Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Hi guys, I have begun playing some 100nl...
Unfortunately as it stands i dont have reads or tells on many players and hardly and hands to get info from? I literally have 52 hands on villian here and so far his appearance is 26/20/3b 6

I thought about it quite long on the turn, and honestly thought I should be shoving? If i shove on turn can villian call with AK and AA?(with no reads on me?_)

IPoker Network $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 901164
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $101.50
BTN: $163.72
SB: $388.14
Hero (BB): $100.00
UTG: $188.20

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with T K
UTG raises to $3.50, 2 folds, SB calls $3, Hero calls $2.50

Flop: ($10.50) 9 2 K (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets $7.00, SB folds, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($24.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $17.50, Hero calls $17.50


River: ($59.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $20.00, Hero calls $20


Should I possibly be Sqz this preflop or fold or is calling OOP ok?

Thanks in advance
Acid

In general i'd be squeezing or folding this against two TAGS pre flop so it all depends on the small blind really. If he's a fish but folds to alot of 3 bets then calling is definitely the play. Or we can squeeze to isolate him if he's very bad. Against two TAGS i think you can get in some bad spots flatting this pre but if you're not going to go too crazy with a K then i think it's fine.

Post flop i don't think raising the turn is a good play until you have more reads. It may be he's just not capable of folding his big one pair hands. However i think i'd be very tempted to shove the river. If he doesn't know you can turn hands into bluffs then on this river he's not beating anything and his bet looks so much like a one pair hand going for thinnish value. As you said you are new to this limit then i think shoving the river will be very profitable. We can easily have every set and alot of flush draws due to the pre flop action. I also think we cannot call the river since we are pretty mch never good here.
So imo on the river shoving>folding>calling.

im interested here do you think weak tight reg will fold aa or even AK if i CRAI on turn or does he snap call as the draws and K possility are out there?

Can some one check my maths please...

ok i think im shoving 90 into 42 if i C.R.A.I on turn..

BEF% = Risk/)Pot after we put in money
Risk = Amoutn we put in - Equity when called...
risk = amount we shove - (equity share of final pot if called)

i have 25% equity if called ..
thats 25 % of final pot 200$
thats 50 dollars
so risk is 40$
40/(42+90)
30% i think
so if he fold 31% of time its +ev shove i think my math might be wrong

can some one check this??

+1 to Berbatron

Can some one please help me figure out how often villian would need to fold if i have 25% equity and shove?
please & thanks

my calculations again :

Break even fold % for shove = Risk / Pot after i shove
Risk = shove-(equity when called(25%)
Risk = 89.5 - (203.5 X 25%)
Risk = $38.63

BEF% = 38.63 / (89.5 +17.5 + 24.5)
BEF% = 38.63 / 131.5
BEF% = 29.3%???

To calcualte FoldEquity you use:

x*(deadmoney to win) + (1-x)(EVcall) = 0

where, (EVcall) can be calculated in two ways:

1) (our equity)*($ we win) + (opp`s equity)*(-amount we shove)

where, $ we win = current deadmoney in pot + what`s left effectivly in stacks

2) (our equity)*(Final pot) - (amount we shove)

Now,
deadmoney = 43$
$ we win = currect pot (24.5$) + opp`s bet (17.5$) + opp`s max effective stack left, that we can win (72$) = 113$
we shove = 89.5$

x*43$ + (1-x)*((0.25*113.5$)-(0.75*89.5$) = 0
43x + (1-x)*(28.375$-67.125$) = 0
43x + (1-x)*(-38.75$) = 0

43x - 38.75 + 38.75x = 0

81.75x = 38.75

x = 0.474

or 47% for BreakEven semi-bluff shove


The thing is, here you have showdown value with your Kx toppair, so there is not much need to turn it into a semibluff, if you had something like 87s for 8 high, there would be more merit turning your hand into a semibluff obviously

actually i think, $ we win = is better calculated as: (final pot) - (amount we need to shove), which would be 203$-89.5$ = same 113.5$

We can calculate this like this:

money lost when we call must be same as money won when we win for BE.
That means.
fold% = x
x * 42$ = (100-x) * 0.75 * 72$
42x = 5400 - 54x
96x = 5400
x=56%
We need him to fold 56% of the time with my calculation

He is prolly barrelling pretty decent FD, Kx, AA, 22, 99 range.
He will prolly fold FDs, KJ, KQ. that is around 16 combos of kings. We make him fold worse FDs which is bad tho.
AA and AK are gray area.
He will call with 22, 99. 12 combos
Comparing sets vs. Kx it really falls down to AK and AA as OP claimed which makes it sort of read dependant.
But if we count in how good this shove for our image is I think we can go for it

Hmmm, Grindcore seems to think I'm correct here...

i like the line but prefer check fold on river. he isnt vbetting worst K's.

i would never fold this hand pre. i think in BB its close between call and sqz. i think sqz is a little bit better. as played i would defnetly call this turn all day. no need to raise.u dont need 2 turn ur hand into a bluff. also u cant turn ur hand into a bluff cause villian will fold rarely better hands. he wont flod a better hand and u have sd value. if u raise u just isolat against a range that beats u. also its deceptive to make a flush on river and c/r. lets say a 7 hits the river and u c/r. u just rep a backdoor flush. i wouldnt expect a tag to delay his set on this board to the river oop so u just rep a backdoor flush - hard to believe. main reason 4 call : SDvalue + draw

anybody can show 100% correct formula with explanation, calculated for semibluffing the turn with 25% equity? I mean i`m sure my is correct, but even i`m in doubt now lol

I sent a pm to Grindcore here is the message:

Hey Bart, Howsit going, Anyways I am having
> trouble with the BEF% equiton you showed me and need a little bit of help so
> we can figure this out.
>
> Here is my calcuation- It wasnt exact but should have been close to the
> number, but i get 30% and he gets 48% so there is quite a discrepency...
>
> could you help us figure where we are goin wrong please.
>
> thanks
> http://www.deucescracked.com/forums/34-Small-Stakes-Shorthanded-NL/topics/233641-Nl100-shove-or-call-turn-#posts-1925781
>
>
> http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25/probability/fe-calculation-disagreement-867154

Hey man,

We shove 89.5 and have $50.75 equity when called, so we're risking $38.75. After our shove the pot is $131, so our shove has to work 39.5/131 = 0,2958, or ~30%.


Bart