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In thinking about this hand, I had a complete epiphany. For a number of years, I've been a teacher/student of clinical genetics, which is a great basis for risk analysis based on statistics. However, one of the most important components of this field is emphasizing the inability to gain knowledge based on previous action. For example, if a couple as a 25% chance of having a kid with a certain genetic disease, the risk doesn't decrease despite the fact that they may have had 6 children without the disease. Their next child will still have a 25% chance of inheriting the defect, even though the parents might be lulled into a false sense of security. This is very difficult for many people to grasp, and has to be said over and over and over again.

In relation to this hand, I sometimes revert to the thought process, "What is probability that this person has a 10 from a purely mathematical standpoint?" In this way, I completely ignore that he's giving me information by staying in the hand with what's probably top pair. This is analogous to a different situation in genetics, which I won't get into here, obv, but it explains my struggles with relative hand values and my relentless value cutting tendencies.

Summary: Yay, learning!

Hey Isac, welcome to 2/4 collection.

Disclaimer - I didn't run bad this time (atleast not for the 450 hands so far)

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
Limit Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($112)
Hero ($70.13)
UTG ($173)
CO ($193)
BTN ($152)

Dealt to Hero 67

UTG raises to $4, fold, BTN calls $4, SB calls $3, Hero calls $2,

FLOP ($16) 264

check, check, UTG bets $2, BTN calls $2, SB folds, Hero raises to $4, UTG raises to $6, BTN calls $4, Hero calls $2,

TURN ($34) 264J

check, UTG bets $4, BTN folds, Hero calls $4,

RIVER ($42) 264J7

check, UTG bets $4, Hero raises to $8, UTG calls $4,

Hero shows 67
(Flop 21.6%, Turn 11.4%)

UTG shows QQ
(Flop 78.4%, Turn 88.6%)

Hero wins $56

biggest $$ pot ever for me

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
Limit Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($122)
Hero ($90.88)
UTG ($175)
UTG+1 ($36)
CO ($197)
BTN ($93.75)

Dealt to Hero AQ

UTG raises to $4 , UTG+1 calls $4, fold, BTN calls $4, fold, Hero raises to $6 , UTG calls $2, UTG+1 calls $2, BTN calls $2,

FLOP ($25) 4TJ

Hero bets $2 , UTG calls $2, UTG+1 calls $2, BTN calls $2,

TURN ($33) 4TJ2

check, UTG bets $4 , UTG+1 folds, BTN calls $4, Hero calls $4,

RIVER ($45) 4TJ2K

check, UTG bets $4, BTN folds, Hero raises to $8, UTG raises to $12, Hero raises to $16 , UTG calls $4,

Hero shows AQ
(Flop 17.5%, Turn 9.1%)

UTG shows TT
(Flop 82.5%, Turn 90.9%)

Hero wins $74

nice job sir

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
Limit Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($116)
Hero ($126)
UTG ($31)
UTG+1 ($31)
UTG+2 ($149)
MP1 ($110)
MP2 ($127)
MP3 ($200)
CO ($157)
BTN ($40.50)

Dealt to Hero 99

fold, UTG+1 calls $2, fold, fold, fold, check, BTN calls $2, SB calls $1, Hero raises to $4, UTG+1 calls $2, fold, BTN calls $2, SB calls $2,

FLOP ($18) 8A2

check, Hero bets $2, UTG+1 calls $2, BTN folds, SB folds,

TURN ($22) 8A27

Hero bets $4, UTG+1 calls $4,

RIVER ($30) 8A27A

check, check,

Hero shows 99
(Flop 13.3%, Turn 4.5%)

UTG+1 shows TA
(Flop 86.7%, Turn 95.5%)

UTG+1 wins $28.50

big pot, I lost but IMO good play by both, only time I choose not to cap becasue he had tightened up, would the hand have played much different?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
Limit Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($185)
BB ($27)
UTG ($86.75)
Hero ($179)
CO ($147)
BTN ($212)

Dealt to Hero TK

Hero raises to $4, fold, SB raises to $6, fold, Hero calls $2,

FLOP ($14) KT8

SB bets $2, Hero raises to $4, SB raises to $6, Hero calls $2,

TURN ($26) KT85

SB bets $4, Hero raises to $8, SB raises to $12, Hero calls $4,

RIVER ($50) KT859

SB bets $4, Hero calls $4,

SB shows 88
(Flop 78.7%, Turn 70.5%)

Hero shows TK
(Flop 21.3%, Turn 29.5%)

SB wins $56

EPIC

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
Limit Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($54.50)
BB ($195)
UTG ($102)
UTG+1 ($161)
CO ($88)
Hero ($233)

Dealt to Hero 97

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $4 , SB calls $3, fold,

FLOP ($10) Q87

check, Hero bets $2 , SB calls $2,

TURN ($14) Q878

check, Hero bets $4 , SB calls $4,

RIVER ($22) Q8789

check, check,

Hero shows 97
(Flop 52.9%, Turn 9.1%)

SB shows A5
(Flop 47.1%, Turn 90.9%)

SB wins $21

It's kind of sick that when you loose 4 big pots, you loose 25BB's but $100... It's nothing, just need to get used to it - luckily it's then same when winning the big pots

woooowwww 2/4..... feels like nosebleeds man!

