reemas
355 posts
Joined 01/2008
Tackleberry
3429 posts
Joined 10/2009
Mmmh ... ugly. You saw him playing 65% of 30 hands = ~20. How aggressive did he play postflop? 65/0 tends to be more on tha passive, call-happy side which makes me think about folding the turn in this spot.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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reemas
355 posts
Joined 01/2008
tackleberry, your thinking makes a lot of sense. ive been thinking about this for a few hours and prior to you reading your post i came up with the same analysis.
what do you think about call turn/fold river?
Posted almost 2 years ago
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Tackleberry
3429 posts
Joined 10/2009
tackleberry, your thinking makes a lot of sense. ive been thinking about this for a few hours and prior to you reading your post i came up with the same analysis.
what do you think about call turn/fold river?
Hi reemas, I honestly think that the turn is the key-decision-point. You´re either ahead (most likely a weak Q) or you´re behind (most likely a 2pair / set, occasionally AQ). It makes no sense to call the turn and then fold the river with roughly 2/3 pot size left. So either call turn, call river or fold turn.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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simpleasspie
404 posts
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theclock
151 posts
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beztro
502 posts
Joined 08/2008
Fold. He flats pot then donks pot. TP is hardly ever good in this spot.
Depends. some people are so spazzy they play any top pair no kicker like the nuts here. I'll have a hard time letting this go if he has a high aggression frequency.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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theclock
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A-LX
495 posts
Joined 09/2009
I think it kinda depends on his timing too, it tends to be a bluff when he insta pots it. But without reads I would fold here, because I agree with the above, once you call the turn here you have to call the river here, and I'm not sure if you're good often enough on the river to make your call profitable.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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FenderJaguar
Coach
877 posts
Joined 01/2008
30 hands is a small sample, you can say he's likely to be on the fishier side though.
since you don't have any reads and you have one of the strongest hands you'll have here that aren't no brainers, I would call again on the turn. you don't know if he's potting worse Q's or flush draws or whatnot, so I call/call/play poker on the river.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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terryfan
829 posts
Joined 02/2008