Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Not really wanting to discuss pre or flop as I think it gets interesting at turn.

I expect initial raiser to raise all of his strong hands and at least some of his air, which means he rarely has anything stronger than like some odd Q8s. I think that alone makes a stab on the turn profitable.

However, if I continue to barrel river, it does look as if I am fairly weak and missed a draw, and lets him play pretty easily with his bigger PP's. On the other hand, I thought that checking would allow him to bet with all his air/missed draws and go for what he thinks is thin value with a higher PP.

C/R only has to be good about half the time.

Like the line? Problems with reasoning? Is barrelling turn and river better?

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1141870
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $771.40
BTN: $994.10
SB: $261.70
Hero (BB): $200.00
UTG: $202.00
MP: $651.35

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with A 5
2 folds, CO raises to $6, 1 fold, SB calls $5, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($18.00) Q 8 7 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($18.00) 2 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, CO calls $12, SB folds

River: ($42.00) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $27, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $65

It doesn't make a lot of sense to me, but I doubt he's betting much for value here. Maybe JJ/TT. So he should be folding missed draws, but calling you with QJ and sometimes JJ/TT.

I'm not crazy about stabbing the turn without some sort of equity but I really like the river c/r. Though maybe I'm just a nit with wanting equity on the turn. SB probably always leads turn with any strong hands so will almost definitely fold and hero always bets the flop with anything strong so it's fine really. After hero calls the turn he's got a draw a huge amount of the time so I really like the c/r on the river, definitely prefer it to just barrelling, you can definitely take this line for value too. Well played.

turn is fine IMO

I cant see how this river checkraise can be anything other than +EV

DISCLAIMER: I play 25nl.

Villain should be betting all his Qx and better hands hands on that fairly drawy flop, right?

I agree that your turn bet could definitely look like a cheap attempt to steal the pot with something like a turned flush draw. When c/o calls, he really shouldn't have anything he's comfortable playing a big pot with, given how passive he's been. He should have something like 8x, 7x, PP's, maybe some draw.

When the turn bricks, do you have a read that villain is thinking/capable of going for thin value? If you do, I think you set it up perfectly to give him the chance to do so. If you also think he'll fold that thin value, you're golden.

My only (maybe simplistic?) question is what you are trying to rep with this bluff line is what value range you're trying to rep? If I were villain, it would look like you have either: a busted draw; a weirdly played set; 87. So your bluff range may be perceived as large compared to your value range and could convince a villain to bluff catch you?

OP could potentially play a set the same way, but also a decent amount of draws, so if im villain I may call here with JJ/TT.

OP could potentially play a set the same way, but also a decent amount of draws, so if im villain I may call here with JJ/TT.

That's sorta what I was getting at/questioning at the end of my post, wasn't sure if that line/dynamic changes somewhere between uNL and SSNL?

Ch-call is better than chraise (he ain`t vbetting pairs/sdvalue, you beat most bluffs) - when you bet, you rep vlittle value combos, and any hand that vbets the river from opponent side should call a raise, when so many draws miss (+ ppl are CSs)

i would bet the river though

I also like a river bet. He showed a bit of weakness on the flop, I'd be afraid of villain checking back if I had a big hand.

Also, if I were c/r'ing river for value or bluff I'd probably make it bigger.

you beat most bluffs)

most of his bluffs are going to be better Ace highs that had FDs on the turn, so check/call is pretty bad IMO.

Not a huge fan of C/C either.

As for leading out on river, do you really think any 8x/99-JJ are going to fold? In my mind, these are his strongest hands, and are probably about half of his range (other half is all the weird 9T and flush draw type hands). Betting is going to fold out all worse and get calls from all the better, whereas I'm ahead of all his air if it checks through and I can fold almost his entire range with a c/r despite not repping anything myself (think - would you feel comfortable calling 99 here?)

That is my thinking at least...I could be making some poor assumptions though so still definitely open to debate.

I can fold almost his entire range with a c/r despite not repping anything myself (think - would you feel comfortable calling 99 here?)

I don't think you fold out his value betting range, at least often enough to feel comfortable about counting on it. I think you fold out his bluffs, which IMO is the bigger part of his betting range. Better A highs, pairs turned into bluffs, and whiffed draws all fold. You probably don't need his vbs to fold ever to get 50%. Any vb/fold is gravy.

$24 on turn win the pot like 95% of the time

Line is weird and the raise is small, w/o history or a lot of respect villain is just going to call. I think you turned your bluff catcher into a value bet. You fold out his better ace high bluffs though, maybe sometimes.

In theory, your bluff line is consistent with your value line vs. a good regular who value bets thinly, but in practice your bluff line isn't consistent with your value line vs. a bad regular who doesn't value bet thinly because "they think that you think like they think" and therefore you'd bet the river for value and the bet turn, check/raise river line only confuses them into calling fwiw because it looks "bluffy."

Personally, I don't like bet turn, check river here with Ax because I think we turn our marginal showdown value into a bluff on the turn by betting (which is fine) and then we risk losing the hand by checking and either letting him check behind with superior showdown value or turn the bottom of his showdown value range into a bluff and accidentally value bet us. I think if you want him to fold JJ-99, 8x, 7x, Axss type hands, then bet turn, over bet river probably gets more folds then bet turn, check/raise river does at SSNL.

@Luke,

You can probably check/raise Qxs there for value if you think he'll thin vbet and bluff catch with 99 etc., you're well ahead of the range of hands he pot-controls with KQo at least.