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Top Set Lead Into Bad Turn

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Pure17

Avatar for Pure17

151 posts
Joined 01/2008

Villain is a fish 77/31 after 54 hands with a 40% limp. 1.3% aggression. Flop fold to cbet 80%. WTSD 41%.

I have no reads on his post flop play so far. Turn bothers me. I feel like if villain's bluffing then it's really easy for him to bluff again on a number of river cards. However, I do think a pot lead from a fish is the nuts here most of the time especially with his low aggression so far.

If he is value betting then I have 23% equity with some implied odds if I hit given his high wtsd. Of course in game I was low on time playing multiple tables and didn't think this through. Should I always be peeling with some chance of best hand + potential implied odds even though I'm getting bad immediate odds?

Poker Stars $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Hi $0.20 Ante - 6 players - View hand 1847451
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $100.00
UTG: $179.30
MP: $372.22
CO: $608.50
BTN: $109.70
SB: $132.91

Pre Flop: ($2.70) Hero is BB with 3 Club J Heart J Club 5 Heart
3 folds, BTN raises to $3, SB calls $2.50, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($10.20) J Diamond T Spade 5 Diamond (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $9.74, BTN folds, SB calls $9.74

Turn: ($29.68) 8 Heart (2 players)
SB bets $28.34, Hero folds

Posted 10 months ago

snarble5

Avatar for snarble5

1685 posts
Joined 07/2010

how do you think he's playing on various river cards when he no longer has the nuts? you can call and consider bluffing different cards but vs this guy I probably just fold since he's going to put you on whatever draw missed/not care and call because he has the nuts.

Posted 10 months ago

Columbo

Avatar for Columbo

64 posts
Joined 01/2012

I would call if you KNOW villain is that fishy that he wil x/c a (~45ish) bet when the board pairs.
Otherwise I would just fold because of the bad odds.

Posted 10 months ago

kkeorc

Avatar for kkeorc

345 posts
Joined 09/2008

Am I the only one who snapfolds this preflop?

One other thing to consider is what you would do on a Diamond river and he checks. If that would be a good opportunity to bluff then calling the turn might not be that bad.

Posted 10 months ago

shuttle

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3333 posts
Joined 11/2008

I wouldn't be folding the turn here.

Posted 10 months ago

Kulk

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1350 posts
Joined 11/2008

In my opinion we have to make the decision to fold or call, call non flush rivers. I would prolly just fold when a fish donks pot here and we havent seen him make large bluffs yet

Posted 9 months ago

RI_Don

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9 posts
Joined 05/2010

i find 80% Ftcb with a 41% WTSD really odd. I guess it means whenever he goes beyond the flop he never folds. If that's the case then probably 75% of the time he's going to pay us off on rivers when we fill up. However, we won't be able to bluff flushes because he'll always call us with his straights.

So I think we need to figure out if he has enough behind for us to call with the less than 25% equity we have on the turn against his straights. Looking at stacks, I think it's pretty close. wish his WTSD was a bit lower, because I think we could add the flush cards as bluff outs.

As it is, I think folding might be the right play here even though villain probably pays off when we fill up. It just won't happen often enough to be profitable against this villain.

Posted 9 months ago

Kulk

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1350 posts
Joined 11/2008



So I think we need to figure out if he has enough behind for us to call with the less than 25% equity we have on the turn against his straights. Looking at stacks, I think it's pretty close. wish his WTSD was a bit lower, because I think we could add the flush cards as bluff outs.


This doesnt make sense for me. You are asking if we have enough implied odds for when we fill up but at the same time you expect to villain to fold flush rivers

Posted 9 months ago

RI_Don

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9 posts
Joined 05/2010

sorry...what I wrote may have been confusing. I meant to say that he WON'T fold flush rivers and thus our ability to bluff when a flush card hit goes down and we're not going to hit often enough for a call here to be playable, in my opinion.

Posted 9 months ago

pfeffer-kopf2

Avatar for pfeffer-kopf2

14 posts
Joined 06/2012

I do think thats a fold preflop actually.
And if already got there , calling the turn is fine. He probably has also a 10 in his hand , and you are getting very good implied odds if you pair that 10.

Posted 9 months ago

Kulk

Avatar for Kulk

1350 posts
Joined 11/2008

I do think thats a fold preflop actually.
And if already got there , calling the turn is fine. He probably has also a 10 in his hand , and you are getting very good implied odds if you pair that 10.


Why? Because he now has a pair to go with his Q9?

I don't think it makes much sense for villain to donk 2 pair on the turn unless he is turning it into a bluff. I don't think someone has 88 unless its Q988 and a TT is likely to c/r the flop and unlikely to donk the turn when it just got weaker.

And I would fold this preflop. I'm not playing JJ in this spot unless it also has 2 broadways and a suit. Or maybe a JJT9ss
The hand looks nice because of the double suits. But we should think about how they contribute to the hand? IMO they only function as back-up equity when we flop a set. If we dont flop a set we are never continuing with the hand uless its checked trough. So we are basically calling pre to set mine which I don't think is really good with JJ

Posted 9 months ago




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