Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

This is situation that i had couple of minutes ago. Vilian was pretty normal TAG/regular and I was readless on him. 19/16/3.3 and 3B 7,6% after 375 hands. My guess was his on some kind of combodraw, maybe together with a pair (like AsJs, AsQs, JsTs, 9sTs, etc). I've excluded sets from his range here (well ... eventually 88 looks resonable ) - is it a good assumption?

How often he shows me JJ/KK/AA here? Should I consider those hand? As I mentioned, I was readless on him.


Ongame Network $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 579243
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $140.50
BB: $73.45
Hero (UTG): $112.55
CO: $189.15
BTN: $107.10

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG with K A
Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, SB calls $3.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($9.00) 8 J K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8.00, SB raises to $21, Hero raises to $108.55 [...]

Nice hand.

One hint - don´t include results (=> "SB calls ...") when you post your HH.

Problem is even combo draws have good equity against you, and the times he has two pair or a set he's pretty far ahead. Classic example of slightly ahead to way behind.

Board: 8s Jc Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.657% 25.47% 00.19% 4539 33.00 { AcKh }
Hand 1: 74.343% 74.16% 00.19% 13215 33.00 { JJ, 88, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJs, QsTs, Qs9s, KJo }

Classic example of slightly ahead to way behind.

Yeah, but the problem is that your range includes very few combos over all. Just add solely AT as a "bluff" hand and you´re almost breakeven. I don´t love the shove but I can´t see us folding and calling looks even worse for me.

By far prefer calling to pushing.

By far prefer calling to pushing.

Why? Villain is first-to-act on turn and have the initiative - when half the deck will hurt you ...

Why? Villain is first-to-act on turn and have the initiative - when half the deck will hurt you ...

We have a lot more equity going into just the turn than we do turn and river. And if he is gonna be the one making a mistake in this hand, it'll be on the turn not the flop.

I think I would fold to the c/r.

We have a lot more equity going into just the turn than we do turn and river. And if he is gonna be the one making a mistake in this hand, it'll be on the turn not the flop.

What are you doing on a spade turn, a 9, T, J, Q or A turn? Thats about half the deck. You could easily make a pretty big mistake on any of these cards even IP.

I would generally prefer to make my decision on the flop here between folding or shoving and I think it is pretty close. I think against a tighter reg like the one in question folding is probably best.

What are you doing on a spade turn, a 9, T, J, Q or A turn? Thats about half the deck. You could easily make a pretty big mistake on any of these cards even IP.

And you think you're overall making less of a mistake by pushing the flop when it's pretty clear he's happy to get it in?

For one thing, most of his outs are extremely obvious. A turn spade is never a card we make a mistake on, since that's obviously the easiest fold ever. Second, he's much more likely to have ATs or AQs as his big draw than he is something like 9T, QT, or JT. So even though we won't know precisely what he has on a Q or T turn, that's only 8 cards, which is pretty far from the original half deck that's been thrown 'round.

The size and frequency of mistakes he can make on the turn, compared to you, is still way worth delaying getting it in until the turn.

Yeah getting it in on the flop can't be good imo. If you want to get it in shove a non spade turn.
On the flop Calling>Folding>Raising.