the best one either! So maybe it doesn't make a huge difference what I do. However he showed up with Q J

He has to be a really big fish to take this line as a bluff and he could easily have a J since he has min raise the flop for value before. And I would think fish like this tend to take wierd lines for value rather than as a bluff like this.

he reps jx but seems bad enough and out of line enough i would probably snap. imo people like this preflop are so polarized between having total shit or JX here a lot. So just note him and know in the future and use the note, but a good call imo

What do you think about leading the turn? I really don't want him to check back or have him bet 1/4 pot with Jx, TT, 98 and the like. As played I don't think a river call is terrible but I'd expect to lose very often. It's also just 24 hands. Getting it in 200BBs deep on this flop just because he appears spazzy over that small of a sample just seems terrible as I don't expect you to be ahead ever.

What is our range ???? this might clear things up.

call river. I wouldnt expect him to chk back a J ott after he value raises the flop. the fact that the river is another makes it even less likely.

if he's a bad agro fish he can def be doing something dumb like CIB flop w/ 9x for info and betting riv for value. he's most likely not even thinking about our range, just betting because he has a pair. call and take a note.

edit: i need to learn to read properly instead of skimming...didnt see it was a squeezed pot. I think the same still applies though vs a bad agro fish.

Well now you know he min raise toppest pairs

i'd donk turn versus a fish who can raise all kinds of stuff that will call a turn bet but check if given the option

river is a call once the hand plays out like this. you'd need a lot more hands and a great read that he is really, really passive to fold here