Summary: Yay, learning!

Yay!

selection of nasty coolers

Better out than in. Know what you mean about losing bigger pots takes a bit of getting used to. I think i heard plans that hem was going to do some BB display thing on the hud to replace dollars, i do hope something comes of that.

Their next child will still have a 25% chance of inheriting the defect, even though the parents might be lulled into a false sense of security. This is very difficult for many people to grasp, and has to be said over and over and over again.

This is perhaps the most interesting part to me because it is the opposite of the gambler's fallacy.*

*Review since otherwise my comment will make no sense. Imagine you are flipping a fair coin. It has come up heads 8 times in a row. Is it now more likely to come up heads on the next flip? People who fall victim to the gambler's fallacy will (incorrectly) say yes.

Perhaps some new terminology is in order for this phenomenon? The stupid person fallacy? If you think that's redundant I can live with, 'the person fallacy.'

*Sees Tumbleweed*

*CLAP CLAP* OI!!!!

That's better. How's everyone's month going, I've started at 1/2 and gotta say that I'm up vs epic genius:

Party Poker $1.00/$2.00 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BTN with 7 8
2 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, CO 3-bets, Hero calls

Flop: (7.5 SB) Q Q 5 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: (3.75 BB) 6 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: (3.75 BB) A (2 players)
CO bets, Hero folds

Final Pot: 3.75 BB
CO shows Q Q
CO wins 2.625 BB
CO wins 1 BB
(Rake: $0.25)

O wait.

Nah, in all seriousness not had much time for poker recently, been either 150 miles from home or at work . But day off today where some kind souls are going to pick up my car for me and gonna get some hands in. The goal is 3000VPPs this month (Which will put me to 75000 for the year...don't ask) then it's just a matter of the grind to nova.....oh yeah and winning, can't forget that. I'd like to be able to HOLD ON to Nova once I get there

Hey Boomer,

Have you figured out how many hands/month you need at 1/2 to reach NOVA?

*Sees Tumbleweed*

*CLAP CLAP* OI!!!!

That's better. How's everyone's month going, I've started at 1/2 and gotta say that I'm up vs epic genius:

Party Poker $1.00/$2.00 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BTN with 7 8
2 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, CO 3-bets, Hero calls

Flop: (7.5 SB) Q Q 5 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: (3.75 BB) 6 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: (3.75 BB) A (2 players)
CO bets, Hero folds

Final Pot: 3.75 BB
CO shows Q Q
CO wins 2.625 BB
CO wins 1 BB
(Rake: $0.25)

O wait.

He missed so much value vs your range, gues he wound't have check-raised you on the flop. Maybe on the turn... omg

btw in the spirit of 3betting from the BB which was a topic in the HG, here's a borderline examples of why to do it vs a tight-predictable TAG-steal.

BTN was a tight TAG of 17/10/2 - with a 28% stealing range, folded high to cbets

Dealt to Hero 44

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $4 , fold, Hero raises to $6 , BTN calls $2,

FLOP ($13) 879

Hero bets $2 , BTN calls $2,

TURN ($17) 879K

Hero bets $4 , BTN folds, ,

Sure I probably had the best hand, but the importance of having the lead here is enormous IMO, I would have had a tough time calling his turn cbet - but very easy fold had he raised me.

Hey Boomer,

Have you figured out how many hands/month you need at 1/2 to reach NOVA?

Pretty much

My target for this month is to hit 3000VPPs which, due to my being from the Uk and thus elligible for awesome promos, will grant me 70,000 VPPs at month end.

This will bring me, give or take to 75,000 on the year since I wasn't playing on Stars until like Mid April.

25,000 VPPs until Supernova then and 7 months to do it, so round about 3,500 VPPs per month.

At 1/2, my current watering hole, that would take about 8,500-9000 hands a month or, give or take, about 35-40 hours of play a month (since I 3-table and have guessed 250 hands/hr).

2/4 isn't that much different VPP-wise to 1/2 (I think it's like 0.45VPP/hand rahter than 0.4).

If i made it to 3/6, which I'm hoping to at least get to by the end of the year, I'd need about 5,000 hands a month and at 5/T it'd be just over 3,000 but then again if I were at 5/T I'd be looking to hit Nova with or without a 70k bonus if it were taken over a year

It's all going great for me this month so far.

Up 280 BB at 0.50 / 1.00

Recovered from the -$100 of insanity tilt the very next day

The coaching sessions i'm having with Pygmy are helping me loads and i'm starting to see an improvement in my play.Lots and lots more to do not getting complacent.

On top of that i've just locked down platinum on stars

The last few days have been a bit quiet, lots of drinking and recoving from said drinking.

Party Poker $0.50/$1.00 Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 122873
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is UTG with Q A
Hero raises, 2 folds, BTN calls, 1 fold, BB calls

Flop: (6.5 SB) 7 2 3 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BTN calls, BB raises, Hero calls, BTN calls

Turn: (6.25 BB) 3 (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, BTN calls

River: (9.25 BB) A (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BTN folds, BB calls

Final Pot: 13.25 BB
Hero shows Q A
Hero wins 12.75 BB
(Rake: $0.50)

A couple of hands from a sng i just played. Wasn't involved in either but they did make be chuckle. Getting a feel for limit sngs


Poker Stars $1.00+$0.20 Limit Hold'em Tournament - t30/t60 Limit - 9 players - View hand 123527
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+2: t1370 M = 30.44
MP1: t1605 M = 35.67
MP2: t700 M = 15.56
Hero (CO): t1425 M = 31.67
BTN: t1925 M = 42.78
SB: t860 M = 19.11
BB: t130 M = 2.89
UTG: t2425 M = 53.89
UTG+1: t3060 M = 68

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is CO with J 8
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls

Flop: (11 SB) 3 2 5 (5 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls

Turn: (7.5 BB) 4 (4 players)
SB bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds

River: (10.5 BB) 6 (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, SB 3-bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 caps!, SB calls, UTG+2 calls

Final Pot: 22.5 BB
UTG+2 mucks A 2
MP1 shows 8 7 (a straight, Four to Eight)
SB mucks 7 4
MP1 wins 22.5 BB


Poker Stars $1.00+$0.20 Limit Hold'em Tournament - t30/t60 Limit - 9 players - View hand 123528
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: t1490 M = 33.11
CO: t2385 M = 53
BTN: t820 M = 18.22
Hero (SB): t1440 M = 32
BB: t1970 M = 43.78
UTG: t1160 M = 25.78
UTG+1: t1120 M = 24.89
UTG+2: t2425 M = 53.89
MP1: t690 M = 15.33

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is SB with 2 Q
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 raises, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 caps!, CO calls, UTG+1 calls

Flop: (13.5 SB) K 8 5 (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP1 raises, CO 3-bets, UTG+1 caps!, MP1 calls, CO calls

Turn: (12.75 BB) 9 (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP1 raises, CO calls, UTG+1 3-bets, MP1 caps!, CO calls, UTG+1 calls

River: (24.75 BB) 4 (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, MP1 raises, CO calls, UTG+1 3-bets, MP1 raises all in, CO folds, UTG+1 calls

Final Pot: 33.75 BB
UTG+1 shows K 9 (two pair, Kings and Nines)
MP1 shows 5 5 (three of a kind, Fives)
MP1 wins 33.75 BB

Great things happens in the SnG's - is it our new home?

How you get max value from your big hands - but when you turn your TPTK into bluff catchers everytime - no one will ever bluff you

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
Limit Holdem $20(BB) Replayer
($1,880)
Hero ($1,120)

Dealt to Hero T3

Hero raises to $40, raises to $60, Hero calls $20,

FLOP ($120) A39

check, Hero bets $20, calls $20,

TURN ($160) A39J

check, check,

RIVER ($160) A39J5

check, check,

shows KA
(Flop 82.4%, Turn 88.6%)

Hero shows T3
(Flop 17.6%, Turn 11.4%)

wins $160

Result vice this month is going super, however I will not get enough hands in, probably finish the month with about 4k cash-game hands. Better than nothing I assume.

More of a holiday home for me Isac, rather than the nursing home that is LHE cash hehe.

More of a holiday home for me Isac, rather than the nursing home that is LHE cash hehe.

LHE cash is like an asylum But you're there voluntarily and it's easy to get up and leave when group therapy gets a little messy. So unless you have the discipline to stay, it's almost pointless.

LHE SnG, also like an asylum, but your stay is mandatory until they release you, so you get more things accomplished whether you like it or not ^.^

Ah I see normality at 1/2 has swiftly returned...

Party Poker $1.00/$2.00 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is MP with 5 5
UTG calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BTN calls, 1 fold, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero calls, BTN calls

Flop: (12.5 SB) K T 5 (4 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, BTN calls, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero caps!, BTN calls, BB calls, UTG calls

Turn: (14.25 BB) J (4 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, BTN calls, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero calls, BTN calls

River: (26.25 BB) 3 (4 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls, BTN folds

Final Pot: 29.25 BB
BB shows K K
BB wins 28.75 BB
(Rake: $1.00)

Think my turn raise may be a little optimistic but jeez so many padding the pot and he's got to have a worse hand sometimes right? Once he 3-bets I'm just crying.

And while I'm at it...ha ha yes very funny...

Party Poker $1.00/$2.00 Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BB with K 7
1 fold, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero calls

Flop: (4.5 SB) 8 K 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO calls

Turn: (4.25 BB) T (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls

River: (6.25 BB) Q (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls

Final Pot: 10.25 BB
CO shows T T
CO wins 9.75 BB
(Rake: $1.00)

May have gotten some action if he didn't feel the need to Epic Slowplay but that seems to be standard nowadays